FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the vort is strongest yet I've seen on any models at 42. Almost due north flow ahead of it in Mss and Ala. Its also looking further north with precip shield. the 850's at 42 are still far south of ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @45 the NAM is further north but a little lighter then the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 42 the initial shortwave looks stronger...also the NAM is deeper/faster at 42 hours with the PAC NW shortwave...comparing with the 0Z run at the same time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Actually looking at it more looks like it's heavier on the north side but not with our low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1008 just se of NEW at 45. I don't recall it that strong at this hour. The precip is solid in Ala, Ga and southern Tenn. and nrn Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Kent Frantz Senior Lead Meteorologist for NWS-FFC says on TWC 5 inches for Atlanta and 5-7+ North or the City. (Lines up with the Tennessee Valley Bullseye theory of mine) and 1-3 for Macon with much more severe threat of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looking better then the 6z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3monkeymom Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know there was some discussion that the LP was likely to inch its way northward on the models as we got closer to the event, and that seems to be happening over the last few runs. I also know the models have had a hard time handling storms this winter, probably because of the unusual pattern we've been in. So my question is -- how have the actual storm tracks lately compared with model guidance 24-48 hours prior? Do they deviate slightly north, slightly south, or are they pretty much right on the money? Right now the NWS is calling for my part of LA to be under heavy sleet and possibly some ZR (yuck), but when I look at the maps, the forecast temp gradiants over the SE part of the state are crazy. If they're even 50 miles off with the placement of the low either way, then that changes everything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 48, the zero goes from Mac to BHM, and theres been about .50" from ATL west. through nrn Ala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know there was some discussion that the LP was likely to inch its way northward on the models as we got closer to the event, and that seems to be happening over the last few runs. I also know the models have had a hard time handling storms this winter, probably because of the unusual pattern we've been in. So my question is -- how have the actual storm tracks lately compared with model guidance 24-48 hours prior? Do they deviate slightly north, slightly south, or are they pretty much right on the money? Right now the NWS is calling for my part of LA to be under heavy sleet and possibly some ZR (yuck), but when I look at the maps, the forecast temp gradiants over the SE part of the state are crazy. If they're even 50 miles off with the placement of the low either way, then that changes everything for us. Overall they have done well, if anything maybe just a tad north. The problem comes in the QPF...it seems to fluctuate. It's anyone's guess really but over all it's been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @51 it looks stronger and the higher qpf is inching it's way into Southern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The s/w is actually weaker than 6z, but the leading vort being sheared off it a bit further north which is why the precip shield is further north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I really like the idea of a finger of snow that extends out well ahead of the main system/precip shield like the nam has been showing the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @54 it's trying to shunt the bulk of the moisture south of NC ...but over all still a good look, not buying that stuff doesn't hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @54 it's trying to shunt the bulk of the moisture south of NC ...but over all still a good look, not buying that stuff doesn't hit us. For the last as many runs as I can remember, there has been a precip cutoff near CLT right on the NC/SC border. Your snow triangle is putting up a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still all snow for areas east and north of a cedartown to macon line through hour 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like this run will give most of WNC around .50...so not that bad of a run but still with so much heavier precip just like 50-100 miles south you gotta like our chances of more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1012 low south of the FL panhandle at 54. This run still hits northern Ala, Ga and southern Tenn pretty hard and theres over .75" in BHM to near HSV, then curves back down just south of ATL and over to western central SC. For the Foothills and western piedmont of NC, the relative drying is still there through 54, so its still not maintaining the long trip, but its gettting very close. And through 57, the .75" has filled in more to inlcude ATL and nw GA almost to tn border. Still not a lot for CLT and just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At 30 -- and I'm venturing way beyond my expertise here -- it looks stronger but less amplified? Looks like the NW disturbance is more aggressive which seems to be a bad thing for our southern s/w. Good to hear its closed again at 33, though. Sometimes the looks can be deceiving on the ncep plots. Our shortwave is stronger, but yet looks less amplified just because the 5580m height line is further south and less amplified. I bet if you were able to plot lines in between 5580m and 5520m you would find a more amplified shortwave than depicted on the ncep plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Much better omega entering NC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Boy, that second disturbance over the Rockies sure does move in more aggressively on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .50 seems to be the magic level. At least on the past few NAM runs. I will take that here in WNC Looks like this run will give most of WNC around .50...so not that bad of a run but still with so much heavier precip just like 50-100 miles south you gotta like our chances of more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1012 low south of the FL panhandle at 54. This run still hits northern Ala, Ga and southern Tenn pretty hard and theres over .75" in BHM to near HSV, then curves back down just south of ATL and over to western central SC. For the Foothills and western piedmont of NC, the relative drying is still there through 54, so its still not maintaining the long trip, but its gettting very close. And through 57, the .75" has filled in more to inlcude ATL and nw GA almost to tn border. Still not a lot for CLT and just west. Looks like ATL is changing over right around 54. A nice 6" snow it looks like with maybe some sleet/ZR to follow. Very wet over in AL as well, the 0Z GFS might have been a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run is a step in the right direction for sure. yep. The good news is through 60 hours, we're still a snow profile most likely and the surface low is coastal Ga. I'd take that. What happens is the dry air in NC is so overwhelming probably and with dynamics aloft beginning to fizzle here, yet for each run the modesl still are stronger and stronger with the ULL so that is a good sign for us I think. Obviously this late stage, we're coming down to a radarcast on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For the last as many runs as I can remember, there has been a precip cutoff near CLT right on the NC/SC border. Your snow triangle is putting up a fight. Snow triangle has moved for this system and is now located over, well, the triangle. Looks like RDU is trying it's best to stay dry this run...precip just isn't making it inside 60 hours still dry. It might be too late per this run to see a flake at RDU, a mix/zr situation probably if we get any. It doesn't look like the Triangle is going to see any precip at all with the way the models are going. the way THIS model RUN is going you mean...I bet we see precip, brick. Edit: There it is, 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This isn't as good as before, much weaker in the North Georgia area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @54 it's trying to shunt the bulk of the moisture south of NC ...but over all still a good look, not buying that stuff doesn't hit us. It's going to be a battle between the very dry airmass to the north and this system across nc. I tend to think it's probably too dry in nc personally. For those in columbia who have worried about not picking up your share of snow, this run loves you. Well over 6 inches this run before any changeover. Truth be told, the nam has augusta being the big snow winner this run with somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 to 10 inches before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 SV snow map has the very north west tip of SC to around Gastonia in 4-8...sharp cutoff of 2-4 then close to nothing for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This isn't as good as before, much weaker in the North Georgia area I really wish people would stop worrying so much about these model snow maps. They won't be right and rarely ever are..especially if there is a temp issue at the surface or in the mid levels...like what we are dealing with here. That said, I think it should be noted the nam/gfs are trending down in their totals from the extreme totals they were forecasting. Nam still showing an area of extreme totals in the mid savannah river valley into central nc but certainly not as much across the north/upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like ATL is changing over right around 54. A nice 6" snow it looks like with maybe some sleet/ZR to follow. Very wet over in AL as well, the 0Z GFS might have been a fluke. yes I'd say areas of GA that are going to get snow, are going to get a lot of it. A great storm for you guys, on about every model, as you won't have the issues that we might here in southern NC just east of the Apps. For us, we need the vort to hold together nicely and keep the omega flowing with the moisture to overcome the very dry air. I do like the fact this run has the surface low stronger in the Gulf and takes it across Fl. panhandle and off to the GA coast, we usually do well here and many of our best snows actaully had around .50" liquid equivalent, so I do like this really. The coastal is there at 66 and still snowing here, actually a couple more inches. .so the lee trough , which is climo in GA coastals, will probably help us more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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