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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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I was watching News 14 Carolina (Triad of NC) and the met showed a graphic of the low eventually off the SE coast and another low to the northwest of the mountains in KY?. There was a trough connecting the two and was rotating. I'm interested in any comments on how that would impact precip amounts in the Carolinas. Any thoughts? Thank you.

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Cheez...I am hearing reports on other forums that the low has formed about 75 miles to the south of expected model development...Can you or another met confirm?

This feels like some type of press conference...analysis paralysis too...Try reading a chart for yourself!

Looks like I am in the sweet spot yet again. Amazing blow torch winter we are having!

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I was watching News 14 Carolina (Triad of NC) and the met showed a graphic of the low eventually off the SE coast and another low to the northwest of the mountains in KY?. There was a trough connecting the two and was rotating. I'm interested in any comments on how that would impact precip amounts in the Carolinas. Any thoughts? Thank you.

Read previous posters thoughts and guidance in this thread before asking these type of questions.

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Does 8 pm sound like a good start time for the NW Atlanta burbs? Would be nice to have it start an hour or two after dark :thumbsup:

Probably more toward midnight. Although I suppose it could be earlier if we get under that initial band of precip shooting out ahead of the system that some models are progging.

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Well the Bufkit application has the following amounts of all snow with the Bourgouin P Type option checked, and max temp in profile checked for snow accumulation.

NAM: .71 QPF // 7.1" Snow

GFS: .63 QPF // 6.0" Snow

I don't think CAE is in the worst spot as these seem to agree a good bit.

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I'm finding this scenario more likely with the new model runs.

590x443_01081702_severe1.png

Don't have any idea why my previous post was deleted. Mods, if you have a problem send me a PM. I generally stick to the topic. I didn't say anything differently than anyone else. This map is wrong. It has very little model support. It may have climo support, but that is about it. I think Henry is betting on a northwest jog. However, if the low took the track on the map, E TN would get very little. That low really needs to be inland for KTRI or KTYS to get snow. If the low took that track central NC and NE GA would get hammered...not to mention W NC. It is indeed like the Curse of the Billy Goat to be on that map. This will get hits on their website since the mid-Atlantic is involved, but I highly doubt it verifies. Honestly, if posts regarding weather in TN keep getting deleted, that would promote the idea that folks in TN are only allowed to discuss weather in their state as long as it doesn't clutter the talk of snow in NC and GA. My understanding is that we are all allowed to participate as long as we stick to the thread topic.

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This map is wrong. It has very little model support. It may have climo support, but that is about it. I think Henry is betting on a northwest jog. However, if the low took the track on the map, E TN would get very little. That low really needs to be inland for KTRI or KTYS to get snow. If the low took that track central NC and NE GA would get hammered...not to mention W NC. It is indeed like the Curse of the Billy Goat to be on that map. This will get hits on their website since the mid-Atlantic is involved, but I higlhy doubt it verifies.

Henry's maps rarely verify. It's a known fact how Accuwx is run and I'm still surprised he's still allowed to make some of these maps even though they defy every computer model. You should have seen his the other day.. it had absolutely nothing in the SE at all. I prefer to check out Frank Strait's video blog for much more accurate SE stuff. Speaking of which TWC actually put out an accumulation forecast of 4-6" for huge chunk of GA/SC. Goes pretty well with current models.

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Don't have any idea why my previous post was deleted. Mods, if you have a problem send me a PM. I generally stick to the topic. I didn't say anything differently than anyone else. This map is wrong. It has very little model support. It may have climo support, but that is about it. I think Henry is betting on a northwest jog. However, if the low took the track on the map, E TN would get very little. That low really needs to be inland for KTRI or KTYS to get snow. If the low took that track central NC and NE GA would get hammered...not to mention W NC. It is indeed like the Curse of the Billy Goat to be on that map. This will get hits on their website since the mid-Atlantic is involved, but I higlhy doubt it verifies. Honestly, if posts regarding weather in TN keep getting deleted, that would promote the idea that folks in TN are only allowed to discuss weather in their state as long as it doesn't clutter the talk of snow in NC and GA. My understanding is that we are all allowed to participate as long as we stick to the thread topic.

Looks VERY reasonable and very close to models. maybe just a bit north for those in the deep south. Doesn't the mix and "bad ice storm" portion of his map come pretty close to what we expect. I expect alot of sleet to keep snow totals in check.

As for the models not showing the low track, it is exactly what most are showing as far as it moving up just off the carolina coast. It's just a very weak low and the mw low moves in to add extra energy - thus the enhanced totals to the north.

Hopefully we don't go degrading forecast just because it doesn't have enough model support. After all, how many times have the models been wrong.

Just my 2 cents.

TW

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The fact that CLT gets about 6 inches of snow whereas DCA receives about 3 inches on BUFKIT and similar models is all the reasoning one should need.

This is not reasoning, this is regurgitating model data. If you can't provide some sound meteorological reasoning for your comment, then expect to have it deleted. If you don't understand the difference, then you're better off reading instead of posting so you can learn how to tell between the two.

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Looks VERY reasonable and very close to models. maybe just a bit north for those in the deep south. Doesn't the mix and "bad ice storm" portion of his map come pretty close to what we expect. I expect alot of sleet to keep snow totals in check.

As for the models not showing the low track, it is exactly what most are showing as far as it moving up just off the carolina coast. It's just a very weak low and the mw low moves in to add extra energy - thus the enhanced totals to the north.

Hopefully we don't go degrading forecast just because it doesn't have enough model support. After all, how many times have the models been wrong.

Just my 2 cents.

TW

Disagree. it says most of north GA is all ice? I doubt that seriously- NO model says that! I say again, stop paying attention to those PA clowns. If they are correct ever it is just throwing mud on the wall and sometimes it sticks.

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Two new model reports: WSI 12KM WRF has 6" of snow and probably some sleet all of north GA into upstate NC. UKMET has about .5 snow same area. Bad news for NC folks, precip really dies out after about CLT....

12z Euro gives me .37 qpf But I'm in NW NC Foothills. But I'm not looking for much, Just hoping for more ! :snowman:

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Disagree. it says most of north GA is all ice? I doubt that seriously- NO model says that! I say again, stop paying attention to those PA clowns. If they are correct ever it is just throwing mud on the wall and sometimes it sticks.

I see your point about the pink "ice" section. I always think of pink as being "mix". I think it is safe to assume that the pink area will likely receive a mix and the "major icing" verbage points right to the area of greatest threat. I think the problem is that many want a "micro forecast" map specific to thier general area when the AW map is meant for a broader interpretation. I still think it is reasonable. Do I agree with all aspects? No, but I don't think any of us would agree wholeheartedly with anyone elses.

TW

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WRF 42 hour radar simulation... (from another forum)

sweet - is there a link for this model (or is it a pay site?) i would like to see the next couple of frames to see which way the precip is moving. (i do not mean a link to the other forum, but a link to where that image is)

so far, even as we approach the event, the models seem to be holding their ground for the most part (a few shifts are obviously likely, but the consistency is still there)

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Looks VERY reasonable and very close to models. maybe just a bit north for those in the deep south. Doesn't the mix and "bad ice storm" portion of his map come pretty close to what we expect. I expect alot of sleet to keep snow totals in check.

As for the models not showing the low track, it is exactly what most are showing as far as it moving up just off the carolina coast. It's just a very weak low and the mw low moves in to add extra energy - thus the enhanced totals to the north.

Hopefully we don't go degrading forecast just because it doesn't have enough model support. After all, how many times have the models been wrong.

Just my 2 cents.

TW

Actually, I don't have a huge problem w/ the track of the low. I disagree w/ the precip shield he has portrayed. The precip (and type) and the low track don't correlate. I can't find any model support either for the low taking a left hand turn - but it's plausible it may. If he puts it on the net, he better be ready to have it critiqued. That's his job, and probably draws more people to his site. And as they say in sports, if you are paying the money to watch the game...then you have a right to criticize. And I do pay Accuweather for their services. So, I can gripe. BTW, I would be in hog heaven if that verified, because I'm in the bullseye of it. It pains me to say it is wrong.

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sweet - is there a link for this model (or is it a pay site?) i would like to see the next couple of frames to see which way the precip is moving. (i do not mean a link to the other forum, but a link to where that image is)

so far, even as we approach the event, the models seem to be holding their ground for the most part (a few shifts are obviously likely, but the consistency is still there)

Technically, that map is from Wright-Weather. They are a pay site, but the data is free and I believe they show a form of it on their own website to an extent. The best trick to the Wright Weather WRF maps, since the area is a little grey is to just put it on tinypic so that way the image is not on this server actually hosted or don't post it at all.

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