audioguy3107 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The WSI RPM....love this look!!! http://waff.typepad....e1627124970b-pi That'a a nice look, couldn't do much better than that for most of us here in north Georgia. What's the accuracy of that graphic in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NEGa--I read that earlier in the thread somewhere. A poster mentioned that it would probably be the 0z runs tonight before a really good specific idea on what was actually going to happen would be known. In any event you guys are pretty golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NEGa--I read that earlier in the thread somewhere. A poster mentioned that it would probably be the 0z runs tonight before a really good specific idea on what was actually going to happen would be known. In any event you guys are pretty golden. i am actually a little nervous again, now lol. the set up is great and high confidence etc. however, now the REAL fun begins. seeing where the storm is and its track and projected heaviest qpf as we get within 24 hours of the event and the models nail it down better. people can make snide comments on this next part, but i am really going to be paying close attention to the RUC starting mid day tomorrow. i am hoping the RUC shows what has happened before in storms, once the heaviest precip moves out, we are left with very light snow, flurries or freezing drizzle for many hours after the main event. the RUC picks it up well in n central ne ga and into the upstate (i cant really speak for its performance in other places) then we can compare what the short range models are showing against the radar and nowcasting and figure out whats going to happen in our own back yards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you can add me in the southern foothills of WNC to the "I like that look any one in ne al, all of n ga, the upstate and sw nc should be loving that look. i dont know why so many discount the RPM, iirc it hasnt done all too badly lately with our winter events. that image adds to my confidence, i have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Raleigh doesn't seem to see any mixing for the Triad. Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Does a slower Low mean more cold air to come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 9am WSI-RPM has 10-12" in NE Bama and NW GA WAFF-WSI RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey Cheez or Dawson, when do you expect FFC to upgade to a Winter Storm Warning? Thanks guys! This afternoon (around 4 or so) or early evening if they follow past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i am actually a little nervous again, now lol. the set up is great and high confidence etc. however, now the REAL fun begins. seeing where the storm is and its track and projected heaviest qpf as we get within 24 hours of the event and the models nail it down better. people can make snide comments on this next part, but i am really going to be paying close attention to the RUC starting mid day tomorrow. i am hoping the RUC shows what has happened before in storms, once the heaviest precip moves out, we are left with very light snow, flurries or freezing drizzle for many hours after the main event. the RUC picks it up well in n central ne ga and into the upstate (i cant really speak for its performance in other places) then we can compare what the short range models are showing against the radar and nowcasting and figure out whats going to happen in our own back yards I call that pre-storm jitters. I think all of us true weenies get this at some point before storm hits. I'm just telling myself as long as we get 4 inches i'll be happy. Anything else is just bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Okay, I have a question...we're getting most of our moisture from the ULL right? If we are, isn't there a dry slot in there and couldn't that affect us negatively by not having moisture in there...don't mean to sound stupid, but just wondering. Thanks for explaining if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 9am WSI-RPM has 10-12" in NE Bama and NW GA WAFF-WSI RPM Cedric, How has this model performed for you guys? Looks good! Thanks! Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18nam so far @6 looks about the same with the SW. The NE looks a look weaker (Compared to the 12Z NAM runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Okay, I have a question...we're getting most of our moisture from the ULL right? If we are, isn't there a dry slot in there and couldn't that affect us negatively by not having moisture in there...don't mean to sound stupid, but just wondering. Thanks for explaining if I'm wrong. There could be a dry slot but based on the past model runs, it appeared it was coming in as the moisture was ending anyway, not sure how that currently is playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Cedric, How has this model performed for you guys? Looks good! Thanks! Kevin This ones from Brad Travis, Chief Met over a WAFF (NBC) in Huntsville. We dont run this model here. Most stations with WSI have access to this and run this as there on-air model. Apparently it did well with the Ice event back in December and Snowstorm around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM is going to be further north. The new england vortex is rocketing out a lot faster on this run. And the trough looks more intact in texas at 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here's a visible loop from Texas, you can see the clouds gathering already http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/sc_visible_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM is going to be further north. The new england vortex is rocketing out a lot faster on this run. And the trough looks more intact in texas at 24hrs. You're right. That vortex seriously hauls out of the U.S. About time that it did and this should have good implications on our low if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 By 42, our moisture really gets shunted northward and there's indication that one lucky area in north GA sees around .60 qpf haha. Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 north GA is getting nailed at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes, into swNC and the the upstate right up to the nc state line at 42 By 42, our moisture really gets shunted northward and there's indication that one lucky person in north GA sees around .60 qpf haha. Looking good so far. Also, the slp is a little stronger at 45.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 We are so good here, next image will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well at 48 looks like that heavier moisture stays south of us here in NC all the sudden. Kind of like how the 0z NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Retreats the 850 line also South. But yes. Also like the 12Z nam with the heavy returns south of NC at this hour... Well at 48 looks like that heavier moisture stays south of us here in NC all the sudden. Kind of like how the 0z NAM did. Was looking good until then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well at 48 looks like that heavier moisture stays south of us here in NC all the sudden. Kind of like how the 0z NAM did. hard to believe that actually transpires though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hard to believe that actually transpires though Unless it is picking up on how low the dp will be. There is going to be some very dry air in NC that the precip has to overcome so the NAM could be picking up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Memphis just went with a Winter Storm Warning ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CSTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BEYOND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Stormsfury, TD/temp. gradients are going to be very tight in the CHS/SAV area as one might expect when there is wedging and the marine layer involved. To illustrate, here are some 12Z 1/8 NAM TD projections as of 7 PM tomorrow night: CHS: 9 SAV: 8 SSI: 32 Due to the N/S shape of the coast at SSI, one can already see how little effect the wedging has there with its much higher TD. An obvious key for CHS/SAV, due to the NE-SW shape of the coast , will be whether or not sfc winds are mainly from a 45 degree or lower angle...NE to NNE, which would largely avoid a direct oceanic trajectory (ocean ~50+). Here are the 12z 1/8 NAM projected wind vectors every three hours from 7 PM Sun through 10 AM Mon.: CHS: 13, 35, 29, 49, 36, 30 SAV: 47, 47, 60, 62, 57, 38 At the end of that period, CHS TD rises to 30/26 and SAV 34/31. So, one can see some warming impact of the higher wind angle projected for SAV vs. CHS. More dramatically, SSI rises to a whopping 56/55. So, one can see how much more the marine layer comes into play at SSI vs. SAV here. I can't really find any past winter storm weather maps that are very similar with regard to this storm's wedging element. Here is how 1/7/1988 at 1 PM looked, near the start of the precip., when there was a more classic parent high over NY: In contrast, here is the projected map for the upcoming system (although low is similar and there is good wedging, there is no parent high near NY): 1/7/1988 ZR storm effects: 1) The 1/7/1988 storm resulted in a mix at CHS, including a pretty decent sized ZR if I'm not mistaken. The high/low were 33/27 with 0.34" liquid. 2) It produced the last sig. ZR at SAV with high/low of 37/29 and 0.40" liquid and ~0.25" of ice. SAV was down to 30 F from 2PM to 10PM with ZR and thousands lost power (although roads were mostly ok). 3) Metter/Statesboro and into inland SC had severe icing with 1"+ of ZR! (So this was the last major ZR in that part of GA/SC). 4) In contrast, Brunswick, GA, had a much warmer 47/33 and no ZR, due to the marine layer. 5)- 850's as of 1 PM 1/7/88, during the early stages of the precip., were as follows: CHS: +5 C; SAV: +7.5C; SSI: +8.5 C...the 0C line was way up near the SC/NC border. - In contrast, the 12z NAM forecast for 7 AM Mon., during the early stages of the precip., are as follows: CHS: -1 C; SAV: +2 C, SSI: +4 C -So, 850's are projected to be ~5C colder than near the start in 1988. - On 1/7/88 at 7 PM (six hours later), 850's warmed only slowly to +7/+8/+9 at CHS/SAV/SSI (only a 0.5 to 2 C warming). - They are projected this time to warm to the following 6 hours later (1 PM Mon): +2/+5/+7.5..so ~ 3C warming. However, even then, when a decent chunk of the precip. has already fallen, 850's are still 2.5 to 3 C colder at CHS/SAV vs. where they were in the early stages of the 1/7/1988 event! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusion/final comments for CHS/SAV for this storm: 1) The exact sfc wind vectors will be very crucial. If the NAM is overestimating the angle, the temp.'s will likely be colder than what is being projected. That would mean a risk for more ZR, especially, being that TD's are expected tt be in the single numbers on Sun. and that there is expected to be pretty strong wedging. 2) I have no feel for how the upcoming wedge setup compares to the 1988 setup as far as staying power vs. the marine layer is concerned. 3) 850's will be colder than in 1988. I'm not sure what that would mean here. That may actually mean that the wedge is weaker this time since the rise in temp.'s from the ground to the 850 mb level would be smaller this time assuming the surface temp. progs aren't grossly overdone...i.e., assuming they don't end up plunging to the mid 20's or so. If so, maybe this is indicative of a wedge that won't be able to hold off the marine layer as well as in 1988? OTOH, maybe this means that projected sfc temp.'s are too warm? However, I doubt they'd plunge to the mid 20's. 4) I'm assuming that offshore/coastal SST's are quite a bit colder this time vs.1/1988 because it has been so much colder over the last 1.5 months vs. it being much warmer in 12/87. Perhaps that would, itself, mean a cooler marine layer vs. 1988?? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd love to hear stormsfury's opinion (or anyone else knowledgeable from the area) on all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Isn't the NAM being much slower with this system than the GFS and other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The qpf on the NAM doesn't match the omega and 700rh map at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hard to believe that actually transpires though When something appears on a model that seems to defy logic you look for multiple causes. In this case we have a weakening SW moving south of NC while NC is covered by a very dry air mass. That combination can make it appear as if the precip just vanishes from one panel to the next. Less moist air riding north over a very dry surface and poof, the amazing disappearing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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