POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The trends are ever more discouraging. Looks like another 0.5" or less event with some light zr to ice the crapcake. Then it warms up and I'm sure La Nina will assert itself again and winter will be over. All I have to say is thank God. One of the worst winters in a while. Nothing but nickle and dime events despite a cold pattern. Would rather have 50s and 60s than this borderline crap. The RUC is not to be used for forecasting past a few hours. Why is Foothills proposing that? This storm can't possibly trend better because it is dying no matter what. Usually, precip ends up being overdone by the models, so if the models are only showing light precip, expect even less. I think it's safe for N AL, MS and GA to get excited, up into upstate SC, but it's over for most of NC. The storm and the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some of you guys trip me out man....There was a LOOOOOOOONG period of time when EVERYONE was happy as hell with a 2-4" snow event and or a good CAD event....Now, that we have seen some snows over the last couple of years. Everyone is pissed if they only get 2-4" of snow or some sleet or some freezing rain with a CAD event. Sounds like some people are getting greedy and forgetting they live in the SE US!!!!! Chill out and just sit back and enjoy what you may get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS 18z ensembles. A little more precip in north GA than the op but the precip in NC looks about the same to me at a quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You sure about that? The models only show 6 hour accumulations and that means actual accumulation, not just radar returns. Also, the precip generation may not be that great, but it may not matter for the overall accuracy of the models. In other words, looking at a radar loop showing spotty very light precip doesn't really mean much. In six hours the moisture showing up in Texas was just on the south end, looks like good spread across most of Texas with light precip breaking...oh WTF you got me to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some of you guys trip me out man....There was a LOOOOOOOONG period of time when EVERYONE was happy as hell with a 2-4" snow event and or a good CAD event....Now, that we have seen some snows over the last couple of years. Everyone is pissed if they only get 2-4" of snow or some sleet or some freezing rain with a CAD event. Sounds like some people are getting greedy and forgetting they live in the SE US!!!!! Chill out and just sit back and enjoy what you may get. I struggle to get 2-4" while areas around me get that or more with some regularity. In the much ballyhooed Christmas storm, I got a measly 3", while eastern Wake county was near a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some of you guys trip me out man....There was a LOOOOOOOONG period of time when EVERYONE was happy as hell with a 2-4" snow event and or a good CAD event....Now, that we have seen some snows over the last couple of years. Everyone is pissed if they only get 2-4" of snow or some sleet or some freezing rain with a CAD event. Sounds like some people are getting greedy and forgetting they live in the SE US!!!!! Chill out and just sit back and enjoy what you may get. I'm still tickled to death, as most upstate SC folks are. We haven't had a 6" snowfall since 89 here in mby so this most likely will be the biggest snow here in 22 years. I hate it for the NC folks (the ones that aren't getting a major event) but it aint over yet, i wouldn't throw in the towel yet. My expectations aren't near as high as a lot of folks on here, for me to say i had 2 snows over 3" in 1 winter is an awesome winter. btw...i still like your forecast map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I struggle to get 2-4" while areas around me get that or more with some regularity. In the much ballyhooed Christmas storm, I got a measly 3", while eastern Wake county was near a foot. I really don't believe that 3" was all you got. Obviously, the gods are out to get you and only you, as I live three miles away from you and have no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My thoughts on the impeding Winter Storm... its a long discussion so be warned! http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local_jan.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS 18z ensembles. A little more precip in north GA than the op but the precip in NC looks about the same to me at a quick glance. it does look pretty close. and i still love seeing that finger of a little heavier precip in n ga...i hope it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My thoughts on the impeding Winter Storm... its a long discussion so be warned! http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html Good write up there Phil, as usual. As far as the maps go, you've been spot on this year and I hope that continues! You need the RED TAG!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My thoughts on the impeding Winter Storm... its a long discussion so be warned! http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html Beautifully done and very reasonable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dont know if this has been posted but seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well I'd have to say yes I am disappointed in a 2-4 inch system. Charlotte hasn't gotten more than 3 inches in 8 years. We're due. This had so much potential but the trends just are not there. I know we're saying we could get more, but from what I see the overall trend is for less snow and more ice. Yes I'm disappointed. Thought it would be the classic snowstorm from the 80s, but now it looks like more of the same; January 2010 with 3 inches with ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My thoughts on the impeding Winter Storm... its a long discussion so be warned! http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html Well, I respectfully disagree with you on your snow totals for the WNC mountains (and your ice totals may be a bit high, too). Both the NAM and GFS have at least 0.50" of liquid equivalent before we turn over to light freezing rain/freezing drizzle. With such cold columns, I think a snow ratio of 15:1, trending towards 8:1 or so by Tuesday morning is not out of the question. And then, most of the precipitation has moved east of us, so there should be minimal freezing rain problems. That being said, I think an easy 5" is in store for Asheville, with possibly more if we can hold onto the snow for longer late Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I live in Brier Creek (right beside of RDU) and I'm going to challenge you on this one. You guys out did us in both the December 18-19th, 2009 (2-3" vs. a slushy .1") and January 29-30, 2010 (7 or 8" vs. 5.4") storms. No need for all of the negativity, we have all experienced times when we got the shaft, that's just winter weather in the southeast as others have said. December 19, 2009: also had a slushy quarter inch. So yes, slightly more, but we did NOT get 2-3". According to here, we got the same as parts of North Raleigh: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ January 29-30, 2010: yes, we got closer to 5-6" (I measured 4.5", but there was some compaction). I'm sure NW of town got closer to 7 or 8". If you follow the 6" line on the NWS map it cuts through northern Wake county and southern Orange county alike: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ So last year, at best, we didn't do significantly better than Raleigh. Other events that year saw Chapel Hill receive .5" to as much as 2" less than RDU and south and east. This year has been the same. Nickle and dime, nickle and dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I live in Brier Creek (right beside of RDU) and I'm going to challenge you on this one. You guys out did us in both the December 18-19th, 2009 (2-3" vs. a slushy .1") and January 29-30, 2010 (7 or 8" vs. 5.4") storms. No need for all of the negativity, we have all experienced times when we got the shaft, that's just winter weather in the southeast as others have said. What is the seasonal average in Chapel hill? I think its about 7.5 in RDU-- maybe add a half inch and make it 8 in Chapel Hill-- He's got to have at least 5 this winter. That's not bad-- and it should be an inch added to it by Tuesday. He complained in the winter of 01-02 the BESIDES the 13 inch event, the winter sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So I don't do too much looking back at old runs, and from what I have been reading you guys are saying the system my move slower, which in turn would allow 850's to become a problem. I've noticed this thing was supposed to come in to CAE originally around 9pm, then it has been 12am, and currently looks to be around 5am Monday morning. That would greatly effect our snowfall accumulation and allow more freezing rain to make it's way in quicker I would assume since daylight would heat the atmosphere although I thought the main factor switching us over was going to be that warm nose? If it's all the warm nose causing this and we were going to stay cold at 850 without it, why is the switchover occurring earlier? Is this warm nose just basic daylight heating, or is it associated with the weakening gulf storm? Looks like it's starting off quicker then progged. Check out south TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 To Rocky Mount? To ten other locations that have half my yearly normal, but always seem to get twice as much as here? Or to FL where there are never problems with accumulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Radars in TX are about to explode over the next 5 hours, should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've never seen so many people who basically live in the mountains or have a yearly snowfall average 10x greater than others get so upset. You guys really might want to consider moving out of the Southeast and up to Wisconsin or North Dakota if you're getting "emo" over 2-4" inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've never seen so many people who basically live in the mountains or have a yearly snowfall average 10x greater than others get so upset. You guys really might want to consider moving out of the Southeast and up to Wisconsin or North Dakota if you're getting "emo" over 2-4" inches of snow. Agreed. I will be more than happy with 2-4". 18Z guidance is pointing toward a 3-5, maybe 4-6" event for the metro ATL so FFC looks to be en pointe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Radars in TX are about to explode over the next 5 hours, should be fun to watch. At the rate this is going, the over-performance is looking more and more likely with our precipitation. Here's to a wild ride of radar trending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 +1 I hope anyway, sitting west of you up 74 At the rate this is going, the over-performance is looking more and more likely with our precipitation. Here's to a wild ride of radar trending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Probably the last image before dark of the visible loop. The clouds have really filled in quickly. http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/sc_visible_loop.php Rain is starting to pickup, especially just south of Texas outside the range of the radar, just coming in range http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_texas_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, I respectfully disagree with you on your snow totals for the WNC mountains (and your ice totals may be a bit high, too). Both the NAM and GFS have at least 0.50" of liquid equivalent before we turn over to light freezing rain/freezing drizzle. With such cold columns, I think a snow ratio of 15:1, trending towards 8:1 or so by Tuesday morning is not out of the question. And then, most of the precipitation has moved east of us, so there should be minimal freezing rain problems. That being said, I think an easy 5" is in store for Asheville, with possibly more if we can hold onto the snow for longer late Monday into Tuesday. Hmm I just analyzed the 18z Gfs BUFKIT and it seems like you might have the right idea. I really thought we lost the dendrite growth region earlier... but the gfs doesn't show this happening until around 1pm. By that point .412" of precip has fallen, and considering we will likely be dealing with greater than 10:1 ratios... 5" certainly seems possible. Again this was just a first call and I plan on updating things tomorrow. I still feel a bit uneasy about Gulf Coast convection perhaps ruining a good moisture flow, and perhaps the dry wedge being more effective than currently progged at eating away our moisture. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Stormsfury, TD/temp. gradients are going to be very tight in the CHS/SAV area as one might expect when there is wedging and the marine layer involved. To illustrate, here are some 12Z 1/8 NAM TD projections as of 7 PM tomorrow night: CHS: 9 SAV: 8 SSI: 32 Due to the N/S shape of the coast at SSI, one can already see how little effect the wedging has there with its much higher TD. An obvious key for CHS/SAV, due to the NE-SW shape of the coast , will be whether or not sfc winds are mainly from a 45 degree or lower angle...NE to NNE, which would largely avoid a direct oceanic trajectory (ocean ~50+). Here are the 12z 1/8 NAM projected wind vectors every three hours from 7 PM Sun through 10 AM Mon.: CHS: 13, 35, 29, 49, 36, 30 SAV: 47, 47, 60, 62, 57, 38 At the end of that period, CHS TD rises to 30/26 and SAV 34/31. So, one can see some warming impact of the higher wind angle projected for SAV vs. CHS. More dramatically, SSI rises to a whopping 56/55. So, one can see how much more the marine layer comes into play at SSI vs. SAV here. I can't really find any past winter storm weather maps that are very similar with regard to this storm's wedging element. Here is how 1/7/1988 at 1 PM looked, near the start of the precip., when there was a more classic parent high over NY: In contrast, here is the projected map for the upcoming system (although low is similar and there is good wedging, there is no parent high near NY): 1/7/1988 ZR storm effects: 1) The 1/7/1988 storm resulted in a mix at CHS, including a pretty decent sized ZR if I'm not mistaken. The high/low were 33/27 with 0.34" liquid. 2) It produced the last sig. ZR at SAV with high/low of 37/29 and 0.40" liquid and ~0.25" of ice. SAV was down to 30 F from 2PM to 10PM with ZR and thousands lost power (although roads were mostly ok). 3) Metter/Statesboro and into inland SC had severe icing with 1"+ of ZR! (So this was the last major ZR in that part of GA/SC). 4) In contrast, Brunswick, GA, had a much warmer 47/33 and no ZR, due to the marine layer. 5)- 850's as of 1 PM 1/7/88, during the early stages of the precip., were as follows: CHS: +5 C; SAV: +7.5C; SSI: +8.5 C...the 0C line was way up near the SC/NC border. - In contrast, the 12z NAM forecast for 7 AM Mon., during the early stages of the precip., are as follows: CHS: -1 C; SAV: +2 C, SSI: +4 C -So, 850's are projected to be ~5C colder than near the start in 1988. - On 1/7/88 at 7 PM (six hours later), 850's warmed only slowly to +7/+8/+9 at CHS/SAV/SSI (only a 0.5 to 2 C warming). - They are projected this time to warm to the following 6 hours later (1 PM Mon): +2/+5/+7.5..so ~ 3C warming. However, even then, when a decent chunk of the precip. has already fallen, 850's are still 2.5 to 3 C colder at CHS/SAV vs. where they were in the early stages of the 1/7/1988 event! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusion/final comments for CHS/SAV for this storm: 1) The exact sfc wind vectors will be very crucial. If the NAM is overestimating the angle, the temp.'s will likely be colder than what is being projected. That would mean a risk for more ZR, especially, being that TD's are expected tt be in the single numbers on Sun. and that there is expected to be pretty strong wedging. 2) I have no feel for how the upcoming wedge setup compares to the 1988 setup as far as staying power vs. the marine layer is concerned. 3) 850's will be colder than in 1988. I'm not sure what that would mean here. That may actually mean that the wedge is weaker this time since the rise in temp.'s from the ground to the 850 mb level would be smaller this time assuming the surface temp. progs aren't grossly overdone...i.e., assuming they don't end up plunging to the mid 20's or so. If so, maybe this is indicative of a wedge that won't be able to hold off the marine layer as well as in 1988? OTOH, maybe this means that projected sfc temp.'s are too warm? However, I doubt they'd plunge to the mid 20's. 4) I'm assuming that offshore/coastal SST's are quite a bit colder this time vs.1/1988 because it has been so much colder over the last 1.5 months vs. it being much warmer in 12/87. Perhaps that would, itself, mean a cooler marine layer vs. 1988?? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd love to hear stormsfury's opinion (or anyone else knowledgeable from the area) on all of this. Larry, I am soooooooooooo glad you found this. I remember that storm extremely well, and fortunately I was severely colder than KCHS during the event which resulted in a good 1-2" of sleet followed by freezing rain later in the evening. What was very fortunate for me with temperatures at 30-31 degrees was the ZR fell so heavily that most of it wasn't able to accrete on the trees and there was plenty of runoff due to latent heat releasing. I was researching the Jan 1988 850mb temperatures and this upcoming event is much colder aloft. SST's here aren't very warm given the very cold December and I think with the dampening low that the warming aloft may be overdone. I also noted that the parent high cell on the wedging is not moving out to sea either, but actually retrograding back a little to the west from E NC back to over to E TN as the low is swinging up. My concerns are that the wedging is being underplayed by guidance and the SFC temperatures remain below freezing longer than expected. Even with the January 1988 event where the 850mb's warmed to +8 over KCHS, low clouds/drizzle kept surface temperatures the next day around 32 to 34 all day. Most of the time with the wedging configurations, usually the winds run NNE here and that locks out the marine influence at the SFC and makes it extremely difficult for cold air to scour and with a dampening low pressure at the SFC and no real well defined 850mb low, the aggression of 850mb warming might be grossly overestimated, especially with potentials for convective/stronger frontogenesis and moderate to heavy rates would tend to cool the column or counteract/offset the warming to a degree. We're definitely going to be colder to start at all levels on this one. In fact so, I'm confident that the region around here starts off as sleet/snow or all snow and probably lasting several hours. what kind of rates that are falling will likely dictate accumulations and column cooling as least incipiently. In fact, the precipitation rates during the morning and early afternoon could easily dictate ZR/IP vs more IP/SN or even SN of the rates are heavy enough and also if there's convective elements to the moisture, so it's safe to say it's going to be almost impossible to pinpoint exact precip types because it could go through wild swings just based on precip rates at least until warmer aloft does protrude and by that time, most of the precipitation may be already out of the area. I'm going to speculate that up to 2" of snow could fall, but mostly from a coating to 1"-1.5" is my thinking across this region, with sleet and ZR thrown in, possibly (hopefully) staying under <.25" of accretions. I'm also betting that the SFC low isn't as close to the coast given the thermal structures of the SST's right now. One of the coldest Decembers on record has wreaked havoc on near shore SST's and I think the low is going to follow the least path of resistance a little further offshore than being shown. SLP's cannot cut through wedges unless they are developing rather strongly, and this SLP is actually dampening out as it traverses thru. this isn't a solid Miller A situation, not quite a MIller B either, so a hybrid IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looking at the 22z RUC at 14 hours and comparing it to 18z NAM at 18 hours, the RUC depicts both a weaker surface low and a weaker 850 low. The s/w looks -- maybe -- a touch stronger, but you would think that would translate either up or down in the atmosphere. Maybe somebody can show me how the RUC should be making me more optimistic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From the graphs of temperatures at different heights, it appears the transition to sleet will occur between the following hours for the following locations: (times are subject to vary) CLT- 14-18 EST Monday AVL- 19-23 EST Monday ATL- 5-7 EST Monday CAE- 8:30-12 EST Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 to my untrained eye, north al and north ga look real good. 18z gfs ensembles have a nice finger of .75, Nam has 1.0 in places. The op gfs 18z has .50. M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RGEM shows all snow for GSP to CLT in both the 12z and 18z runs. Hopes it's right, but I have found the GFS to do really well with temps in this area the past 2 winters, which suggests a definite changeover to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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