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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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Well for N. Georgia, 12z GFS is not nearly the bomb 00z dropped on us. :whistle:

?? not sure what you are talking about. looks like the gfs has a huge hunk of n ga in 6" by about hour 48 or 54

you might be in that area as well. i know where loganville is, but i just cant quite tell specific enough to see if your back yard is there. most of ne ga is over half a foot!

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?? not sure what you are talking about. looks like the gfs has a huge hunk of n ga in 6" by about hour 48 or 54

The models had been putting out some almost unreal (well, not unreal in weather) totals and they're trending lighter now. 6-8 is awesome though imo. I think earlier runs had anderson, sc at like what? 18 inches? and GSP at 13+?

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I managed 3.5" with the Christmas storm from .5" of liquid. Half of that didn't stick during the day. I would definately take the .5" and the colder air/ground this time. It should manage to even beat last February. I half to say though, if NC gets hit hard again and I end up with half as much I will be upset. Can't y'all share with us just once. GA is like the younger brother to NC in the snow department. We get the hand-me-downs.:lol:

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I think that our area (Columbia-Charleston) is due for a major ice storm with this. Add a few inches of snow and some sleet, and it could be really bad. Remember, Nikki Haley's inauguration is Wednesday, and there's a family fun night at the Fairgrounds on Tuesday night.

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The models had been putting out some almost unreal (well, not unreal in weather) totals and they're trending lighter now. 6-8 is awesome though imo. I think earlier runs had anderson, sc at like what? 18 inches? and GSP at 13+?

The 0z dumped over a foot on my area. 13.4 inches to be exact. Now it has half that.

maybe i am just more of a realistic lol. i dont care whether i get 6 or 8, that is still one heck of a se snowstorm. honestly, i never believed the foot plus amounts here, that is just a huge and rare number for our area. i have been thinking 4-8 (of course more is better) but try to keep my expectations tempered. at this point the amounts are in question, but barring a major catastrophe we are all going to get what we have been waiting for, a large, wide spread monster se winter storm

i dont know why every one is down. i have lived in MN and DC (total of 20 years both locations) and the number of foot plus snowfalls i have seen is probably about a dozen or less (although granted some of those were 24" snows)

just having a hard time understanding why 6" is a let down? even 4" is a great snowfall around here

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I think that our area (Columbia-Charleston) is due for a major ice storm with this. Add a few inches of snow and some sleet, and it could be really bad. Remember, Nikki Haley's inauguration is Wednesday, and there's a family fun night at the Fairgrounds on Tuesday night.

Ice ontop of snow is much much better though. I hear it makes some amazing picture taking settings, and that's all I'm going for.. for everyone.. a good amount of snow before the ice.. those hpc maps are 12 hrs out of data compared to trends imo, but they know a lot more than me!

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Well for N. Georgia, 12z GFS is not nearly the bomb 00z dropped on us. :whistle:

It's still nothing to scalf at. If we do, we are certainly getting spoiled and some are start sounding like the mid atlantic folks complaining about "only getting 6 inches". :axe:

But I fully expect there is going to a stripe of heavier amounts associated with mesoscale banding features. However or wherever gets under those will be the big winners. Even without it 4 to 6 is a big deal for north ga.

I don't think it can be emphasized enough that for those who think it's not, consider this. All 3 of our last big snows had negatives that this storm won't have. The last 3 had either warm ground temps, rain before hand, fell mainly in the daytime, and with temps around or not much below freezing or some combination thereof.

This system is different. There is no rain before hand. With cold temps tonight/tomorrow the ground will be cold. It falls mainly at night/early morning. And temps are going to be in the 23 to 26 degree range. As good as these last 3 storms were, we lost a lot to melting from underneath, was hurt by solar insolation, and we didn't have temps cold enough to compensate. Not this time. I think some folks will be surprised by how good a 6 inch snow that fully accumulates/doesn't melt looks.

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It's still nothing to scalf at. If we do, we are certainly getting spoiled and start sounding like the mid atlantic folks. :axe:

But I fully expect there is going to a stripe of heavier amounts associated with mesoscale banding features. However or wherever gets under those will be the big winners. Even without it 4 to 6 is a big deal for north ga.

I don't think it can be emphasized enough that for those who think it's not, consider this. All 3 of our last big snows had negatives that this storm won't have. The last 3 had either warm ground temps, rain before hand, fell mainly in the daytime, and with temps around or not much below freezing or some combination thereof.

This system is different. There is no rain before hand. With cold temps tonight/tomorrow the ground will be cold. It falls mainly at night/early morning. And temps are going to be in the 23 to 26 degree range. As good as these last 3 storms were, we lost a lot to melting from underneath, were hurt by solar insolation, and temps not cold enough to compensate. Not this time. I think some folks will be surprised by how good a 6 inch snow that fully accumulates/doesn't melt looks.

thank goodness i am not a lone! see my post above - even if the forecast is for 12" and you end up with 7.5" why on earth would you be 'down' (now it a foot is forecasted and you get 2" i could understand).

this is the typical shifting of amounts as we get closer, and the end result will probably be a little different from what any of the models are showing.

everyone calm down and enjoy tracking and experiencing a whopper of a storm. its looking really good! and as you stated, temps should not be an issue, which in and of itself is rare around here. the last couple of biggies were just marginal imby so i am really excited about this.

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maybe i am just more of a realistic lol. i dont care whether i get 6 or 8, that is still one heck of a se snowstorm. honestly, i never believed the foot plus amounts here, that is just a huge and rare number for our area. i have been thinking 4-8 (of course more is better) but try to keep my expectations tempered. at this point the amounts are in question, but barring a major catastrophe we are all going to get what we have been waiting for, a large, wide spread monster se winter storm

i dont know why every one is down. i have lived in MN and DC (total of 20 years both locations) and the number of foot plus snowfalls i have seen is probably about a dozen or less (although granted some of those were 24" snows)

just having a hard time understanding why 6" is a let down? even 4" is a great snowfall around here

Oh, i'm not disappointed. I'd be thrilled with 4 inches even. I'm just worried something bad is going to happen just like it always does and screw the upstate area. Last year when NWS predicted i'd get 5.4 inches of snow, I only got a dusting. I'm worried the precip will die off before it gets here, convection will rob us, warm layer will develop, etc.

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What's up with the bufkit warehous cobb data? These numbers don't even come close to the wxcaster snow maps or even loading the nam data into the bufkit app itself and enabling/disabling features for the cae area... thinking about it.. that site's always been wrong on accumulation compared to the actual bufkit application..

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Oh, i'm not disappointed. I'd be thrilled with even 4 inches but i'm just worried something bad is going to happen just like it always does and screw the upstate area. Last year when NWS predicted i'd get 5.4 inches of snow, I only got a dusting. I'm worried the precip will die off before it gets here, convection will rob us, warm layer will develop, etc.

ok, now that i can relate to lol. i remember our 3-5" of snow and .75 of ice last jan 30 that never materialized, even though it was obvious by mid morning and the forecasts hadnt changed (keeping up that hope). i think i posted elsewhere i am waiting on the catastrophe to happen lmao.

but the closer we get the less likely that is. with the temps cold enough, all it takes is nowcasting and checking the radar tomorrow. we will see this one coming (or not)

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Oh, i'm not disappointed. I'd be thrilled with 4 inches even. I'm just worried something bad is going to happen just like it always does and screw the upstate area. Last year when NWS predicted i'd get 5.4 inches of snow, I only got a dusting. I'm worried the precip will die off before it gets here, convection will rob us, warm layer will develop, etc.

Well fwiw, the last 3 snow storms I have gotten more than the nws predicted..in some cases a lot more. This is a good setup and it would take a lot for it to go wrong imo. So don't worry so much if the models vary a little bit on totals. More than likely the earlier runs of the gfs were picking up on the mesoscale banding I mentioned while the last few don't. But overall the models are in excellent agreement and when you see that good of agreement, it's about as good of a done deal as it gets around here.

Of course something still might go wrong and I'm not saying it won't but we are in a pretty damn good spot right now.

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Off Raleigh's page... For MBY

0z NAM--- 10-11 inches

0z GFS--- 5-6 inches

6z NAM--- 7-8 inches

6z GFS--- 4 inches

12z NAM--- 7 inches

12z GFS--- 4-5 inches

those have been fluctuating - up and down. if each consecutive run was less and less i would be more concerned. but it goes 7 down to 4 back to 7 down to 5. . .the lowest is 4" which is still not bad at all! thats not uncommon - the amounts should start being nailed down more the closer we get. and thank goodness the wait is down to a day or day and a half. i wish i could just sleep now and wake up tomorrow about 5 pm lol

besides, the last few events here have OVERperformed!! this is a juicy system. and over performance in this instance with a little more qpf and higher rations initially, a little will go a long way

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It's still nothing to scalf at. If we do, we are certainly getting spoiled and some are start sounding like the mid atlantic folks complaining about "only getting 6 inches". :axe:

But I fully expect there is going to a stripe of heavier amounts associated with mesoscale banding features. However or wherever gets under those will be the big winners. Even without it 4 to 6 is a big deal for north ga.

I don't think it can be emphasized enough that for those who think it's not, consider this. All 3 of our last big snows had negatives that this storm won't have. The last 3 had either warm ground temps, rain before hand, fell mainly in the daytime, and with temps around or not much below freezing or some combination thereof.

This system is different. There is no rain before hand. With cold temps tonight/tomorrow the ground will be cold. It falls mainly at night/early morning. And temps are going to be in the 23 to 26 degree range. As good as these last 3 storms were, we lost a lot to melting from underneath, was hurt by solar insolation, and we didn't have temps cold enough to compensate. Not this time. I think some folks will be surprised by how good a 6 inch snow that fully accumulates/doesn't melt looks.

I agree. I wish this were starting here several hours before dawn, instead of right at dawn, so we could have a couple inches already to start when the daylight arrives. I like the UVV's shown on all models now, and even GGEM isn't drying out the good rates on this side of the mountain, only to redevelope them that all models were doing until now. So I think I have a shot, along with LilJ Blue guy, not to miss a good snow this time. Downslope won't be a problem as we have easterly northeast winds and good dynamics aloft. I actually think it may enhance totals in western SC this time. Good storm shown in my opinion for very many folks.

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Warm air advection. Even with such a cold start aloft this pattern has strong WAA, but thats what delivers the snow. Its a typical winter storm here, with 3 to 6" snow and followed by a crust of ice. I'm sure the amounts will waffle, and there could be areas with more and some with less, but its hard to predict, especially in this county.

Robert, the WAA is result of the lp that will be riding up near the Apps, correct? If that feature wasn't on the playing field it seems like with the set up we should be plenty cold enough.

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I agree. I wish this were starting here several hours before dawn, instead of right at dawn, so we could have a couple inches already to start when the daylight arrives. I like the UVV's shown on all models now, and even GGEM isn't drying out the good rates on this side of the mountain, only to redevelope them that all models were doing until now. So I think I have a shot, along with LilJ Blue guy, not to miss a good snow this time. Downslope won't be a problem as we have easterly northeast winds and good dynamics aloft. I actually think it may enhance totals in western SC this time. Good storm shown in my opinion for very many folks.

i love to hear that, esp from a pro met (and i have learned when lookout is really excited, its time to get really excited myself lol)

this set up is so different (at least it seems to me) than a lot of storms lately. in the 70s/80s when these storms were forecasted, they did pan out many times. i like this set up because, while yes things can go wrong, we arent threading the needle like christmas, the set up is very conducive for this area and we dont worry about temps (at least initially).

as soon as i see the radar light up and head this way tomorrow, i will stop worry and really start enjoying

I would just like to get the experts opinions on this because I haven't this this discussed anywhere. If it was then I apologize. At what point do we get concerned about ice? Is it really an inch or can it be less? What amount can really create big time havoc?

its hard to be specific, cos each tree, etc is different

generally, .25 inch is pretty and noticeable and brings down some smaller limbs but isnt a severe ice storm

once you hit .5 that is some signficant ice with power out and trees down more likely. above .75 and thats a monster ice storm

(1" or more, give up on power for multiple days)

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I would just like to get the experts opinions on this because I haven't this this discussed anywhere. If it was then I apologize. At what point do we get concerned about ice? Is it really an inch or can it be less? What amount can really create big time havoc?

Once you're above a quarter inch, you start talking power outages.

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I would just like to get the experts opinions on this because I haven't this this discussed anywhere. If it was then I apologize. At what point do we get concerned about ice? Is it really an inch or can it be less? What amount can really create big time havoc?

You need to tell us where you are. Put your location in your profile.

But generally most things can tolerate 0.25..when you get more than that, that is when you start seeing some trees snap. 0.50 or more is what I consider a bad icestorm. That much normally does a good bit of damage to some trees. Plus it also depends on how long it's been since the last one. If it's been a long time, there is likely more dead or weak limbs that will come down.

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I'm pretty sure I can see NEGa drooling at that map :thumbsup::P

mild understatement lol. its hard to believe on my end, but at this point i am definitely convinced we are going to have a major winter storm....and this is a day and a half out. i wasnt sure about christmas until late christmas eve, and last march i wasnt convinced until the precip started and it was snow (temps were marginal)

the only thing i am really waiting for, so to speak, is to start nailing down the qpf for ne ga a little better. if its still showing good qpf on the models tonight and tomorrow morning my expectations will obviously be going much higher

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mild understatement lol. its hard to believe on my end, but at this point i am definitely convinced we are going to have a major winter storm....and this is a day and a half out. i wasnt sure about christmas until late christmas eve, and last march i wasnt convinced until the precip started and it was snow (temps were marginal)

For someone who often does better than most, it's always been funny to me you are one of the most skeptical.

So if you are convinced, we know it's looking good lol ;)

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It's still nothing to scalf at. If we do, we are certainly getting spoiled and some are start sounding like the mid atlantic folks complaining about "only getting 6 inches". :axe:

But I fully expect there is going to a stripe of heavier amounts associated with mesoscale banding features. However or wherever gets under those will be the big winners. Even without it 4 to 6 is a big deal for north ga.

I don't think it can be emphasized enough that for those who think it's not, consider this. All 3 of our last big snows had negatives that this storm won't have. The last 3 had either warm ground temps, rain before hand, fell mainly in the daytime, and with temps around or not much below freezing or some combination thereof.

This system is different. There is no rain before hand. With cold temps tonight/tomorrow the ground will be cold. It falls mainly at night/early morning. And temps are going to be in the 23 to 26 degree range. As good as these last 3 storms were, we lost a lot to melting from underneath, was hurt by solar insolation, and we didn't have temps cold enough to compensate. Not this time. I think some folks will be surprised by how good a 6 inch snow that fully accumulates/doesn't melt looks.

Temps here are forecast in the mid 30's all week, hope they are a little lower. Yesterday they were in high 20's/ low 30's.

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