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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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Looks like they are going with more icing potential vs snow. Look at the second map I posted.

Yeah, I saw that, but I'm just not sure I agree with it. All of the models show significant Snow in ATL Metro BEFORE the warm nose reaches the area. I'd be surprised if there is not 5-7" of Snow followed by Sleet, ending as light freezing rain/drizzle.

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:thumbsdown: Downgraded:

eh, i wouldnt worry at this point. you can see the color changes around almost random. picking out the heaviest lollipop areas is next to impossible. i see this as a monster storm, 4"+ for many of us, and nowcast and radars will show where the heaviest bands end up setting up

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Good to see the RUC is likely going to take NAM and GFS as well as Euro out once again. Already coming in stronger through 18 hours, closed off again. The southern stream has been overperforming in this Winter with the ULL's this season.

Here's my full Southeast discussion,as I see this so far.

http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com

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Good to see the RUC is likely going to take NAM and GFS as well as Euro out once again. Already coming in stronger through 18 hours, closed off again. The southern stream has been overperforming in this Winter with the ULL's this season.

Here's my full Southeast discussion,as I see this so far.

http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com

I will say that the RUC has spanked the euro, gfs and nam on my last 2 snowstorms. The ruc had quickly found midlevel circs that have provided some heavy snows out here. Its trying to do it again for me. The point is that I agree with robert, and yall need to watch the ruc very closely.

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My days of griping about NWS or NHC or whatever have long passed or so I thought...

Really, Morristown??????

OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH GULF COAST SYSTEM

...SO JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO GRIDS. I DID SPREAD THE

WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF E TN...WITH A LATER START AND END

TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS IN GRIDS AND WSW SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOS TEMPS AND POPS WERE CLOSE FOR ALL 4 PERIODS AND CLOSELY

FOLLOWED.

They spent more lines on whether or not a Wind Chill Advosory would be necessary on the mountain tops tonight...:axe:

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I have a feeling folks are not going to like the 18z GFS snow maps at all, on SV it has nothing for ATL and just a wide 2-4 across GSP to east of CLT and up to GSO...which is not bad at all but considering the expectations. Anyways it's the usual not gonna know until it gets here. 00z will probably be completely opposite and way wetter.

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Models keep warming up the 850s earlier and earlier. Still getting more than .5 inches of liquid in Shelby, but it's close to 50/50 snow/sleet or ice when it was 80/20 snow yesterday.

Yea I think the problem is that the storm keeps getting delayed and delayed, we are having the worst timing issues with storms lately.

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I have a feeling folks are not going to like the 18z GFS snow maps at all, on SV it has nothing for ATL and just a wide 2-4 across GSP to east of CLT and up to GSO...which is not bad at all but considering the expectations. Anyways it's the usual not gonna know until it gets here. 00z will probably be completely opposite and way wetter.

Then it would be major ice for North GA. That wedge isnt going anywhere. I could do without ice, but I would take it over rain.

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I have a feeling folks are not going to like the 18z GFS snow maps at all, on SV it has nothing for ATL and just a wide 2-4 across GSP to east of CLT and up to GSO...which is not bad at all but considering the expectations. Anyways it's the usual not gonna know until it gets here. 00z will probably be completely opposite and way wetter.

The sad thing is ever since Monday JB has said models way off with the huge amounts. He said mainly1-3 in Atlanta maybe up to 3 inches in my area. i was laughing thinking he was so wrong and now looks like he may have pulled one out of his hat.

I am still worried about the dry air. It never fails when we have something decent the air dries it all up. We have had so many Virga blizzards over the years.

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Good to see the RUC is likely going to take NAM and GFS as well as Euro out once again. Already coming in stronger through 18 hours, closed off again. The southern stream has been overperforming in this Winter with the ULL's this season.

Here's my full Southeast discussion,as I see this so far.

http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com

Good discussion, question at what point in N Ms does your over 6 category start as an estimate or is it a broad depiction?
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