NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 through hour 60, which is the changeover for CLT and 74 region approximately, theres been .50" CLT, and about .60" or so for the Upstate to most of western NC. Thats all snow, so not bad. Why do the 850's jump so far? I figured we had plentiful cold air for all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like around .40 across Metro Atlanta before the change over near 12z. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've been in the bullseye or close to it now for 2 days. That is pretty remarkable and it will be even more remarkable if it ends up being true. I'm of the belief the warm nose is chasing the back edge of the snow..so that by the time it gets here, the major stuff is over anyway. thats how it usually works. WAA snows. which is the best snows, IMO. Verbatim this run looks less impressive for Atlanta for snow...lower QPF and much warmer 850's. I do think this run is having issues because if you look at the Omegas at times there is strong Omega in AL and then just 20 miles over there is a strong minus Omega. The Omega field should look like a more uniform area of lift rather that having strong plus's and minus's near each other like it is showing now. That probably explains the QPF issues in parts of AL and GA that this model is spitting out. Model chaos factor, blips and unknowns which gives minor shifts run to run. The 5H looks pretty agreeable on most of the guidance now, so we blend the surface. Still major snowstorm northern third of GA i think. Uggg @66 looks like it might be some icing issues for everyone in NC, those 850's jump almost to VA See above. WAA is how we always got our good ones, after that , we'ere freezing drizzle. The NAM had a day's worth afterwards LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the vort is much stronger, extremely imprssive through 39 hours, now in nw Miss. coming out of northern LA. Precip arrives faster. whats odd is some of the other forecasters around here keep using the RPM model which doesnt match up at all with the other model scenarios. Here in NW MS its only showing a couple inches. Stretches aross AL with same and explodes rates around ATL. NWS offices are all over the place with this one. LIT says 4-6 in their viewing area. JAN says 4-8 for our area. Its just all over the place at this point. Dont see any reason why it wouldnt be toward the higher end with the system very much dynamically strong by the time it passes the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On the SV snow map it has CLT to Huntersville east to ILM in 4-8...everyone west is in 2-4, then the NW section of SC is in 4-8. Points in between to the west are 2-4...over all still a good run, let's see if the Euro finally follows suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Uggg @66 looks like it might be some icing issues for everyone in NC, those 850's jump almost to VA Yeah, this is going be extremely ugly with the ice, tree limbs down, power outages, if the precip pans out like it's showing. Still .5" of precip in central NC with .75: getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 through hour 60, which is the changeover for CLT and 74 region approximately, theres been .50" CLT, and about .60" or so for the Upstate to most of western NC. Thats all snow, so not bad. With the initial rates here of at least 15:1 i'd take it and run!! That being said the GFS has had a hard time with qpf in this area, has been under done for the last 6 months so my hopes are starting to climb for the upstate and ne ga. Hopefully it'll catch ya'll too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I thought that at this stage of the game we were no longer concerned what the euro says??? You can see the difference here between the nam/gfs with respect to the orientation. The nam's would imply a longer period of heavy snow/precip than the gfs over north Ga. Ggem agrees with the nam while the euro sort of agrees with the gfs. Who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the changeover happens right around 0z on Tuesday as we lose RH in the snow growth zone but not before half an inch of QPF has fallen as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't think we should go jumping off cliffs but this storm doesn't look nearly as impressive as yesterday... Maybe I'm just not looking at it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 See above. WAA is how we always got our good ones, after that , we'ere freezing drizzle. The NAM had a day's worth afterwards LOL. Gotcha, so you aren't buying the heavier returns with the 850's so high? I'm just worried about .25 of ice with it I'm never good thought at figuring out QPF just by the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro is King this winter. So i'll wait for him to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On the SV snow map it has CLT to Huntersville east to ILM in 4-8...everyone west is in 2-4, then the NW section of SC is in 4-8. Points in between to the west are 2-4...over all still a good run, let's see if the Euro finally follows suite. Those maps assume 10:1 ratio too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Okay, the GFS seems to be mainly snow for the first .59 in CAE then probably around .20-.25 of the nasty. Good trends for CAE I'd say.. So far from last night's GGEM, this mornings NAM, last nights Euro, and now the GFS... it's less of an ice storm and more snow.. which is what I was praying for. I will not get mad at 5 inches+ whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Geez, what happens in AL and on the west side of GA with the snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Why do the 850's jump so far? I figured we had plentiful cold air for all snow? Warm air advection. Even with such a cold start aloft this pattern has strong WAA, but thats what delivers the snow. Its a typical winter storm here, with 3 to 6" snow and followed by a crust of ice. I'm sure the amounts will waffle, and there could be areas with more and some with less, but its hard to predict, especially in this county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Geez, what happens in AL and on the west side of GA with the snow hole? Someone had said something about possible convection in the far southern gulf states. Haven't looked myself but would be interesting for a met to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Warm air advection. Even with such a cold start aloft this pattern has strong WAA, but thats what delivers the snow. Its a typical winter storm here, with 3 to 6" snow and followed by a crust of ice. I'm sure the amounts will waffle, and there could be areas with more and some with less, but its hard to predict, especially in this county. OK Thanks. I'm hoping we get those higher totals its about time something worked out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I thought that at this stage of the game we were no longer concerned what the euro says??? At this stage in the game usually the Euro will somewhat agree with the GFS and NAM which just shows there is a better chance. However the Euro can still be right even at this time frame...it just probably won't be if every other model disagrees with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grcjrsc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This feels so much like the January '88 storm, where CAE got about 6 inches of Sleet. The city was shut down for a week and we were out of school for 10 days. Spring Break was canceled and the school year extended a week to make up for all of the lost time. Walking around was even hard because it was like walking on lose ball bearings. CAE looks to be .59 all snow on the extracted data, but haven't got the #s for the mixed/ice part yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree for your area! You are on the pipeline form NEGA house. I would like to see those higher rates also. If we can get a good initial burst for a few hours, maybe more, the foundation will be made. Have not seen a good burst to start around this area in a good while. I also agree that the qpf has been under done in this area. so... With the initial rates here of at least 15:1 i'd take it and run!! That being said the GFS has had a hard time with qpf in this area, has been under done for the last 6 months so my hopes are starting to climb for the upstate and ne ga. Hopefully it'll catch ya'll too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Someone had said something about possible convection in the far southern gulf states. Haven't looked myself but would be interesting for a met to? Something happens between hour 42-48, strange, hard to believe that's convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GGEM seems to hold it's ground on more CAE snow than ice once again, the later frames for NC aren't all out but here you guys go, just refresh the prog to get new frames. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GGEM seems to hold it's ground on more CAE snow than ice once again, the later frames for NC aren't all out but here you guys go, just refresh the prog to get new frames. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 whats odd is some of the other forecasters around here keep using the RPM model which doesnt match up at all with the other model scenarios. Here in NW MS its only showing a couple inches. Stretches aross AL with same and explodes rates around ATL. NWS offices are all over the place with this one. LIT says 4-6 in their viewing area. JAN says 4-8 for our area. Its just all over the place at this point. Dont see any reason why it wouldnt be toward the higher end with the system very much dynamically strong by the time it passes the area. Your area doesn't have the cold air aloft when the best precip arrives, but you have higher rates , thought I don't know exactly where you are, but the areas just NW of Jackson to southern Arkansas and maybe northern MS are probably going to get clocked with a big one. I haven't studied the RH fields and temps extensively yet but will put a total update on my blog later that covers the southeast in more detail. Gotcha, so you aren't buying the heavier returns with the 850's so high? I'm just worried about .25 of ice with it I'm never good thought at figuring out QPF just by the maps. There's probably going to be a long period of freezing drizzle, but I doubt a .25" worth, following the best lift. Thats usually how our storms work that have a GA coastal. This time there still may be an unforeseen deformation zone at 700mb for our area, and to some extent there will be , but our temps aloft may just be too warm for snow by then, we'll have to wait til we get closer to see how the ending works out. This is still in development stage with the trailing second wave. That may or may not give something unexpected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS soundings look to support all snow at RDU through hour 60 at least, but certianly over to freezing rain by hour 66. Looks like around 0.25 inches of QPF by then so perhaps 2-3 inches of snow? Then probably a 0.25 inch that is freezing rain, as we dry out in the dendritic growth region and the warm nose aloft takes over. Not a historic storm, but a few inchs of snow with 0.25 inch of freezing rain is going to be a messy Monday night and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Geez, what happens in AL and on the west side of GA with the snow hole? The individual ensemble members might shed more light on this run when they come out. The lighter qpf makes this an interesting run. Is it that the model has better data or just a normal waffle of the model? I posted some frames several posts back that compared the trends over the past day. This one looks drier. The SLP's interaction w/ the feature to the northwest has increased or decreased amounts on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Warm air advection. Even with such a cold start aloft this pattern has strong WAA, but thats what delivers the snow. Its a typical winter storm here, with 3 to 6" snow and followed by a crust of ice. I'm sure the amounts will waffle, and there could be areas with more and some with less, but its hard to predict, especially in this county. IIRC - the big storms of the 70s and 80s all had that similar characteristic. moderate to heavy snow, with a crusting of ice on top...so i fully expect that this time. I agree for your area! You are on the pipeline form NEGA house. I would like to see those higher rates also. If we can get a good initial burst for a few hours, maybe more, the foundation will be made. Have not seen a good burst to start around this area in a good while. I also agree that the qpf has been under done in this area. so... bring it on, i am so ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well for N. Georgia, 12z GFS is not nearly the bomb 00z dropped on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that frame you posted is matching the nam's old bullseye around augusta/aiken just a tad further south. I dont want NC to get shafted on precip at all.. I just want the ice a lot less than what was forecast earlier around here... or anywhere actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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