DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 998 right below TexaS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Downgraded: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like they are going with more icing potential vs snow. Look at the second map I posted. Yeah, I saw that, but I'm just not sure I agree with it. All of the models show significant Snow in ATL Metro BEFORE the warm nose reaches the area. I'd be surprised if there is not 5-7" of Snow followed by Sleet, ending as light freezing rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z GFS just initialized as such: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @18 looks like a little more precip on the NW side of the precip shield....that low might be a hair weaker but otherwise looks pretty much the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @24 precip is further north but looks to be in line with the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I believe the NE vortex is also moving out faster and weakening compared with 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Downgraded: eh, i wouldnt worry at this point. you can see the color changes around almost random. picking out the heaviest lollipop areas is next to impossible. i see this as a monster storm, 4"+ for many of us, and nowcast and radars will show where the heaviest bands end up setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @30 precip is further north and looks like a little more than the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Asheville forecasted precip amounts http://www.meteor.ia...phtml?site=kpdk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @33 it's looking better then 12z but it's getting into the time frame where things start to dampen so lets see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good to see the RUC is likely going to take NAM and GFS as well as Euro out once again. Already coming in stronger through 18 hours, closed off again. The southern stream has been overperforming in this Winter with the ULL's this season. Here's my full Southeast discussion,as I see this so far. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @36 it's starting to dampen more moisture on the NW side but not as much on the NE side....over all pretty close to 12z at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @42 looks better then the 12z large swath of .50 from ATL to GSP it doesn't have that narrow little strip. Lets see if it can lift it to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good to see the RUC is likely going to take NAM and GFS as well as Euro out once again. Already coming in stronger through 18 hours, closed off again. The southern stream has been overperforming in this Winter with the ULL's this season. Here's my full Southeast discussion,as I see this so far. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com I will say that the RUC has spanked the euro, gfs and nam on my last 2 snowstorms. The ruc had quickly found midlevel circs that have provided some heavy snows out here. Its trying to do it again for me. The point is that I agree with robert, and yall need to watch the ruc very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 North GA gets plastered yet again this run, the one worry might be those 850's in ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @48 all the heavier precip is staying in SC. For NC it looks like this is going to be a drier run than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This may still be good QPF for NC, but the timing is all wrong could be more ice this go round, I'll let a met chime in on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My days of griping about NWS or NHC or whatever have long passed or so I thought... Really, Morristown?????? OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH GULF COAST SYSTEM...SO JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO GRIDS. I DID SPREAD THE WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF E TN...WITH A LATER START AND END TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS IN GRIDS AND WSW SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOS TEMPS AND POPS WERE CLOSE FOR ALL 4 PERIODS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED. They spent more lines on whether or not a Wind Chill Advosory would be necessary on the mountain tops tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like @63 the low is good enough to throw moisture back into ENC, but with the 850's warmed it would be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Models keep warming up the 850s earlier and earlier. Still getting more than .5 inches of liquid in Shelby, but it's close to 50/50 snow/sleet or ice when it was 80/20 snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have a feeling folks are not going to like the 18z GFS snow maps at all, on SV it has nothing for ATL and just a wide 2-4 across GSP to east of CLT and up to GSO...which is not bad at all but considering the expectations. Anyways it's the usual not gonna know until it gets here. 00z will probably be completely opposite and way wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS looks like it took a step towards the NAM in regards to precip in North GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Models keep warming up the 850s earlier and earlier. Still getting more than .5 inches of liquid in Shelby, but it's close to 50/50 snow/sleet or ice when it was 80/20 snow yesterday. Yea I think the problem is that the storm keeps getting delayed and delayed, we are having the worst timing issues with storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No one should panic, it's just runs and if it is miscalculating the low or vort energy then you might as well throw the run in the garbage. We are still in good shape. I'll worry about qpf Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have no worries. We're right on track, things are falling in line. I didn't think this was a good run to look at anyway? Didn't it do something similar last night on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have a feeling folks are not going to like the 18z GFS snow maps at all, on SV it has nothing for ATL and just a wide 2-4 across GSP to east of CLT and up to GSO...which is not bad at all but considering the expectations. Anyways it's the usual not gonna know until it gets here. 00z will probably be completely opposite and way wetter. Then it would be major ice for North GA. That wedge isnt going anywhere. I could do without ice, but I would take it over rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have a feeling folks are not going to like the 18z GFS snow maps at all, on SV it has nothing for ATL and just a wide 2-4 across GSP to east of CLT and up to GSO...which is not bad at all but considering the expectations. Anyways it's the usual not gonna know until it gets here. 00z will probably be completely opposite and way wetter. The sad thing is ever since Monday JB has said models way off with the huge amounts. He said mainly1-3 in Atlanta maybe up to 3 inches in my area. i was laughing thinking he was so wrong and now looks like he may have pulled one out of his hat. I am still worried about the dry air. It never fails when we have something decent the air dries it all up. We have had so many Virga blizzards over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have no worries. We're right on track, things are falling in line. I didn't think this was a good run to look at anyway? Didn't it do something similar last night on this run? This run is better than 12z IMO for north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good to see the RUC is likely going to take NAM and GFS as well as Euro out once again. Already coming in stronger through 18 hours, closed off again. The southern stream has been overperforming in this Winter with the ULL's this season. Here's my full Southeast discussion,as I see this so far. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Good discussion, question at what point in N Ms does your over 6 category start as an estimate or is it a broad depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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