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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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Uncharted territory for this deep south man. Since there is now likely to be some areas that see 6 inches of snow/sleet topped off by .25 zr, or dare I say perhaps even a bit more with lingering zr drizzle in the cad areas, for you weenies "up north" that has had this combo in the past, how would you say that compares to say an half inch of ice accrual? Time to gas up the old generator ya think?:scooter:

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Bingo. That is what the model says actually reaches the surface. If you look at the composite vs reflectivity images on the nam, you can see the nam (and the gfs) compensates for virga. This idea that if a model shows a half inch but 0.10 is lost to evaporation is a myth.

Well those of us who live in the Northern foothills (Mt. Airy) and Northwest Piedmont (Winston- SALEM) beg to differ. This is probably just our Micro Climate but still I know it happens. Remember this area is tucked up against the Mountains not only to the west, but to the North in some cases.

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i think most of the mtns are probably looking at 20:1 through most of the event. it will probably trail down to 10:1 by the time it winds down, but if these qpf amounts go up they are going to get blitzed.

same is true in most of the damming region early on, from CLT west, the easterly flow helps with the cold maintain and cooling. I think the ratios will be very good for the first 3/4 of the event in western Carolinas and Ga. Look at the 850 temps and how cold the surface pool is at the end.

post-38-0-55096700-1294499505.gif

post-38-0-18062000-1294499515.gif

post-38-0-90887200-1294499521.gif

Surface 60 hour:

post-38-0-45739500-1294499531.gif

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new NAM looks very favorable for the NC mountains. Perhaps some light freezing rain or sleet at the tail end of the event, but we should have plenty of snow beforehand. Probably on the order of at least 6", if you use a 10:1 ratio. Could be higher ratios given the cold profile.

This is OT, but they are getting crushed now. I just checked out the hwy 184 webcam in Banner Elk and was shocked. Thinking about heading up now with the family.

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i think most of the mtns are probably looking at 20:1 through most of the event. it will probably trail down to 10:1 by the time it winds down, but if these qpf amounts go up they are going to get blitzed.

Really, 20:1? That would be an easy 12" then, based on the NAM. And we do already have at least 4" down here, so we could have a snowpack of 16"!

BTW, still snowing rather heavily this morning. Picked up an inch in the last hour...

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Uncharted territory for this deep south man. Since there is now likely to be some areas that see 6 inches of snow/sleet topped off by .25 zr, or dare I say perhaps even a bit more with lingering zr drizzle in the cad areas, for you weenies "up north" that has had this combo in the past, how would you say that compares to say an half inch of ice accrual? Time to gas up the old generator ya think?:scooter:

I think also we are almost uncharted territory with respect to temperatures after this storm. The length of subfreezing temperatures is absolutely incredible. You can forget peachtress 40s the middle of the week if you belief the gfs, which I do. I'm not convinced we get above freezing tuesday with the lingering wedge but even if we do it will only be barely above freezing (33/34). After that comes a 4 day period where temps don't get out of the 20s for a lot of areas for highs. Not until next sunday does the gfs show us rising above freezing...low 40s. If we don't get above freezing tuesday, that will make 6 days below freezing for many areas. In fact, tomorrow many areas will only barely get above freezing too.

Not to mention the fact that lows are likely to be in the teens most of these mornings, especially areas with a snow pack. Bufkit from the 0z gfs showed lows near 0 in athens, anderson, gsp, etc friday morning. That's probably a bit extreme..as I noted earlier the gfs is often times too cold over snowpack regions. (You can always see it on it's temp maps where in the northern plains there are these isolated pockets that are 10 to 20 degrees colder than everywhere else). However, that is not to say it won't be colder over the snowpack, indeed I think single digits are a possibility thursday night/friday morning as a center of high pressure is nearly overhead allowing for good radiational cooling and calm winds.

The south simply is not used to this type of extending cold. I would suspect that we are going to see a ton of busted pipes, water mains, etc. So if folks have not insulated their pipes, put a light in the well house, etc..I strongly urge you do. If not you probably are going to be dealing with a mess.

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Well those of us who live in the Northern foothills (Mt. Airy) and Northwest Piedmont (Winston- SALEM) beg to differ. This is probably just our Micro Climate but still I know it happens. Remember this area is tucked up against the Mountains not only to the west, but to the North in some cases.

same problem here, only 10 times worse in the summer especially. This surface flow will be easterly northeast, not westerly so downslope isn't the issue on this storm. Lack of dynamics over NW NC might be, but the trend is for stronger, so don't give up.

My brother had a weekend trip to Boone this weekend and I told him 2 days ago to cancel so they did. Looks like the usual blizzard up there.

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same problem here, only 10 times worse in the summer especially. This surface flow will be easterly northeast, not westerly so downslope isn't the issue on this storm. Lack of dynamics over NW NC might be, but the trend is for stronger, so don't give up.

My brother had a weekend trip to Boone this weekend and I told him 2 days ago to cancel so they did. Looks like the usual blizzard up there.

You know when its this cloudy down here and echoes breaking containment, its putting on a show up there. I wish I could post this image for Powerstroke, Guy plowing up at Charlies in almost white out conditions/visibility.

http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_Beech_Charlies.htm

He just pulled off.

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Hi there. Could anyone tell me specifics on the 12z NAM please for Columbia (KCAE). How much snow to start then how much ice? Sleet or Freezing Rain? Was it a colder solution at all?

Thanks!

As already mentioned, don't ask this type of question in this thread. Asking how much for your backyard is not allowed in this thread. Use the general banter thread.

But to answer your question, quite a lot of snow..probably greater than 6 inches before a 0.25 of ice or so.

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I understand...but I am not asking about my backyard. I asked about the "entire" area. I am NOT the only one that asks this question. Stop chopping my head off. I just wanted a professional answer.

Thank you.

Asking how much for a city is considered IMBY. And I'm not chopping your head off...trust me you would know if I was..I was simply telling you. And you are lucky I just didn't delete the entire post like we normally do.

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Side Note: Looks like a nice snow burst ia about to hit the Greenville area (NC) also some echoes are streaking out of the mtns. So not out of the realm to get a flurry or snow shower in NC today. The northern mtns are racking it up again. Check out the webcams.

Saw a solid coating which covered the grass and driveway of about 15 minutes of heavy snow here earlier. I'm uploading a Youtube video right now which I'll post shortly. Now the sun's out and the snow is melting.

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Once again, there is that front running streak of moisture over mby. :wub:

Yep, I'm optimistic I will be in it too. The models have been very consistent in showing this and it's general placement.

I believe that is more like .4 inch equivalent. But still pretty good for 12Z, if true.

It should be noted more falls after 48 hours. You can tell by seeing the 700mb RH map on the right.

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Don't have much time to hang around until later tonight but all I can say is....GAME ON!

No reason to believe that N AL/GA/SC get clocked tomorrow night/Monday.

um, dont you mean no reason to believe that we WONT get clocked? lol

i am still finding this a bit unbelievable with the modeling from so far out and now we are less than two days away (36 hours in some places) and its looking good. we are fortunately 'running out of time' for a disaster to happen on the models - i just hope something doesnt happen late sunday to the storm to zap it away (just being a paranoid georgian where many times things can happen, like last jan 30). at least we should know once the radar starts filling in over ms and al.

just about a day away from nowcast time

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RGEM holds the 5H in tact, much stronger and you can see it. So the trend on short range models now is a much stronger s/w in Texas, and the degree and speed it becomes sheared toward the carolinas. I have never ever liked the RGEMs precip totals, but they do look generally correct, but maybe a little too low.

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