Mr Bob Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree with you Carver....you upset their snow cart and you're not in old south dixie(north of I-40)...forget this forum Oh Lord...please get over yourselves...Carver is a solid poster but in a high volume storm mode situation moderators can't be expected to come wipe your face and wash your car for you. Making a public display only makes it worse when the crap is hitting the fan. I have been doing these forums for almost 8 years from TN and have found that if you want to get bent out of shape over perceived regionalism, you can...but you probably should not be posting on any weather forum unless there is a TRI-cities one if you crave attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 sweet - is there a link for this model (or is it a pay site?) i would like to see the next couple of frames to see which way the precip is moving. (i do not mean a link to the other forum, but a link to where that image is) so far, even as we approach the event, the models seem to be holding their ground for the most part (a few shifts are obviously likely, but the consistency is still there) WRF model I use this link a lot. generally shows precip north of GFS, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WRF 42 hour radar simulation... (from another forum) Dixie, it is interesting. FFC mentioned it yesterday in their disco. No doubt that a line of storms like that will rob moisture. Cheeze, I appreciate you "keeping it real". I am curious though regarding the Christmas storm, how the EURO did in regards to qpf inside of 48 hours. I hope you get some south of the atl. You deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WRF model I use this link a lot. generally shows precip north of GFS, NAM. Thanks for the link, man. Nice little site! Through hr 72, it has: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If anyone is unhappy with the moderation in this subforum, you're free to take your "analysis" elsewhere. We need to keep the discussion free from regionalism, IMBY posts, rants over getting 'screwed', and other non-productive junk. Mr. Bob put it perfectly a few posts up. I'm here to help the SE moderators maintain some decorum as there is a possibly historic weather situation playing out in the coming days. If you want to continue to be able to participate, please make sure you contribute to the discussion instead of detract from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That convection depicted in the Gulf...concerning or no? Looks concerning to me. I know there is a wright up about convection and the line it takes as to how it either robs or enhances upstream moisture...so it's hard to tell from there but after the burn last year I'm always worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dixie, it is interesting. FFC mentioned it yesterday in their disco. No doubt that a line of storms like that will rob moisture. Cheeze, I appreciate you "keeping it real". I am curious though regarding the Christmas storm, how the EURO did in regards to qpf inside of 48 hours. I hope you get some south of the atl. You deserve it. at this close to the event, this is probably the only thing i could think of that really could throw a wrench into totals. its always a risk with a strong gulf low and its really hard to tell if the models are accurate or if its feedback. many times the feedback claim is made, but convection does rob us of moisture. hopefully the models have a handle on it, and if the storms form, it will be far enough east that the dimished moisture effects wouldnt affect n ga, the upstate as much as if the convection started in the west or middle of the gulf. it all depends where/when convection develops and how the precip shield is ultimately moving WRF model I use this link a lot. generally shows precip north of GFS, NAM. thank you! If anyone is unhappy with the moderation in this subforum, you're free to take your "analysis" elsewhere. We need to keep the discussion free from regionalism, IMBY posts, rants over getting 'screwed', and other non-productive junk. Mr. Bob put it perfectly a few posts up. I'm here to help the SE moderators maintain some decorum as there is a possibly historic weather situation playing out in the coming days. If you want to continue to be able to participate, please make sure you contribute to the discussion instead of detract from it. i agree. i made a post in the other thread, there have been quite a few posts needing sorting through and lookout cant handle them all himself. Hey Cheez or Dawson, when do you expect FFC to upgade to a Winter Storm Warning? Thanks guys! i am not one of them, but i think its a pretty safe bet that most of us will be under a wsw for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh Lord...please get over yourselves...Carver is a solid poster but in a high volume storm mode situation moderators can't be expected to come wipe your face and wash your car for you. Making a public display only makes it worse when the crap is hitting the fan. I have been doing these forums for almost 8 years from TN and have found that if you want to get bent out of shape over perceived regionalism, you can...but you probably should not be posting on any weather forum unless there is a TRI-cities one if you crave attention. This is the last I'll say. One, Mr. Bob, I actually enjoy your posts. I understand many on the board who participate actually are from GA and NC. It makes sense they would post about their areas. What I didn't appreciate, is having one of my posts deleted. It's easy to sit behind a computer and make grandiose statements like what was highlighted. I've made the mistake myself - like two days ago. However, true or not, when folks from this area ask for help such as qpf amounts, pattern questions, or the like (in a general manner as the board requests)...many times they go unanswered or are criticized as IMBY questions. The KTRI area is 250,000 people strong. It is not a backyard. Deleting a post is a serious offense if posters are following the rules. It is censorship. As for a public display, it's the internet - it's all a public display. Warning bar activate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks concerning to me. I know there is a wright up about convection and the line it takes as to how it either robs or enhances upstream moisture...so it's hard to tell from there but after the burn last year I'm always worried. I've been watching that line for a while.. and it's leading me to possibly think that's what the models could be picking up on. Some of the runs are really messing up AL, MS, and GA's QPF. Mix that is with the system going super weak as it enters the GA/SC/NC area.. it could make some sense. I saw FL has thunderstorms in their forecast already. The WRF makes it look really bad though, like all those gaps in moisture as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 WRF 42 hour radar simulation... (from another forum) Interesting if you go to the WRF site and loop the model, you'll see that the main precip shield is shunted well up into Tennessee while most of GA and SC is left with a somewhat narrow band of precip. Hope that's not the case as most model guidance have that main band much further south, but I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is the last I'll say. One, Mr. Bob, I actually enjoy your posts. I understand many on the board who participate actually are from GA and NC. It makes sense they would post about their areas. What I didn't appreciate, is having one of my posts deleted. It's easy to sit behind a computer and make grandiose statements like what was highlighted. I've made the mistake myself - like two days ago. However, true or not, when folks from this area ask for help such as qpf amounts, pattern questions, or the like (in a general manner as the board requests)...many times they go unanswered or are criticized as IMBY questions. The KTRI area is 250,000 people strong. It is not a backyard. Deleting a post is a serious offense if posters are following the rules. It is censorship. As for a public display, it's the internet - it's all a public display. Warning bar activate... What QPF would you like man and from which models & cities in TN? Nobody really ever posts much for TN and I will do that. This seems to be a mainly NC/GA population forum so I feel your pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've been watching that line for a while.. and it's leading me to possibly think that's what the models could be picking up on. Some of the runs are really messing up AL, MS, and GA's QPF. Mix that is with the system going super weak as it enters the GA/SC/NC area.. it could make some sense. I saw FL has thunderstorms in their forecast already. The WRF makes it look really bad though, like all those gaps in moisture as it heads east. Yeah I got a bad feeling about this storm. Something is just not right. I can't put my finger on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Interesting if you go to the WRF site and loop the model, you'll see that the main precip shield is shunted well up into Tennessee while most of GA and SC is left with a somewhat narrow band of precip. Hope that's not the case as most model guidance have that main band much further south, but I guess we shall see. thats why i was trying to see if we could get a link for the next few frames. if the stuff in n ms and n al moves east we are golden. if it shifts north, there could be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The rub is, if the model is overplaying the convective issue, QPF rates could truly be underdone just about everywhere East of west Alabama. Itunis....as a fine line wrt moderation. Some of us cannot be on here like others continuously so when we want to get a quick model analysis, we have to sort through a lot of mind numbing IMBY questions and it takes forever. I had a post deleted but it contributed nothing so I understand. You know as well as I that there some great posters here and you are one of them. Everyone is just a little on edge right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Actually, I don't have a huge problem w/ the track of the low. I disagree w/ the precip shield he has portrayed. The precip (and type) and the low track don't correlate. I can't find any model support either for the low taking a left hand turn - but it's plausible it may. If he puts it on the net, he better be ready to have it critiqued. That's his job, and probably draws more people to his site. And as they say in sports, if you are paying the money to watch the game...then you have a right to criticize. And I do pay Accuweather for their services. So, I can gripe. BTW, I would be in hog heaven if that verified, because I'm in the bullseye of it. It pains me to say it is wrong. Is Henry's stuff on the pay site? I had a problem finding it on the free site and then found it with a google search. When I found it, it was preceding with 5 points regarding his forecast which i thought somewhat expained his reasoning. So I don't see the big deal. Maybe you guys saw it before he posted the 5 points. As for the left turn, don't most all the models show the low with a gradual left bend? I just watched JB's bd and it was pretty good and matched pretty close to HM. I would have to fault JB with not discussing the ice potential down south. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 thats why i was trying to see if we could get a link for the next few frames. if the stuff in n ms and n al moves east we are golden. if it shifts north, there could be an issue Yeah, anyone underneath the west to east oriented band (which most likely WILL be there) I'm sure will do quite well, and maybe even better than model guidance due to convective banding etc etc. The good thing for us in N Alabama and Ga is that to my knowledge, no model has shown the heavier precip banding way up in middle to northern Tennessee. That seems much further north than all guidance so far. Little bit of wishcasting with this of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Interesting if you go to the WRF site and loop the model, you'll see that the main precip shield is shunted well up into Tennessee while most of GA and SC is left with a somewhat narrow band of precip. Hope that's not the case as most model guidance have that main band much further south, but I guess we shall see. Given the direction of the 500mb vort from tex to tn, the slp would favor the southern deep south. You always want to be quite a bit north or west of it or you will be dry slotted. That's probably one reason the SREF has higher qpf focused over tn/nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here is the forecasted low track by the HPC. The low appears to be going at a slower rate of speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is the last I'll say. One, Mr. Bob, I actually enjoy your posts. I understand many on the board who participate actually are from GA and NC. It makes sense they would post about their areas. What I didn't appreciate, is having one of my posts deleted. It's easy to sit behind a computer and make grandiose statements like what was highlighted. I've made the mistake myself - like two days ago. However, true or not, when folks from this area ask for help such as qpf amounts, pattern questions, or the like (in a general manner as the board requests)...many times they go unanswered or are criticized as IMBY questions. The KTRI area is 250,000 people strong. It is not a backyard. Deleting a post is a serious offense if posters are following the rules. It is censorship. As for a public display, it's the internet - it's all a public display. Warning bar activate... Perhaps Yoryz can bump this to the Banter thread because it is worth exploring...as I said, you are solid poster and it would be bad thing for you to depart this board over something like this. I am responsible for the entire TN Valley in my job including TRI-Cities (and frankly would love to live in that area someday) so I know it is not some hamlet in the middle of nowhere...all I am saying is that this is a difficult time for lookout and other mods...it may have been an oversight or it may have been willful but things are crazy right now...trust me, I did it for 4 years at eastern. I got sick of forums because of it. They are only doing this for a love of the whole process but it gets out of control. There is not time to explain actions and it is better overall to just PM in a nice fashion and perhaps it will get resolved. I know I responded to honey and ignored the vinegar when I was involved. And believe me, I made plenty of mistakes.....Just my two cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The HPC low track(s) tells me everything I need to know about central NC. That merge/phasing happens not only too far north, but too far ots. If that 850 would hit the surface low off Charlseton I suspect central NC would be golden. Do I have it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Perhaps Yoryz can bump this to the Banter thread because it is worth exploring...as I said, you are solid poster and it would be bad thing for you to depart this board over something like this. I am responsible for the entire TN Valley in my job including TRI-Cities (and frankly would love to live in that area someday) so I know it is not some hamlet in the middle of nowhere...all I am saying is that this is a difficult time for lookout and other mods...it may have been an oversight or it may have been willful but things are crazy right now...trust me, I did it for 4 years at eastern. I got sick of forums because of it. They are only doing this for a love of the whole process but it gets out of control. There is not time to explain actions and it is better overall to just PM in a nice fashion and perhaps it will get resolved. I know I responded to honey and ignored the vinegar when I was involved. And believe me, I made plenty of mistakes.....Just my two cents... well my reply may also be deleted/moved. i was just pmming with some folks and discussing the same thing. i had not thought of this until it was brought to my attention. some of the non-se mods might not really be able to recognize the good, solid posters from the others and mistakes can be made in haste. i would also not want to lose him over this. its hard to do, esp in a situation like this with so many posts being made so frequently i mean most of us usually end up making some silly post at some point or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Perhaps Yoryz can bump this to the Banter thread because it is worth exploring...as I said, you are solid poster and it would be bad thing for you to depart this board over something like this. I am responsible for the entire TN Valley in my job including TRI-Cities (and frankly would love to live in that area someday) so I know it is not some hamlet in the middle of nowhere...all I am saying is that this is a difficult time for lookout and other mods...it may have been an oversight or it may have been willful but things are crazy right now...trust me, I did it for 4 years at eastern. I got sick of forums because of it. They are only doing this for a love of the whole process but it gets out of control. There is not time to explain actions and it is better overall to just PM in a nice fashion and perhaps it will get resolved. I know I responded to honey and ignored the vinegar when I was involved. And believe me, I made plenty of mistakes.....Just my two cents... Yoryz can move the post to banter. I don't mind since this is a thread for the storm. Thanks for the response as well. I'm definitely not leaving. I have pretty thick skin most of the time. Plus, it's a great board and I like it here. I hear your point - well taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah I got a bad feeling about this storm. Something is just not right. I can't put my finger on it. I feel that we are going to be fine with the precip - moderate amounts, not heavy, not light. My concern is more with the warm air moving in aloft. I'm not buying the all snow look of the Canadian and UKMet from this morning. I think for the Charlotte area, it will end up being 75% snow, then a changeover to ice...more in line with the GFS...and I'm leary that this won't get a little warmer with the upcoming model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The HPC low track(s) tells me everything I need to know about central NC. That merge/phasing happens not only too far north, but too far ots. If that 850 would hit the surface low off Charlseton I suspect central NC would be golden. Do I have it right? I completely agree that the phasing will be too far north. On the HPC graphic though, that low in central NC is today's low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I completely agree that the phasing will be too far north. Maybe this would be of more help. It gives the times. Subtract 5 hours from the time below and that will give you the time in US EST. Link to HPC's website: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ "PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD308 AM EST SAT JAN 08 2011VALID 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 11 2011DAY 1...NORTHEAST...POTENT VORT ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW IS FCST TOEXIT THE MID ATLC AREA TODAY AND SPARK A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYINGOFFSHORE SFC LOW BY TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN MOSTLY SIMILARAND CONSISTENT WITH HVST PRECIP STRETCHING IN AN AXIS FROM SRN NJTO SERN NEW ENG. QFP TOTALS SUGGEST A MODERATE THREAT FOR SOME 4INCH PLUS TOTALS IN THESE AREAS. NRN PLAINS...CLOSED LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PLACE THENRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW. PRECIPSHOULD BE ENHANCED ALONG A SFC BNDRY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREATODAY AND TONIGHT. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE FAVORS A LOWTO MDT THREAT FOR 4 INCH PLUS TOTALS....ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRNDAKOTAS...ERN MT...AND NERN WY.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.DAY 2...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...BROAD UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION AS ANUPPER LOW OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST DIGS SLOWLY SEWD. THIS WILLCOMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TOPRODUCE SOME HVY SNOW ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF CO. LOCALLYHVY SNOW SHOULD FOCUS INTO NEBRASKA/SD ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGHWITH A PERSISTENT WARM ADV PATTERN ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BNDRY. RELIED MOSTLY ON A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN THIS AREA WITH SUPPORT FROMTHE EC MEAN. SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST...SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ON TRACK FOR THE SOUTH AS SRN STREAMSHRTWV SWEEPS EWD FROM TEXAS...WITH BROAD OVERRUNNING PATTERN ANDGULF INFLOW REACHING INTO THE CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT PRECIP TOTRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AS DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS FROMNERN TX TO SRN AR ON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH MODELSUPPORT FOR THE HVST AXIS ACROSS NRN MS/AL/GA AND SRN TN...WHEREAT LEAST A MDT THREAT FOR 4 INCH PLUS AMTS IS INDICATED. CRITICALTEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THETRANSITION AREA ESPECIALLY FROM NRN LA THRU CNTRL AL/GA ANDPOSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SC AS THE SUPPRESSED SFC LOW CENTERREMAINS IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THRU 12Z/MON.DAY 3...CNTRL PLAINS...BATCH OF STRONG VORT ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PULL EASTWARD AND CROSSTHE SRN PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO THE NORTHOF THIS AREA FROM KS TO IA...WITH SNOW FOCUSING ALONG THE LOWLEVEL BNDRY WHICH SLOWLY REACHES EAST ON MON. MODELS ARERELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH SUFFICIENT QPF FOR 4 INCH PLUS TOTALSESPECIALLY OVER ERN KS/NE TO NWRN MO AND WRN IA.SOUTHEAST...OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADS EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AS SFC LOWCROSSES NRN FL AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE SE ATLC COAST ONTUES. RATHER LARGE PRECIP DIFFS ARE NOTED AMONG THE 00Z MODELS. FAVORED THE RELATIVELY DRIER ECMWF WHICH TAKES MORE OF THEMOISTURE MORE QUICKLY OFFSHORE. STILL EXPECT ENOUGH ELY INFLOWFOR SOME SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN OVER CNTRL SC/NC...AND SOME 4INCH PLUS SNOW AMTS FARTHER NW ESPECIALLY THRU THE SRNAPPALACHIANS WHERE FORCING REMAINS STRONG." HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thanks for the clarification grit. I didn't know that part about it being the current NC low. I'm learning... But theULL has to come in somewhere doesn't it? Is it not on the HPC map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BTW, the general rule-of-thumb on zr is .25 of an inch (accrual) is the stress mark for major problems, correct? Once above that things can get really nasty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thanks for the clarification grit. I didn't know that part about it being the current NC low. I'm learning... But theULL has to come in somewhere doesn't it? Is it not on the HPC map? That map is for sfc low tracks. For me, we will get 90% of our precip from the upper low coming out of Texas and tracking into E TN (with sfc low in northern gulf). IMO the vort max for the trailing upper low diving down through the Rockies would need to dive way down toward the LA/AR border in order for us to get any meaningful precip from it...and that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The WSI RPM....love this look!!! http://waff.typepad.com/.a/6a013485d8a80b970c0147e1627124970b-pi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That map is for sfc low tracks. For me, we will get 90% of our precip from the upper low coming out of Texas and tracking into E TN (with sfc low in northern gulf and mid level lows in between). IMO the vort max for the trailing upper low diving down through the Rockies would need to dive way down toward the LA/AR border in order for us to get any meaningful precip from it...and that's not going to happen. yes, i believe our storm is to develop somtime late tonight/early tomorrow morning over the GOM somewhere. once we know where the L actually develops we should start getting a better idea of the track and where what type, and how much precip, should fall The WSI RPM....love this look!!! http://waff.typepad.com/.a/6a013485d8a80b970c0147e1627124970b-pi any one in ne al, all of n ga, the upstate and sw nc should be loving that look. i dont know why so many discount the RPM, iirc it hasnt done all too badly lately with our winter events. that image adds to my confidence, i have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.