burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From the graphs of temperatures at different heights, it appears the transition to sleet will occur between the following hours for the following locations: (times are subject to vary) CLT- 14-18 EST Monday AVL- 19-23 EST Monday ATL- 5-7 EST Monday CAE- 8:30-12 EST Monday Please show me what models Have snow switching to sleet in charlotte earlier than 18z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Please show me what models Have snow switching to sleet in charlotte earlier than 18z.... http://shrmc.ggy.uga.edu/soundings.php?city=kclt&submit=view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://shrmc.ggy.uga...clt&submit=view Am I looking at something wrong? That link you sent me shows a model that only goes out to 12z Monday and at the time the warmest reading through the sounding for kclt is about -3.5. Edit: I got it to out past 48 hours... The warmest reading in the sounding for 18z is about -2 C. How is that a sleet sounding?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RGEM shows all snow for GSP to CLT in both the 12z and 18z runs. Hopes it's right, but I have found the GFS to do really well with temps in this area the past 2 winters, which suggests a definite changeover to ice. 18z RGEM also slightly healthier with the southern wave compared to NAM and GFS at 6z Mon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 802 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... .WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091015- /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.110110T1200Z-110111T1800Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO... RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY... SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO... ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 802 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS AFFECTED: ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING...THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE REST OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/8 TO LOCALLY 1/4 INCH MAY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION...AND NORTH OF FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * TIMING: SNOW MAY BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY IN THE ALBEMARLE TO WADESBORO AREA...THEN REACH THE TRIAD AND POSSIBLY FAYETTEVILLE BY NOON. THE SNOW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE TRANSITION TO MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY EVENING...WITH MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH THE SNOWFALL ON MONDAY...WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURES: WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES MONDAY...THEN FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE 32 IN THE FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The following would be really bad Jeremy..... ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/8 TO LOCALLY 1/4 INCH MAY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 802 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The following would be really bad Jeremy..... ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/8 TO LOCALLY 1/4 INCH MAY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. They are basically putting me in the heart of the ice storm. That could be really nasty on top of snow accumulation. Get out the generators! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The following would be really bad Jeremy..... ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/8 TO LOCALLY 1/4 INCH MAY OCCUR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. Tree damage due to ice gets exponentially worse as the thickness increases similar to the way damage from a hurricane increases as the cats increase. 1/4" really isn't bad. It really starts picking up once you get to around 3/8". TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I really hope that if there is any icing that it will be very minimal. Hopefully it will stay snow a lot longer than things are expected at the moment. I'd rather get nothing than enough freezing rain to take down trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I assume it depends on the tree. Old, newer.. I had a large branch break off an old tree onto our chicken cage with the 5" I got on Christmas! Add 1/4" on that... Not good. 3/8" would be a beast then!! Tree damage due to ice gets exponentially worse as the thickness increases similar to the way damage from a hurricane increases as the cats increase. 1/4" really isn't bad. It really starts picking up once you get to around 3/8". TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I assume it depends on the tree. Old, newer.. I had a large branch break off an old tree onto our chicken cage with the 5" I got on Christmas! Add 1/4" on that... Not good. 3/8" would be a beast then!! Let's not forget 2-4 inches of snow plus ice in this case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks like 7 of the 18z GFS Ensemble members wants to give NC considerably more moisture than the operational with 3 members about the same or slightly less than the op. The biggest discrepency that I see with the operational, however, is the lack of moisture in northern Mississippi and Alabama. I'm pretty sure that it is significantly underdone. Check it out: 18z GFS Ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denver729 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just saw a thing on TWC that a 1/2" of ice adds 500 pounds to power lines! Yeah I saw that, too! Here's hoping and praying for the best out of this situation..which would mean...MINIMAL freezing rain as possible. I mean sleet can be just as bad...but at least it bounces. I know when temperatures are right, it can start to cling to power lines...but it's mainly freezing rain that does the significant icing damage. I live in Columbia, SC...I've heard it all on snow and ice amounts. 3-5, 2-4 snow... there's been 1/4" ice... The Weather Channel has been fairly consistent with our area. The updated maps takes that nasty pink/red type color away from us on Monday...and it's mostly snow/sleet..then sleet. Boy I hope that's right. I hope the 0z runs turn out a little colder. Just SLIGHTLY would make a difference. Good luck guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z RGEM also slightly healthier with the southern wave compared to NAM and GFS at 6z Mon... That is a red flag, literally, Gulf coast convection will have to be closely monitored as it would throw a curveball in QPF amounts upstream. Looking over the high res regional models which are starting to get the event inside there window, both the 12z NMM and ARW show strong convection in the GOM, and along the coast east of LA. ARW sim valid 6z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Radars in TX are about to explode over the next 5 hours, should be fun to watch. S.Texas has a slight risk for severe tonight.Starting to see a few oranges and reds on the radar down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah I saw that, too! Here's hoping and praying for the best out of this situation..which would mean...MINIMAL freezing rain as possible. I mean sleet can be just as bad...but at least it bounces. I know when temperatures are right, it can start to cling to power lines...but it's mainly freezing rain that does the significant icing damage. I live in Columbia, SC...I've heard it all on snow and ice amounts. 3-5, 2-4 snow... there's been 1/4" ice... The Weather Channel has been fairly consistent with our area. The updated maps takes that nasty pink/red type color away from us on Monday...and it's mostly snow/sleet..then sleet. Boy I hope that's right. I hope the 0z runs turn out a little colder. Just SLIGHTLY would make a difference. Good luck guys! 1/2 inch would be critical. If winds get up it will be really bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RGEM shows all snow for GSP to CLT in both the 12z and 18z runs. Hopes it's right, but I have found the GFS to do really well with temps in this area the past 2 winters, which suggests a definite changeover to ice. I actually think I've seen GSP is pretty fond of either the RGEM or GGEM down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is a red flag, literally, Gulf coast convection will have to be closely monitored as it would throw a curveball in QPF amounts upstream. Looking over the high res regional models which are starting to get the event inside there window, both the 12z NMM and ARW show strong convection in the GOM, and along the coast east of LA. ARW sim valid 6z Monday Doesn't it depend on how the band is directed....I thought if it's kind of facing more a positive angle it enhancement upstream? Someone did a case on it with some diagrams but I couldn't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Alan did. Had posted it last year when we were having the same topic.. Doesn't it depend on how the band is directed....I thought if it's kind of facing more a positive angle it enhancement upstream? Someone did a case on it with some diagrams but I couldn't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z is further north than 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For it to only be at 6 hours, pretty significant differences, imo, with the s/w. More of neutral tilt and the s/w itself looks more consolidated and stronger compared to 18z at 12 hours. 00z is further north than 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SREF's continue to be very wet for TN and NC. The 21z runs are even better than the 15z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 @15 the NAM is picking up the north trend, also vort is stronger...this might be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Doesn't it depend on how the band is directed....I thought if it's kind of facing more a positive angle it enhancement upstream? Someone did a case on it with some diagrams but I couldn't find them. I do not understand the specifics involved all that well, although it usually degrades moisture in NC, rather than enhancing hit. The link below is for a ppt from NCSU on the topic, it is about 15 megs, and a good read illustrating the effect. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/workshops/Mahoney_UC_CSTAR.ppt This is a zoom of the 18z RGEM, the QPF amounts of 3" just south of Mobile Bay towards the western Panhandle are indicative of convection, and you can see the affect in southern AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For it to only be at 6 hours, pretty significant differences, imo, with the s/w. More of neutral tilt and the s/w itself looks more consolidated and stronger compared to 18z at 12 hours. Yep you're right about this, probably weenie of me but the 00z model could have much better data ingest which is why we are seeing these changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Am I looking at something wrong? That link you sent me shows a model that only goes out to 12z Monday and at the time the warmest reading through the sounding for kclt is about -3.5. Edit: I got it to out past 48 hours... The warmest reading in the sounding for 18z is about -2 C. How is that a sleet sounding?? You are talking about the lowest elevation reading. look at the temperature at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The new nam is closing this off again at 18. Its pretty obvious now the RUC is right, this is going to be a strong upper low and already the precip is outperforming even the RUC and all models. We're treading on thin ice here, this could be a much bigger deal than any model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You are talking about the lowest elevation reading. look at the temperature at higher elevations. No... I'm looking at the skew-t diagram from the surface to 200mb.... do you know how to read a skew-t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Burger and Strong, If my memory is correct gulf convection only robs moisture upstream if it is negatively tilted or runs west to east across the gulf. This would disrupt moisture flow coming out of the gulf. I'm not sure about positively tilted convection enhancing precip upstream but I could see how it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 @21 vort is much stronger and qpf is further north love this trend but let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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