NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18h out is when the precip enters into ga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You are talking about the lowest elevation reading. look at the temperature at higher elevations. Hour 51 Sounding: PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 999. 208.E -2.7 -3.7 46.3 4.1 975. 402. -4.7 -5.4 48.8 6.5 950. 606. -5.6 -6.4 59.5 8.8 925. 816. -4.0 -4.5 85.6 8.3 900. 1033. -2.4 -2.8 108.4 5.7 875. 1257. -1.7 -1.9 118.2 3.1 850. 1487. -1.3 -1.5 144.6 1.8 825. 1726. -1.4 -1.7 185.3 3.7 800. 1971. -2.4 -2.5 196.6 7.8 775. 2222. -2.7 -2.9 197.6 14.6 750. 2483. -2.1 -2.2 212.0 21.8 725. 2753. -2.0 -2.0 226.2 26.8 700. 3031. -3.1 -3.2 236.4 27.7 650. 3614. -6.8 -7.4 248.3 22.4 600. 4234. -11.3 -12.8 251.2 18.2 550. 4895. -15.6 -21.7 257.0 22.3 500. 5608. -19.4 -30.1 254.3 26.9 450. 6383. -24.8 -38.1 254.9 28.3 400. 7229. -30.8 -46.2 256.4 31.2 350. 8161. -38.3 -50.8 253.4 34.5 300. 9201. -46.5 -53.9 249.4 40.6 250. 10392. -51.5 -60.9 243.4 53.6 200. 11835. -53.4 -66.9 247.8 52.4 150. 13675. -57.6 -72.5 250.0 45.5 100. 16171. -65.7 -78.1 268.6 33.1 50. 20343. -66.1 -87.7 259.0 20.1 Hour 54 sounding: PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 999. 208.E -2.4 -3.5 44.7 5.1 975. 404. -4.3 -4.7 49.3 8.7 950. 608. -4.9 -5.4 62.3 12.0 925. 818. -2.7 -3.1 84.1 10.1 900. 1036. -0.9 -1.2 95.5 6.9 875. 1262. -0.3 -0.5 100.2 5.5 850. 1494. -0.5 -0.6 141.6 5.6 825. 1732. -0.9 -0.9 164.8 11.8 800. 1978. -0.8 -0.7 178.6 18.3 775. 2232. -0.5 -0.6 195.6 21.9 750. 2494. -0.5 -0.6 213.9 22.9 725. 2765. -1.2 -1.2 230.2 21.9 700. 3044. -3.1 -3.1 239.5 18.9 650. 3626. -7.7 -11.2 239.3 15.4 600. 4244. -11.0 -17.4 250.9 15.2 550. 4908. -14.2 -25.5 256.1 20.2 500. 5624. -19.1 -33.5 255.6 23.5 450. 6399. -24.7 -39.8 254.4 24.8 400. 7244. -31.3 -45.0 252.7 26.9 350. 8172. -39.5 -47.0 251.6 29.6 300. 9207. -47.9 -51.9 250.8 33.8 250. 10393. -52.5 -62.7 250.2 42.9 200. 11834. -53.0 -68.0 251.1 54.7 150. 13668. -57.8 -73.0 251.4 40.8 100. 16172. -65.2 -78.6 267.5 34.1 50. 20360. -65.7 -87.3 264.1 20.1 So it probably doesnt change over at KCLT until sometime around 10PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Burger and Strong, If my memory is correct gulf convection only robs moisture upstream if it is negatively tilted or runs west to east across the gulf. This would disrupt moisture flow coming out of the gulf. I'm not sure about positively tilted convection enhancing precip upstream but I could see how it could. I'm fairly certain if it's positively tilted you get enhanced precip amounts upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If it's not too much to ask (and I hope it's not) after the NAM 0z runs...could someone list soundings or snow/ice amounts for the major cities in the southeast impacted by the storm? I think this is usually done anyway, mostly..right? I'm just trying to see if there's going to be any consistency here from the last few runs. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the storm is less than 24 hours away per the name....by 21 precip edge is to far n ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Radar returns from Texas are really popping in the last 3 or 4 frames http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_texas_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 @24 it's so far north Robert may have been right we have to worry more about the western portions getting slammed and us missing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still closed off at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm fairly certain if it's positively tilted you get enhanced precip amounts upstream. Yeah I don't know the exact science behind it but I'm guessing a postive tilted convected line moving across the gulf coast would act as an enhancer providing a stronger transport of gulf moisture inland. However, if the line races out ahead of the main s/w it will still rob moisture. It would only enhace precip upsteam if the line moves slowly and with the main L/P moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good grief its stil closed in southern Arkansas at 24 hours. We can stop this NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like heavier precipitation has come further north @ 24. This could be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What is killing NC and even up to me is that INSANE dry air. Most of you are on twister data like me..click a sounding for your region-- -30 or so from 800 mb up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM went from a dusting in South Central Arkansas to burying them in one model run 24 hours from the event. That just goes to show you how wishy-washy qpf outputs are for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If it's not too much to ask (and I hope it's not) after the NAM 0z runs...could someone list soundings or snow/ice amounts for the major cities in the southeast impacted by the storm? I think this is usually done anyway, mostly..right? I'm just trying to see if there's going to be any consistency here from the last few runs. Thank you! Here's the website so you can do this yourself for the NAM, GFS and RUC. I know that I have spent too much time trying to disect every sounding, for every model run, for every city close to me, for...well you'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 areas just north and nw of Jackson and in southenr Arkansas have almost 1 foot of snow by 30 hours. This is a huge change in favor of the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some NWS forecaster who is responsible for Pine Bluff and southern Arkansas just saw the 0z NAM 24 hour precip chart and just spilled his coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What a run. By 33 hours the vort has opened and in central Mississippi. All of nw GA and northern half of Alabama and southern Tennessee is getting bombed by heavy snow rates. I'm hoping the upper low has really weakend by then, or this will cut furthern west of the Apps. So far its aiming right for the Southern Apps and western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah I don't know the exact science behind it but I'm guessing a postive tilted convected line moving across the gulf coast would act as an enhancer providing a stronger transport of gulf moisture inland. However, if the line races out ahead of the main s/w it will still rob moisture. It would only enhace precip upsteam if the line moves slowly and with the main L/P moving through. just kidding it's free http://journals.amet...0.1175/WAF986.1 Paper one of my professors worked on with a grad student. Discusses this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Whoooooo! at 36, the strong closed low remnants are aiming at Ga and the western Carolinas verbatim. Heavy snow rates for nrn Ala, southern and eastern Tn and northern half of GA nd western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Haven't paid for my membership to AMS yet so just the abstract. http://journals.amet...0.1175/WAF986.1 Paper one of my professors worked on with a grad student. Discusses this. Thanks I was just reading an article very about it... great read and very informative. Here is a link to what I was reading for anyone who is interested http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF986.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triad SKYWARN Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Attached are some of the thoughts from RAH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I already have 3" at 33 hours on the Twisterdata snow map! Looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol @42 the precip goes straight south WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Date: 36 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 10 JAN 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 223 SFC 998 239 -3.2 -8.1 69 4.8 -4.7 117 2 270.1 270.4 268.5 275.8 2.08 2 950 626 -6.6 -9.1 83 2.5 -7.4 80 5 270.5 270.8 268.7 276.0 2.02 3 900 1047 -7.9 -9.9 86 2.0 -8.5 123 6 273.3 273.7 270.5 278.9 2.00 4 850 1492 -6.4 -8.1 87 1.7 -7.0 128 5 279.4 279.9 274.8 286.3 2.43 5 800 1968 -4.2 -5.4 91 1.3 -4.7 205 7 286.7 287.3 279.5 295.9 3.18 6 750 2477 -5.2 -6.1 94 0.9 -5.6 231 15 290.9 291.4 281.5 300.3 3.22 7 700 3016 -7.0 -7.4 97 0.4 -7.1 242 25 294.8 295.3 283.1 304.1 3.14 8 650 3593 -8.2 -8.6 97 0.4 -8.4 247 37 299.7 300.2 284.9 309.0 3.06 9 600 4213 -10.2 -10.6 97 0.4 -10.4 249 54 304.3 304.9 286.5 313.2 2.83 10 550 4879 -13.5 -14.4 93 0.9 -13.8 254 63 308.0 308.4 287.2 315.3 2.28 11 500 5598 -17.9 -19.2 90 1.3 -18.2 252 65 311.2 311.6 287.7 316.8 1.68 12 450 6378 -23.2 -25.3 83 2.1 -23.7 239 66 314.1 314.3 288.0 317.8 1.09 13 400 7228 -29.8 -33.4 71 3.6 -30.3 230 69 316.2 316.3 288.2 318.2 0.57 14 350 8164 -37.3 -42.1 61 4.8 -37.7 234 83 318.4 318.4 288.5 319.4 0.27 15 300 9211 -44.8 -51.5 47 6.7 -45.1 236 104 322.2 322.2 289.6 322.6 0.11 16 250 10406 -52.9 -59.3 46 6.3 -53.1 237 108 327.4 327.4 291.0 327.6 0.05 17 200 11828 -56.7 -64.5 37 7.8 -56.9 241 96 343.0 343.0 295.1 343.1 0.03 18 150 13650 -57.6 -69.7 20 12.1 -57.8 246 87 370.8 370.8 300.7 370.9 0.02 19 100 16164 -65.1 -77.6 16 12.5 -65.2 254 63 402.0 402.0 305.5 402.1 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dry air just eating the precip up in NC Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 this run is pretty big for southern tier of Tenn., northern Ala, nrn Ga and southern Ark,. by 42 hours, and the 850 warms between 39 and 42 in ATL, because the 5H is stronger I suppose. By this hour its over nrn GA and western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 better then 18z NAM but wonder why it's still trying to push all that heavy moisture south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol @42 the precip goes straight south WTF I'm convinced it just can't budge the dry air-- -30 C, losing the push from the GOM because the vort died..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dry air just eating the precip up in NC Monday morning. Thanks, hopefully that won't be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We just can't get any precip into the RDU area. It just seems we have to many things to overcome to get this to work out in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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