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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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The only thing good about it ending as freezing rain or ice is that ice and sleetover snow tend to preserve the snowcover longer than just pure snow.

I would much rather see a 4-6 inch snowfall that hangs around a week or more than a 10 inch snow that's gone in a couple of days. Looking at the temps after the storm, this will be around long enough for everyone to have plenty of winter fun.

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Looking at the GFS Ensemble mean, it seems to indicate that the northern extent of the precipitation field gets shot further eastward into the upstate of SC and into the southwestern portion of NC. This seems to make sense to me as models tend to be too slow with precipitation onset times especially in these overrunning situations. It also shows a heavier band of total precipitation across ne GA extending east to about the CLT area. The last several runs have shown this feature in some form or another.

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After this past year of record breaking heat, severe, cold and snow (dec)...I'm about ready to buy into any out of the ordinary weather pattern across the area. It's like...hey why not? I'm also ready to buy into a long vacation. lol

yeah, yall have had a very busy year...and with so many microclimates for your cwa its amazing how good a job yall do, and how well you separate out the specific counties/areas for the different info/forecast they all have. after this winter, you might even want a vacation in a warmer climate lol

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Cheez...I am hearing reports on other forums that the low has formed about 75 miles to the south of expected model development...Can you or another met confirm?

Not sure what this means- currently? The vort max/trough that is our storm producer is still over Arizona/Mexico.

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No, this looks pretty good. Confidence is high. The only adjustments I can see at this point will be where to put the warnings and advisories, if a distinction is in fact needed. The warm nose and speed of the dry slot are concerns too. But for now, it looks like the weak warm nose will be overcome by diabatic cooling early on through the column given the degree of omega expected. The dry slot is more of an issue tho...and hopefully there is better agreement in the models wrt it's speed and configuration over the next few runs. Still...it doesn't seem like it'll make a large difference as far as warning level snow across ne ga and the upstate.

One thing I've noticed scott is how cold the column is when the snow starts...I think we could really make some hay with much better than typical ratios here. Thoughts?

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Here in the FLO/MYR market, at least my station is going with front end snow, but starting to hit the ice threat much harder now. I have a hard time seeing Florence, Lumberton, Darlington etc... going above freezing.

Curious as to what tv mets are saying in Augusta, Florence etc. In Columbia WIS is still forcasting a wintry mix beginning after midnight with a changeover to rain by mid Monday morning.

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Isn't the low further south than what was progged? James Spann mentioned this on his blog.

he did mention it, but also said it wasnt really that important. we are also almost to the point of nowcast, radar, trends, obs, etc (he also mentions that). no model will probably be exact with the deformation zone. we will know that by the radar and obs

Looks to me like the ensemble is a tad more north and west w/ its precip shield. Ensemble is listed first...

jeesh, i am not really liking or too hip on that hole over west ga and alabama

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maybe WIS will play catch up then. Thanks for the reply. They still feel like the temperatures will rise quickly on Monday morning.

Here in the FLO/MYR market, at least my station is going with front end snow, but starting to hit the ice threat much harder now. I have a hard time seeing Florence, Lumberton, Darlington etc... going above freezing.

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I was about to make a post complaining about how warm we are compared to our forecast high (at 42, forecast of 40), then I realized you would have slapped me upside the head. I'm still in awe at how high the confidence is that we get significant frozen precip-even if upper levels warm, lower level temps will still support sleet and ZR. The GFS still paint a general 4-6" for parts of N GA, very impressive.

lol nah. I haven't paid much attention to today but taken a quick look at the nam/gfs soundings shows that ffc was about right for temps here today. gfs/Nam shows me getting to the mid 40s today..indeed, it's 44. So I have no real complaints with temps today.

Next week, guidance is cold however. I will say that the idea we (outside the mountains)stay in the 20s for 4 days is probably a little overdone because of the gfs issues with respect to the snowpack. I think a more realistic temp forecast would be low to mid 30s outside the mountains and upper 20s to low 30s in the mountains (depending on elevation of course). This is pretty much in line with the euro.

Still that is plenty cold and with what should be a frozen ground, melting will be slow.

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Isn't the low further south than what was progged? James Spann mentioned this on his blog.

pmsl.gif?1294505157315

If you look closely at the model guidance you can see that the SURFACE LOW initially develops over Old Mexico and then swings into the Gulf. Which is pretty much what that map shows. So everything looks right on track.

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Folks, ;you need to refrain from the in my back yard posts and one line comments that add little to no value to the discussion. These posts will be deleted and repeat offenders will be put on a post limit at best or given a timeout altogether. So keep it on topic and think before you post.

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lol nah. I haven't paid much attention to today but taken a quick look at the nam/gfs soundings shows that ffc was about right for temps here today. gfs/Nam shows me getting to the mid 40s today..indeed, it's 44. So I have no real complaints with temps today.

Next week, guidance is cold however. I will say that the idea we (outside the mountains)stay in the 20s for 4 days is probably a little overdone because of the gfs issues with respect to the snowpack. I think a more realistic temp forecast would be low to mid 30s outside the mountains and upper 20s to low 30s in the mountains (depending on elevation of course). This is pretty much in line with the euro.

Still that is plenty cold and with what should be a frozen ground, melting will be slow.

Yeah, assuming they only treat the main roads things will be a mess here through at least Wed morning IMO. I certainly don't see us hitting the upper 30s Tue and Wed like FFC is showing (not to knock on them, they're doing a great job with this storm so far IMO). I suppose the Euro is worth a glance, but if it looks like crap I won't be too bummed out considering the GFS, NAM and RGEM all show at least a 4" event for our area.

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The last several runs of the GFS have been consistent in showing sub-freezing surface temperatures for the rest of the week, and surely snow cover will help keep it down so what is FFC's reasoning for forecasting highs in the mid/upper 30s through Wednesday?

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One thing I've noticed scott is how cold the column is when the snow starts...I think we could really make some hay with much better than typical ratios here. Thoughts?

Yeah the column starts out cold and stays near zero isothermal through about 23Z at CLT, which is good. Snowfall ratios are hard to peg down exactly with BL temps not getting much colder than -5 C...but the strong and deep vertical velocities will enhance the ratios.

The NAM has been consistent lately with giving explicit SLRs at about 15:1 and this seems reasonable given the thermo/dynam structure I just stated and which shows up nicely on Bufkit cross sections with the deep layered and coupled omega (red lines) forming a cross-hair, or "shooting through", the highest snow growth region (yellow lines). This looks to enhance the snowfall ratios early on.

post-866-0-81751500-1294508925.jpg

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The last several runs of the GFS have been consistent in showing sub-freezing surface temperatures for the rest of the week, and surely snow cover will help keep it down so what is FFC's reasoning for forecasting highs in the mid/upper 30s through Wednesday?

They almost never deviate from the GFS MOS guidance.

KATL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/08/2011 1200 UTC

FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192

SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14| SAT 15|SUN CLIMO

N/X 18 37| 27 35| 28 42| 23 37| 23 40| 23 46| 30 50| 38 33 52

TMP 19 31| 29 31| 29 36| 24 31| 24 35| 25 39| 32 45| 40

DPT 6 7| 19 27| 27 29| 18 20| 16 14| 16 19| 23 29| 34

WND 13 9| 21 21| 12 13| 13 13| 11 9| 8 8| 7 8| 7

P12 2 11| 92 73| 14 19| 10 14| 15 19| 13 9| 16 30| 19 26 27

P24 11| 96| 19| 14| 21| 20| 37| 37

Q12 0 0| 3 2| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| |

Q24 0| 4| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

T12 1 1| 1 2| 2 1| 2 1| 2 2| 3 2| 4 3| 5

T24 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7

PZP 7 16| 51 58| 43 22| 14 13| 10 13| 14 15| 18 17| 11

PSN 90 79| 39 7| 3 0| 63 71| 69 60| 50 26| 16 6| 0

PRS 0 0| 2 0| 0 14| 8 4| 0 6| 2 5| 0 8| 4

TYP S S| Z Z| Z Z| S S| S S| S RS| Z Z| R

SNW 0| 4| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

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They almost never deviate from the GFS MOS guidance.

KATL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/08/2011 1200 UTC

FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192

SUN 09| MON 10| TUE 11| WED 12| THU 13| FRI 14| SAT 15|SUN CLIMO

N/X 18 37| 27 35| 28 42| 23 37| 23 40| 23 46| 30 50| 38 33 52

TMP 19 31| 29 31| 29 36| 24 31| 24 35| 25 39| 32 45| 40

DPT 6 7| 19 27| 27 29| 18 20| 16 14| 16 19| 23 29| 34

WND 13 9| 21 21| 12 13| 13 13| 11 9| 8 8| 7 8| 7

P12 2 11| 92 73| 14 19| 10 14| 15 19| 13 9| 16 30| 19 26 27

P24 11| 96| 19| 14| 21| 20| 37| 37

Q12 0 0| 3 2| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| |

Q24 0| 4| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

T12 1 1| 1 2| 2 1| 2 1| 2 2| 3 2| 4 3| 5

T24 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7

PZP 7 16| 51 58| 43 22| 14 13| 10 13| 14 15| 18 17| 11

PSN 90 79| 39 7| 3 0| 63 71| 69 60| 50 26| 16 6| 0

PRS 0 0| 2 0| 0 14| 8 4| 0 6| 2 5| 0 8| 4

TYP S S| Z Z| Z Z| S S| S S| S RS| Z Z| R

SNW 0| 4| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

Maybe if Steve has a moment to get online (bet he's SWAMPED!) he can tell us why.

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12z JMA still yummy.

That would be how I would expect a system in this part of the country to look. That said, riding w/ the JMA is like riding a motorcycle w/ no brakes and no helmet. It gives a good adrenaline rush at first, but in the end things can get messy. To its credit, it does sniff out a ton of storms and I do look at it regularly. Thanks for posting it.

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