burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This looks stronger then the 6z out to 24 hopefully this means another good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 um, dont you mean no reason to believe that we WONT get clocked? lol i am still finding this a bit unbelievable with the modeling from so far out and now we are less than two days away (36 hours in some places) and its looking good. we are fortunately 'running out of time' for a disaster to happen on the models - i just hope something doesnt happen late sunday to the storm to zap it away (just being a paranoid georgian where many times things can happen, like last jan 30). at least we should know once the radar starts filling in over ms and al. just about a day away from nowcast time Duh...LOL...thanks for catching that. I am terrible at typing. I always leave words out and usually don't catch it. Very frustrating at times. Oh well....:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yet again further north and stronger at 30...I like this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Duh...LOL...thanks for catching that. I am terrible at typing. I always leave words out and usually don't catch it. Very frustrating at times. Oh well....:snowman: i knew what you meant, and with the excitement building my typing is getting worse too. i just didnt want any panic from some of the posters lol. just looked at some of the atl stations RPM models, as well as james spann's. they are showing heavy snow for most of n ga overnight sunday into monday with the changeover here not until monday afternoon sometime. i know people disagree, but from what i have seen this year with the storms and models, the RPMs have been doing pretty well for n ga i am excited we are going to see snow, maybe sleet and ice - and if the heaviest isnt in mby, who cares! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 On the GFS ensembles, the northwest side of the precip shield is expanding IMO from 12z yesterday to 6z today. I couldn't use the exact time frames due to variations in timing of the storm, but these are close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the vort is much stronger, extremely imprssive through 39 hours, now in nw Miss. coming out of northern LA. Precip arrives faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Im liking our chances still for seeing at least some wintry wx here in CHS and the coastal areas. Local NWS is calling for snow late tomorrow night (after midnight) into monday morning then changing to snow/sleet mix then changing to rain. Should be fun to watch how it unfolds, a degree here or there can mean a BIG difference. Stormsfury, if you're reading this, post your thoughts I'm sure all us coastal people would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @42 precip shield is further north and east it's snowing in ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks similar to the 6z @45 just faster and precip shield is further north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i knew what you meant, and with the excitement building my typing is getting worse too. i just didnt want any panic from some of the posters lol. just looked at some of the atl stations RPM models, as well as james spann's. they are showing heavy snow for most of n ga overnight sunday into monday with the changeover here not until monday afternoon sometime. i know people disagree, but from what i have seen this year with the storms and models, the RPMs have been doing pretty well for n ga i am excited we are going to see snow, maybe sleet and ice - and if the heaviest isnt in mby, who cares! I tell you what I'm excited about besides the obvious..heavy snow. I'm absolutely thrilled at the fact we are going to get a coating of ice after the snow. Not only will that insulate our snow from the evil sun and melting, but combined with the snow and it glazing all the trees, it's going to be an absolutely amazing sight. My dream storm for as long as I can remember has always been a big snow followed by 0.10 to 0.25 of ice to make everything look even more beautiful...since I have never seen that combination... here we sit..on the cusp of it. Finally after all these years I get to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @42 precip shield is further north and east it's snowing in ATL this is trending better for us. The precip is faster and I love the looks of how strong the 5H is in Ms...plus its a heck of lot stronger almost the same as having an ULL cross over you, but not quite. The precip is faster to get here and most of TEnn. is in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 700 rh is exploding into the Tn valley from 36 to 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @48 heavy precip streatching from ATL just outside of GSP all snow....ATL is gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My latest discussion is up: http://www.sandhillswx.com/discussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I tell you what I'm excited about besides the obvious..heavy snow. I'm absolutely thrilled at the fact we are going to get a coating of ice after the snow. Not only will that insulate our snow from the evil sun and melting, but combined with the snow and it glazing all the trees, it's going to be an absolutely amazing sight. My dream storm for as long as I can remember has always been a big snow followed by 0.10 to 0.25 of ice to make everything look even more beautiful...since I have never seen that combination... here we sit..on the cusp of it. Finally after all these years I get to see it its all exciting!! the gfs has the snow into ne ga by 42! i have experienced that which is why i am excited, and it was were i am now. visiting my grandparents in feb. and we had 8" of snow and about .25 ice. the dogs couldnt walk on it, and we were stuck here for several days. unlike others, i have no problems seeing all types of frozen precip. give me a good snow and ice and that is an awesome storm, so i am right there with you!! i am now in a quandry...as with the temps it is conceivable, dare i say, i could be home bound for a couple of days...do i risk one more run to the store lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @51 heavy precip is running down the I-85 corridor...this is a wetter run for everyone in NC...but might not be as wet as the 6z lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I tell you what I'm excited about besides the obvious..heavy snow. I'm absolutely thrilled at the fact we are going to get a coating of ice after the snow. Not only will that insulate our snow from the evil sun and melting, but combined with the snow and it glazing all the trees, it's going to be an absolutely amazing sight. My dream storm for as long as I can remember has always been a big snow followed by 0.10 to 0.25 of ice to make everything look even more beautiful...since I have never seen that combination... here we sit..on the cusp of it. Finally after all these years I get to see it The GFS still has teh axis of higher rates on hour 48 extending down 85 from western SC to you through central Ga. I don't know how its final totals look but the fact theres good rates and temps so low is a good thing. Edit by 51 hours it looks like you may be changing to something besides snow. Precip is more expansive this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow @54 CAE north to CLT look to get slammed...all snow. Looking closer CAE looks to be more on the edge of Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 One thing I don't like about the gfs is the orientation of the precip. The last few runs take on more of a north to south/vertical orientation instead of the east to west deformation zone precip you see on the nam/ggem. It looks more like the euro in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Glad to see this trend on the 12 models. GA looks to get crushed (lookout style) and hte I-85 region into UPstate... Nice!! this is trending better for us. The precip is faster and I love the looks of how strong the 5H is in Ms...plus its a heck of lot stronger almost the same as having an ULL cross over you, but not quite. The precip is faster to get here and most of TEnn. is in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @51 heavy precip is running down the I-85 corridor...this is a wetter run for everyone in NC...but might not be as wet as the 6z lets see. the .50" is awfully close to us. So if you look at the trends and how the orientation of the axis is, theres going to be chaotic bubbles, overall this is still a big snow for GA and probably a good one here, I'm sure for us we'll be radarcasting it early Monday, and late tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @57 verbatim looks like a bad ice storm might be happening in CAE 850 line is on the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS still has teh axis of higher rates on hour 48 extending down 85 from western SC to you through central Ga. I don't know how its final totals look but the fact theres good rates and temps so low is a good thing. Edit by 51 hours it looks like you may be changing to something besides snow. Precip is more expansive this run I've been in the bullseye or close to it now for 2 days. That is pretty remarkable and it will be even more remarkable if it ends up being true. I'm of the belief the warm nose is chasing the back edge of the snow..so that by the time it gets here, the major stuff is over anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run might be a little drier here than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Verbatim this run looks less impressive for Atlanta for snow...lower QPF and much warmer 850's. I do think this run is having issues because if you look at the Omegas at times there is strong Omega in AL and then just 20 miles over there is a strong minus Omega. The Omega field should look like a more uniform area of lift rather that having strong plus's and minus's near each other like it is showing now. That probably explains the QPF issues in parts of AL and GA that this model is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 through hour 60, which is the changeover for CLT and 74 region approximately, theres been .50" CLT, and about .60" or so for the Upstate to most of western NC. Thats all snow, so not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Uggg @66 looks like it might be some icing issues for everyone in NC, those 850's jump almost to VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 through hour 60, which is the changeover for CLT and 74 region approximately, theres been .50" CLT, and about .60" or so for the Upstate to most of western NC. Thats all snow, so not bad. Looks like it might end as another little dusting of snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 CAE looks to be .59 all snow on the extracted data, but haven't got the #s for the mixed/ice part yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You can see the difference here between the nam/gfs with respect to the orientation. The nam's would imply a longer period of heavy snow/precip than the gfs over north Ga. Ggem agrees with the nam while the euro sort of agrees with the gfs. Who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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