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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 3


MotoWeatherman

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I know there was some discussion that the LP was likely to inch its way northward on the models as we got closer to the event, and that seems to be happening over the last few runs. I also know the models have had a hard time handling storms this winter, probably because of the unusual pattern we've been in.

So my question is -- how have the actual storm tracks lately compared with model guidance 24-48 hours prior? Do they deviate slightly north, slightly south, or are they pretty much right on the money?

Right now the NWS is calling for my part of LA to be under heavy sleet and possibly some ZR (yuck), but when I look at the maps, the forecast temp gradiants over the SE part of the state are crazy. If they're even 50 miles off with the placement of the low either way, then that changes everything for us.

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I know there was some discussion that the LP was likely to inch its way northward on the models as we got closer to the event, and that seems to be happening over the last few runs. I also know the models have had a hard time handling storms this winter, probably because of the unusual pattern we've been in.

So my question is -- how have the actual storm tracks lately compared with model guidance 24-48 hours prior? Do they deviate slightly north, slightly south, or are they pretty much right on the money?

Right now the NWS is calling for my part of LA to be under heavy sleet and possibly some ZR (yuck), but when I look at the maps, the forecast temp gradiants over the SE part of the state are crazy. If they're even 50 miles off with the placement of the low either way, then that changes everything for us.

Overall they have done well, if anything maybe just a tad north. The problem comes in the QPF...it seems to fluctuate. It's anyone's guess really but over all it's been close.

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1012 low south of the FL panhandle at 54. This run still hits northern Ala, Ga and southern Tenn pretty hard and theres over .75" in BHM to near HSV, then curves back down just south of ATL and over to western central SC. For the Foothills and western piedmont of NC, the relative drying is still there through 54, so its still not maintaining the long trip, but its gettting very close. And through 57, the .75" has filled in more to inlcude ATL and nw GA almost to tn border. Still not a lot for CLT and just west.

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At 30 -- and I'm venturing way beyond my expertise here -- it looks stronger but less amplified? Looks like the NW disturbance is more aggressive which seems to be a bad thing for our southern s/w. Good to hear its closed again at 33, though.

Sometimes the looks can be deceiving on the ncep plots. Our shortwave is stronger, but yet looks less amplified just because the 5580m height line is further south and less amplified. I bet if you were able to plot lines in between 5580m and 5520m you would find a more amplified shortwave than depicted on the ncep plots.

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.50 seems to be the magic level. At least on the past few NAM runs.

I will take that here in WNC

Looks like this run will give most of WNC around .50...so not that bad of a run but still with so much heavier precip just like 50-100 miles south you gotta like our chances of more.

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1012 low south of the FL panhandle at 54. This run still hits northern Ala, Ga and southern Tenn pretty hard and theres over .75" in BHM to near HSV, then curves back down just south of ATL and over to western central SC. For the Foothills and western piedmont of NC, the relative drying is still there through 54, so its still not maintaining the long trip, but its gettting very close. And through 57, the .75" has filled in more to inlcude ATL and nw GA almost to tn border. Still not a lot for CLT and just west.

Looks like ATL is changing over right around 54. A nice 6" snow it looks like with maybe some sleet/ZR to follow. Very wet over in AL as well, the 0Z GFS might have been a fluke.

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This run is a step in the right direction for sure.

yep. The good news is through 60 hours, we're still a snow profile most likely and the surface low is coastal Ga. I'd take that. What happens is the dry air in NC is so overwhelming probably and with dynamics aloft beginning to fizzle here, yet for each run the modesl still are stronger and stronger with the ULL so that is a good sign for us I think. Obviously this late stage, we're coming down to a radarcast on Monday morning.

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For the last as many runs as I can remember, there has been a precip cutoff near CLT right on the NC/SC border. Your snow triangle is putting up a fight.

Snow triangle has moved for this system and is now located over, well, the triangle. Looks like RDU is trying it's best to stay dry this run...precip just isn't making it inside 60 hours still dry. It might be too late per this run to see a flake at RDU, a mix/zr situation probably if we get any.

It doesn't look like the Triangle is going to see any precip at all with the way the models are going.

the way THIS model RUN is going you mean...I bet we see precip, brick.

Edit: There it is, 66 hrs.

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@54 it's trying to shunt the bulk of the moisture south of NC gun_bandana.gif...but over all still a good look, not buying that stuff doesn't hit us.

It's going to be a battle between the very dry airmass to the north and this system across nc. I tend to think it's probably too dry in nc personally.

For those in columbia who have worried about not picking up your share of snow, this run loves you. Well over 6 inches this run before any changeover. Truth be told, the nam has augusta being the big snow winner this run with somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 to 10 inches before a changeover.

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This isn't as good as before, much weaker in the North Georgia area

I really wish people would stop worrying so much about these model snow maps. They won't be right and rarely ever are..especially if there is a temp issue at the surface or in the mid levels...like what we are dealing with here.

That said, I think it should be noted the nam/gfs are trending down in their totals from the extreme totals they were forecasting. Nam still showing an area of extreme totals in the mid savannah river valley into central nc but certainly not as much across the north/upstate.

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Looks like ATL is changing over right around 54. A nice 6" snow it looks like with maybe some sleet/ZR to follow. Very wet over in AL as well, the 0Z GFS might have been a fluke.

yes I'd say areas of GA that are going to get snow, are going to get a lot of it. A great storm for you guys, on about every model, as you won't have the issues that we might here in southern NC just east of the Apps. For us, we need the vort to hold together nicely and keep the omega flowing with the moisture to overcome the very dry air. I do like the fact this run has the surface low stronger in the Gulf and takes it across Fl. panhandle and off to the GA coast, we usually do well here and many of our best snows actaully had around .50" liquid equivalent, so I do like this really.

The coastal is there at 66 and still snowing here, actually a couple more inches. .so the lee trough , which is climo in GA coastals, will probably help us more.

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