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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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It's going to be a battle between the very dry airmass to the north and this system across nc. I tend to think it's probably too dry in nc personally.

For those in columbia who have worried about not picking up your share of snow, this run loves you. Well over 6 inches this run before any changeover. Truth be told, the nam has augusta being the big snow winner this run with somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 to 10 inches before a changeover.

Yeah, that finger of precip you talked about helps them out a ton! It looked like that they get.50 in qpf before I even see a drop. With nice cold 850's. That would be huge!

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I really wish people would stop worrying so much about these model snow maps. They won't be right and rarely ever are..especially if there is a temp issue at the surface or in the mid levels...like what we are dealing with here.

I don't think anyone in the deep south should complain about a model showing 6-8" for them. Just saying. The NAM is overall a very solid run, and now that we're within 2 days or so it's probably one of the more accurate models.

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I don't think anyone in the deep south should complain about a model showing 6-8" for them. Just saying. The NAM is overall a very solid run, and now that we're within 2 days or so it's probably one of the more accurate models.

Exactly. If someone complains about "only" getting 6 to 8, they need to be slapped.

Have we gotten that spoiled that quickly? Any other time people would be having heartaches at those numbers.

Yeah, that finger of precip you talked about helps them out a ton! It looked like that they get.50 in qpf before I even see a drop. With nice cold 850's. That would be huge!

The gfs has also been showing this finger of snow to some degree as well. We won't know the exact placement of that band of course until it happens but I think it's safe to say it's going to be somewhere over north or central ga. Whoever is under that is likely to get several more inches than everyone else.

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It's going to be a battle between the very dry airmass to the north and this system across nc. I tend to think it's probably too dry in nc personally.

For those in columbia who have worried about not picking up your share of snow, this run loves you. Well over 6 inches this run before any changeover. Truth be told, the nam has augusta being the big snow winner this run with somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 to 10 inches before a changeover.

It will be interesting to see soundings. Verbatim our precip is sticking around good in NC, so we may eek out more then expected if the temp profile looks better then the NAM is showing.

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Had .41" last storm with 5". So We will gladly take .5

As long as the dry air does no eat it up

yes I'd say areas of GA that are going to get snow, are going to get a lot of it. A great storm for you guys, on about every model, as you won't have the issues that we might here in southern NC just east of the Apps. For us, we need the vort to hold together nicely and keep the omega flowing with the moisture to overcome the very dry air. I do like the fact this run has the surface low stronger in the Gulf and takes it across Fl. panhandle and off to the GA coast, we usually do well here and many of our best snows actaully had around .50" liquid equivalent, so I do like this really.

The coastal is there at 66 and still snowing here, actually a couple more inches. .so the lee trough , which is climo in GA coastals, will probably help us more.

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haven't seen much disco on ratios as of late...

anyone care to chime in on what the potentials are there, and why they might be higher/lower?

thanks!

Earlier bufkit runs of the nam/gfs were showing ratios of anywhere from 15:1 to 18:1 initially for just about everyone. Then as the mid level warm nose comes in, the ratios drop.

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for CLT to GSP region, the changeover is about hour 66, but by then there's been about .60" to .50" qpf, so thats a good snowfall. Also, we're having some good ratios, that would be a nice snowfall, then theres about .20" of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain on top, so this is really our typical Winter storm here. Not all snow, but a good amount and then a glaze on top. No matter which model you choose, our surface temps stay in the mid 20's for most of the storm.

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To me, it will be interesting to watch this system unfold for the NC and many SC areas where the temps never even thinks about approaching freezing. For many areas when the kick over to ZR occurs (where it does), no help from the normal latent heat release, or dragging the warm air aloft down as temps will remain solidly sub-freezing, not 31 or 32.

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for CLT to GSP region, the changeover is about hour 66, but by then there's been about .60" to .50" qpf, so thats a good snowfall. Also, we're having some good ratios, that would be a nice snowfall, then theres about .20" of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain on top, so this is really our typical Winter storm here. Not all snow, but a good amount and then a glaze on top. No matter which model you choose, our surface temps stay in the mid 20's for most of the storm.

Yea I have feeling this might overperform on us. If the NAM is right verbatim I have a hard time believing some really heavy bands don't get over one of us. I'll take the 6 inches though.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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I really like the idea of a finger of snow that extends out well ahead of the main system/precip shield like the nam has been showing the last few runs.

Yeah, I've had my eye on that as well. That streak of saturation at 700mb show up as well on the UKMET and to a lesser extent the GFS. Would really boost totals for the area under that streak to pick up an early inch or two, and to have the atmosphere moistened ahead of the main event.

If memory serves, wasn't that band over far N. Ga. much under forecast vs verification prior to our Christmas storm?

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It will be interesting to see soundings. Verbatim our precip is sticking around good in NC, so we may eek out more then expected if the temp profile looks better then the NAM is showing.

Nam composite reflectivity suggests freezing drizzle will hang on for most areas well into tuesday. That really could actually pile up. One thing is for sure, if one has 18 hours of freezing drizzle, everything will be coated and roads will be virtually impassable. With temps this cold, every drop will freeze on contact..won't be any dripping this time lol

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To me, it will be interesting to watch this system unfold for the NC and many SC areas where the temps never even thinks about approaching freezing. For many areas when the kick over to ZR occurs (where it does), no help from the normal latent heat release, or dragging the warm air aloft down as temps will remain solidly sub-freezing, not 31 or 32.

The scary part is that there will be a good amount of people not taking this storm seriously and many business saying business as usual. If this thing does better then progged ATL to CLT will be as disaster, some people may end up sleeping at work. Thank God I live only 10 minutes away from my job. I could walk home.

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Yes, and with temps well, well sub-freezing.

Nam composite reflectivity suggests freezing drizzle will hang on for most areas well into tuesday. That really could actually pile up. One thing is for sure, if one has 18 hours of freezing drizzle, everything will be coated and roads will be virtually impassable.

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for CLT to GSP region, the changeover is about hour 66, but by then there's been about .60" to .50" qpf, so thats a good snowfall. Also, we're having some good ratios, that would be a nice snowfall, then theres about .20" of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain on top, so this is really our typical Winter storm here. Not all snow, but a good amount and then a glaze on top. No matter which model you choose, our surface temps stay in the mid 20's for most of the storm.

It don't look like there will be enough moisture this far north to overcome the DRY air ? could that northern vort catch up with this and help with precip here in N.Foothills ? Looks like they may join up north of us for you know what :thumbsdown:

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not here yetpopcorn.gif

The problem for us is the High pressure is to strong and it is just drying us out. The QPF may show between .30 to.40 but its all virga , and the storm itself is dying and getting ready to hit the coast and make its run to the North. For our area looks like bad timing on the NAM.

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The problem for us is the High pressure is to strong and it is just drying us out. The QPF may show between .30 to.40 but its all virga , and the storm itself is dying and getting ready to hit the coast and make its run to the North. For our area looks like bad timing on the NAM.

There's no model that shows virga, it figures in how much is needed to moisten the air so what you see is what the model thinks has fallen.

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It will be interesting to see soundings. Verbatim our precip is sticking around good in NC, so we may eek out more then expected if the temp profile looks better then the NAM is showing.

Still end up with alot of .40-.50 in NC at 72 and its still not done. The thing I'm not trusting with the NAM is timing. It takes way longer with all the features as time progresses through its 84 hour runs. Ive noticed this since yesterday. The GFS and Sref are faster by a good bit in moving everything down the pieline. I'm feeling as confident as I have been with a 3-6 inch event. I think sleet will get alot more people in NC , but I beleive with a Florida panhandle to coastal GA track qpf will not be as big an issue. I can see fighting the virga at first with low DP's, but I like where things are at this moment. Perfect track,.

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I'm interested to see if we keep seeing a trend of the trailing s/w coming in behind it quicker. That would continue to increase the coverage over NC in the later stages. The bands on the nam from hour 66 to 78 are basically stationary over NC as the system off of the coast starts to organize and strengthen. If that happened quicker, it would be better. LOL this has many twists and turns to go, buckle up.

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The scary part is that there will be a good amount of people not taking this storm seriously and many business saying business as usual. If this thing does better then progged ATL to CLT will be as disaster, some people may end up sleeping at work. Thank God I live only 10 minutes away from my job. I could walk home.

Time at least for the CLT area couldn't be worse. I doesn't look to really start cranking until around commute on Monday morning so, like you said, a lot of people could end up either getting stuck on the road or at work. I'm usually at work by 7:15 so I can see myself being at work listen to the news saying stay off the roads. Then I'll try to get home and have to leave my car parked somewhere and walk the rest of the way home. Like, you I thankfully only work about 20 minutes from home so I wouldn't mind a nice hour or two walk home in a raging snow storm.

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Still end up with alot of .40-.50 in NC at 72 and its still not done. The thing I'm not trusting with the NAM is timing. It takes way longer with all the features as time progresses through its 84 hour runs. Ive noticed this since yesterday. The GFS and Sref are faster by a good bit in moving everything down the pieline. I'm feeling as confident as I have been with a 3-6 inch event. I think sleet will get alot more people in NC , but I beleive with a Florida panhandle to coastal GA track qpf will not be as big an issue. I can see fighting the virga at first with low DP's, but I like where things are at this moment. Perfect track,.

Agree totally. Great storm track and good amount of cold air in place, low sun angle. I will take that. Precip almost always arrives faster in NC and is usually an overperformer. Dryslots and warm noses are our issues most times.

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There's no model that shows virga, it figures in how much is needed to moisten the air so what you see is what the model thinks has fallen.

Bingo. That is what the model says actually reaches the surface. If you look at the composite vs reflectivity images on the nam, you can see the nam (and the gfs) compensates for virga. This idea that if a model shows a half inch but 0.10 is lost to evaporation is a myth.

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Well yesterday it showed us getting about 2 inches of snow, and you could see it on radar snowing and looking at the sky you could tell it. So we got a light dusting last night but no 2 inches. In our area Down sloping is the # 1 killer of precp. Lots of times moisture from clippers skips us and moves to the east from GSO to Raleigh.

There's no model that shows virga, it figures in how much is needed to moisten the air so what you see is what the model thinks has fallen.

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new NAM looks very favorable for the NC mountains. Perhaps some light freezing rain or sleet at the tail end of the event, but we should have plenty of snow beforehand. Probably on the order of at least 6", if you use a 10:1 ratio. Could be higher ratios given the cold profile.

That would be nice on the 4+ I already have. I could do without any freezing rain.

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new NAM looks very favorable for the NC mountains. Perhaps some light freezing rain or sleet at the tail end of the event, but we should have plenty of snow beforehand. Probably on the order of at least 6", if you use a 10:1 ratio. Could be higher ratios given the cold profile.

i think most of the mtns are probably looking at 20:1 through most of the event. it will probably trail down to 10:1 by the time it winds down, but if these qpf amounts go up they are going to get blitzed.

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