Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This season, it seems some systems (clippers) have underperformed in my area. Along the lines of what Lookout stated, the systems from the southwest have overperformed. I suspect, as a multitude have stated, that this storm will hold together longer than the models predict - especially for points from south of Knoxville and from around Atlanta to the north. The scenario that I have been watching is what will happen in the centeral and northern TN Valley in terms of qpf? I think it's 50/50 that those areas will go 4+ inches of snow w/ chances probably decreasing as one approaches SW Virginia. Tnweathernut has hinted at this all week. However, it was just earlier this week that a system "punched" enough moisture up the valley to drop 2" snow from KTYS to KTRI - overperforming in terms of snow amounts. That system came further north and west than the models predicted. The upcoming system will be more robust in terms of energy. I'd be interested to hear what the NE TN crew is thinking about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ON a different topic, jut got a heavy grauple shower and we got a quick dusting with temp falling from 44 to 36 in 20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For someone who often does better than most, it's always been funny to me you are one of the most skeptical. So if you are convinced, we know it's looking good lol lol - i cant believe i am convinced either and hope i am not going to be suicidal monday lmao. i am usually skeptical cos so many things can go wrong, esp when the models show a snow storm this far out. this set up is rare, and while i didnt have the internet growing up, from all i can tell this is the set up we had back then (i obviously watched the news and listend to noaa radio). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think that map was posted after the 06Z runs this morning...But yes, very nice. If that even comes close to validating I'll have a good bit over a foot on the ground before this is done. I'm sitting on 7.5 right now. Add to that its basically not supposed to get over freezing for a week. And that next thing moving over the plains right now. ... Not to gush, but I don't think i could have it any better this year haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's still nothing to scalf at. If we do, we are certainly getting spoiled and some are start sounding like the mid atlantic folks complaining about "only getting 6 inches". But I fully expect there is going to a stripe of heavier amounts associated with mesoscale banding features. However or wherever gets under those will be the big winners. Even without it 4 to 6 is a big deal for north ga. I don't think it can be emphasized enough that for those who think it's not, consider this. All 3 of our last big snows had negatives that this storm won't have. The last 3 had either warm ground temps, rain before hand, fell mainly in the daytime, and with temps around or not much below freezing or some combination thereof. This system is different. There is no rain before hand. With cold temps tonight/tomorrow the ground will be cold. It falls mainly at night/early morning. And temps are going to be in the 23 to 26 degree range. As good as these last 3 storms were, we lost a lot to melting from underneath, was hurt by solar insolation, and we didn't have temps cold enough to compensate. Not this time. I think some folks will be surprised by how good a 6 inch snow that fully accumulates/doesn't melt looks. This keeps looking like warm air chasing the snow, to me. That right there would make this very unusual..to be so contrary. Where do you get your gfs maps? Thanks, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just send those vibes right on up and north of I-85.. lol - i cant believe i am convinced either and hope i am not going to be suicidal monday lmao. i am usually skeptical cos so many things can go wrong, esp when the models show a snow storm this far out. this set up is rare, and while i didnt have the internet growing up, from all i can tell this is the set up we had back then (i obviously watched the news and listend to noaa radio). Just an update.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1145 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 ...SNOW SHOWERS AND ICY ROADS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS... ...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY... .NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL FURTHER CREATE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS IN MANY NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TODAY. MEANWHILE...A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY TUESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. 1145 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. * TIMING...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO START BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...AND POINTS SOUTH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME VERY SLIPPERY QUITE QUICKLY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENT...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATER ON...COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just send those vibes right on up and north of I-85.. thats what I'm thinking. Hopefully this one will be the 74 corridor's storm! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's still nothing to scalf at. If we do, we are certainly getting spoiled and some are start sounding like the mid atlantic folks complaining about "only getting 6 inches". But I fully expect there is going to a stripe of heavier amounts associated with mesoscale banding features. However or wherever gets under those will be the big winners. Even without it 4 to 6 is a big deal for north ga. I don't think it can be emphasized enough that for those who think it's not, consider this. All 3 of our last big snows had negatives that this storm won't have. The last 3 had either warm ground temps, rain before hand, fell mainly in the daytime, and with temps around or not much below freezing or some combination thereof. This system is different. There is no rain before hand. With cold temps tonight/tomorrow the ground will be cold. It falls mainly at night/early morning. And temps are going to be in the 23 to 26 degree range. As good as these last 3 storms were, we lost a lot to melting from underneath, was hurt by solar insolation, and we didn't have temps cold enough to compensate. Not this time. I think some folks will be surprised by how good a 6 inch snow that fully accumulates/doesn't melt looks. Definitely going to be a huge difference with the amount of snow that sticks and obviously road conditions due to the timing. Seems like it has been quite a while since we actually had a good snow at night with temps cold enough to stick right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM looks good for central NC, 850's look colder too, although it's a pain reading those maps. Looks like 0.50" of precip, similar to GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This keeps looking like warm air chasing the snow, to me. That right there would make this very unusual..to be so contrary. Where do you get your gfs maps? Thanks, T Wow....when's the last time we had warm air chasing snow? 99% of the time it's the other way around. I think all of the potential cliff jumpers need to take a deep breath. I've lived here my whole life and expecting 20" of snow is completely unrealistic. 4 to 8" will be one hell of a storm, especially with all of our usual negatives out of the way like Lookout stated. Seeing it pile up during the overnight with temps in the mid 20's is going to be something. We're realistically a little over 24 hours away, I can't see all the models pulling a huge fail on us within 24 hrs, especially when they've been showing more or less the same scenario for almost 7 days now. It's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think that map was posted after the 06Z runs this morning...But yes, very nice. It was posted after that time, but the 06Z data wasn't used in making the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So it was the 00z data then ? Not a made time stamp on the image... thanks It was posted after that time, but the 06Z data wasn't used in making the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Strange on the GGEM, it's showing the precip hole in central AL/GA too. Although it's hard to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow....when's the last time we had warm air chasing snow? 99% of the time it's the other way around. I think all of the potential cliff jumpers need to take a deep breath. I've lived here my whole life and expecting 20" of snow is completely unrealistic. 4 to 8" will be one hell of a storm, especially with all of our usual negatives out of the way like Lookout stated. Seeing it pile up during the overnight with temps in the mid 20's is going to be something. We're realistically a little over 24 hours away, I can't see all the models pulling a huge fail on us within 24 hrs, especially when they've been showing more or less the same scenario for almost 7 days now. It's game on. bingo. awesome post! and i hadnt thought of that, you are right. 'warm air chasing snow' is something i dont recall ever hearing in ga lol. the only disagreement is with your 20 inch comment, 'expecting' a foot is sort of unrealistic in ga lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So it was the 00z data then ? Not a made time stamp on the image... thanks Mostly yeah. The off-time SREF data was also incorporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mostly yeah. The off-time SREF data was also incorporated. so yall arent going to take away our winter storm tomorrow afternoon, are you lol just joking - gsp (my office thankfully) does a great job. just like we dont get this often, yall probably dont get to forecast this very often (other than the nc mtns) edited to add: this is a near perfect timing for ne ga and the upstate. moves in at dark and gets some snow down, then we get to see the heavy snow falling in the daylight hours monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 bingo. awesome post! and i hadnt thought of that, you are right. 'warm air chasing snow' is something i dont recall ever hearing in ga lol. the only disagreement is with your 20 inch comment, 'expecting' a foot is sort of unrealistic in ga lmao Not for you! It certainly would be here! People down here are going bonkers now. Grocery stores jammed, it's almost like you forecasted the end of the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 bingo. awesome post! and i hadnt thought of that, you are right. 'warm air chasing snow' is something i dont recall ever hearing in ga lol. the only disagreement is with your 20 inch comment, 'expecting' a foot is sort of unrealistic in ga lmao Ha! Yeah, should've changed that to a foot, not 20 inches.......I can't believe that we're a little over 24 hrs away from being in the (potential) sweet spot. It really has been a long time. With the Christmas storm, we had at least 3 hrs of light to moderate snow w/o sticking due to temps, ground temps, etc.... This is gonna be awesome, even if we don't get a foot, it'll be sweet how much actually piles on overnight with these temps. Remember also, the low tonight for our area (my area) is around 19. That shoud do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Temps here are forecast in the mid 30's all week, hope they are a little lower. Yesterday they were in high 20's/ low 30's. Those temps are totally bogus. Virtually zero chance they verify. Dsaur..just the usual places, including twister. I use plymouth and nrl for soundings. I'm sure you know plymouth but here is nrl http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=01&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=08&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&archive=false On a side note, I'm still just amazed how cold the boundary layer is with this storm. nam/gfs show 900 to 950mb temps anywhere from -6 or -7c at 950mb to -9c at 900mb in extreme northeast Ga. For a few hour period, around hour 45, it even drops the 850mb temp in a part of the upstate to -9c! The 850s of course warm with time but the boundary layer, especially from 925mb down stays extremely cold throughout the storm. Generally -5c or colder. It seems so bizarre because 99/100 times I'm sitting here looking at these levels and the cold air stays in the carolinas or is just a degree or two below freezing. It makes this storm rather special for sounding geeks like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not for you! It certainly would be here! People down here are going bonkers now. Grocery stores jammed, it's almost like you forecasted the end of the world! you might be surprised...christmas had several hours of heavy snow before getting below freezing. my mom called from athens, said she tried to get to the store and it was a nightmare Ha! Yeah, should've changed that to a foot, not 20 inches.......I can't believe that we're a little over 24 hrs away from being in the (potential) sweet spot. It really has been a long time. With the Christmas storm, we had at least 3 hrs of light to moderate snow w/o sticking due to temps, ground temps, etc.... This is gonna be awesome, even if we don't get a foot, it'll be sweet how much actually piles on overnight with these temps. Remember also, the low tonight for our area (my area) is around 19. That shoud do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! you are also in a great place, just down the road from me so to speak. the most exciting part is that we are getting less and less time for something to go wrong Those temps are totally bogus. Virtually zero chance they verify. On a side note, I'm still just amazed how cold the boundary layer is with this storm. nam/gfs show 900 to 950mb temps anywhere from -6 or -7c at 950mb to -9c at 900mb in extreme northeast Ga. For a few hour period, around hour 45, it even drops the 850mb temp in a part of the upstate to -9c! The 850s of course warm with time but the boundary layer, especially from 925mb down stays extremely cold throughout the storm. Generally -5c or colder. It seems so bizarre because 99/100 times I'm sitting here looking at these levels and the cold air stays in the carolinas or is just a degree or two below freezing. It makes this storm rather special for sounding geeks like me. this makes it even better, that should yield some awesome ratios for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Strange on the GGEM, it's showing the precip hole in central AL/GA too. Although it's hard to read. Just to clarify, it's over southern alabama/southwest ga. Again I think it's because the system is shearing out as it moves east and then it encounters the deep wedge over the interior southeast which increases isentropic lift which helps us out. Given the model agreement for this hole, it's hard to argue it's not real but it could be overdone, just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Those temps are totally bogus. Virtually zero chance they verify. Dsaur..just the usual places, including twister. I use plymouth and nrl for soundings. I'm sure you know plymouth but here is nrl http://ready.arl.noa...v/READYcmet.php http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false On a side note, I'm still just amazed how cold the boundary layer is with this storm. nam/gfs show 900 to 950mb temps anywhere from -6 or -7c at 950mb to -9c at 900mb in extreme northeast Ga. For a few hour period, around hour 45, it even drops the 850mb temp in a part of the upstate to -9c! The 850s of course warm with time but the boundary layer, especially from 925mb down stays extremely cold throughout the storm. Generally -5c or colder. It seems so bizarre because 99/100 times I'm sitting here looking at these levels and the cold air stays in the carolinas or is just a degree or two below freezing. It makes this storm rather special for sounding geeks like me. Thanks! It would be really sad to have to fight temps with this great looking event unfolding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Those temps are totally bogus. Virtually zero chance they verify. Dsaur..just the usual places, including twister. I use plymouth and nrl for soundings. I'm sure you know plymouth but here is nrl http://ready.arl.noa...v/READYcmet.php http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false On a side note, I'm still just amazed how cold the boundary layer is with this storm. nam/gfs show 900 to 950mb temps anywhere from -6 or -7c at 950mb to -9c at 900mb in extreme northeast Ga. For a few hour period, around hour 45, it even drops the 850mb temp in a part of the upstate to -9c! The 850s of course warm with time but the boundary layer, especially from 925mb down stays extremely cold throughout the storm. Generally -5c or colder. It seems so bizarre because 99/100 times I'm sitting here looking at these levels and the cold air stays in the carolinas or is just a degree or two below freezing. It makes this storm rather special for sounding geeks like me. I was about to make a post complaining about how warm we are compared to our forecast high (at 42, forecast of 40), then I realized you would have slapped me upside the head. I'm still in awe at how high the confidence is that we get significant frozen precip-even if upper levels warm, lower level temps will still support sleet and ZR. The GFS still paint a general 4-6" for parts of N GA, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Snowing BIG flakes in Belmont, NC! Very windy. Where did this come from? This should telll ya that front end precious should be more for upcoming system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so yall arent going to take away our winter storm tomorrow afternoon, are you lol just joking - gsp (my office thankfully) does a great job. just like we dont get this often, yall probably dont get to forecast this very often (other than the nc mtns) No, this looks pretty good. Confidence is high. The only adjustments I can see at this point will be where to put the warnings and advisories, if a distinction is in fact needed. The warm nose and speed of the dry slot are concerns too. But for now, it looks like the weak warm nose will be overcome by diabatic cooling early on through the column given the degree of omega expected. The dry slot is more of an issue tho...and hopefully there is better agreement in the models wrt it's speed and configuration over the next few runs. Still...it doesn't seem like it'll make a large difference as far as warning level snow across ne ga and the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The only thing good about it ending as freezing rain or ice is that ice and sleetover snow tend to preserve the snowcover longer than just pure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No, this looks pretty good. Confidence is high. The only adjustments I can see at this point will be where to put the warnings and advisories, if a distinction is in fact needed. The warm nose and speed of the dry slot are concerns too. But for now, it looks like the weak warm nose will be overcome by diabatic cooling early on through the column given the degree of omega expected. The dry slot is more of an issue tho...and hopefully there is better agreement in the models wrt it's speed and configuration over the next few runs. Still...it doesn't seem like it'll make a large difference as far as warning level snow across ne ga and the upstate. awesome! thanks for the reply! i remember some of the biggies in the 80s would give snow, then a changeover so that is not to be unexpected many times around here. i think a lot of us are just not used to this set up, esp since this is the first in the internet age with the boards, tools, models, radar etc. we are so used to things going wrong, its hard to comprehend such a high confidence level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OK, just got up and really nothing has changed. Models incredibly consistent, and though I am usually not a huge NAM fan, when you get inside 48 hours and it is consistent it can and will beat the GFS. Given that and the fact the RGEM is also wetter, I am leaning in the direction of about 5-6" here over the GFS's 3-4". That is right in my 4-6" range over the ATL metro. Then the warm air comes in aloft but this will be with lighter precip, hopefully under a quarter inch and some of that will be sleet. So I ATTM do not expect major icing issues here. So after I realized that the earlier model runs with 8-10" here were bogus, I will not be disappointed at all with over 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like the trends over the past 24 hours with respectable qpf being a mainstay in showing up in NC. For my area I'll be suprised if we dont see .50 out of this system. If Im off , Id lend credence to amounts being slightly higher. Now the big piece of the puzzle will be depicting precip types. I have high confidence of front end snow, with atleast .25+ all snow and back end freezing drizzle/snizzle with dendrite layer drying out. Without dynamical enhancement, WAA will work its magic up top with a warm nose. Not sure at what time or to what extent/ it punches in above MBY. So 3-6 with crust on top is a safe bet at this point from where things stand. By the way had 2 seperate/short lived snow shower events today. I have had freezing precip every weekend since met/winter began in December, with the exception of New Years weekend Rain event. 1 1/2 inches will put me at my seasonal average. Not bad considering we are a week away from the dead of winter and still have another 1/2 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 awesome! thanks for the reply! i remember some of the biggies in the 80s would give snow, then a changeover so that is not to be unexpected many times around here. i think a lot of us are just not used to this set up, esp since this is the first in the internet age with the boards, tools, models, radar etc. we are so used to things going wrong, its hard to comprehend such a high confidence level After this past year of record breaking global heat, severe, cold and snow (dec)...I'm about ready to buy into any out of the ordinary weather pattern across the area. It's like...hey why not? I'm also ready to buy into a long vacation. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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