CLTwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That layer of ZR always makes it fun, though very dangerous. Nothing like walking on the snow and hearing the pops of breaking ice. The interesting thing behind heavy snow and the .10 of freezing rain it actually entombs the snow, making it stick around for days. I remember in the 80's the sledding was amazing because of the big storms finishing off with a hint of glaze. Snow stayed for a week and roads...well miserable for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FOR CLT Snow starts (per o6 gfs) at 12Z until 21Z where the FR comes into play... yeah the GFS on the 18z, 0z, and now on the 6z has been consistent with showing about 5-6" of snow with .25+ of freezing rain on top of that. If this happens there will be a lot of power outages in the CLT area. Good thing my grocery store is within walking distance from my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Further looking at the 6z GFS it has highes for CLT around 25 with a low aroud 5 both Thursday and Friday of next week. That's some freaking cold air coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06z Nam gives CAE just a little more snow than the GFS...either way...this will be nasty. 110110/1000Z 52 08010KT 26.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.039|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1100Z 53 07010KT 26.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.9 0.087|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 54 05010KT 26.2F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 1.7 0.055|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1300Z 55 04011KT 25.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 1.7 0.083|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.09|| 0.09 0| 0|100 110110/1400Z 56 05011KT 25.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 1.7 0.031|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.12 0| 0|100 110110/1500Z 57 05011KT 26.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 1.8 0.024|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 110110/1600Z 58 05011KT 26.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 2.6 0.051|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 110110/1700Z 59 04011KT 26.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.1|| 3.7 0.091|| 0.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 110110/1800Z 60 04012KT 26.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.3|| 4.0 0.051|| 0.51 0.02|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.12 81| 19| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1900Z 61 04013KT 27.1F SNPL 5:1| 0.4|| 4.4 0.083|| 0.59 0.11|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.12 35| 65| 0 110110/2000Z 62 05014KT 27.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.118|| 0.71 0.00|| 0.13 0.12|| 0.24 0| 0|100 110110/2100Z 63 05014KT 29.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.071|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.13 0.07|| 0.32 0| 0|100 110110/2200Z 64 05013KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.063|| 0.85 0.00|| 0.13 0.07|| 0.38 0| 0|100 110110/2300Z 65 05013KT 30.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.039|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.13 0.04|| 0.43 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 66 05012KT 30.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.44 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0100Z 67 05013KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.45 0| 0|100 110111/0200Z 68 05013KT 30.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 0.92 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.46 0| 0|100 110111/0300Z 69 05013KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.47 0| 0|100 110111/0400Z 70 05013KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.48 0| 0|100 110111/0500Z 71 04013KT 30.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.95 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.49 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 72 04012KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.024|| 0.97 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.52 0| 0|100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110111/0700Z 73 04012KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 0.99 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.53 0| 0|100 110111/0800Z 74 04012KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 1.00 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.55 0| 0|100 110111/0900Z 75 03011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.57 0| 0|100 110111/1000Z 76 03011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 1.04 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.58 0| 0|100 110111/1100Z 77 02011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 1.05 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.60 0| 0|100 110111/1200Z 78 02011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 1.06 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.61 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/1300Z 79 02010KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.62 0| 0|100 110111/1400Z 80 01009KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.62 0| 0|100 110111/1500Z 81 36008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.004|| 1.08 0.00|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100 110111/1600Z 82 35008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.004|| 1.08 0.00|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100 110111/1700Z 83 33008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.004|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.64 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep, it's rare to see the SREF that much different from the NAM operational. So there will undoubtedly be more changes today. IMO the 12z and 18z runs today will finally have most of the data needed to start correctly getting a hold on this. Interesting that the SREF guidence is way further north with maximum precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 3z SREF.. Looks north with the qpf. .84 bullseye on Dawsons house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep, it's rare to see the SREF that much different from the NAM operational. So there will undoubtedly be more changes today. IMO the 12z and 18z runs today will finally have most of the data needed to start correctly getting a hold on this. Okay, so I've been looking at these the past few days... what the heck is it measuring and in what units? I thought it was QPF at first but then one of the members showed 100 (4 inches in millimeters) across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Love that slug with .5 - .75 into WNC and Southern NC.. 3z SREF.. Looks north with the qpf. .84 bullseye on Dawsons house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Okay, so I've been looking at these the past few days... what the heck is it measuring and in what units? I thought it was QPF at first but then one of the members showed 100 (4 inches in millimeters) across NC. That scale is hundredths of an inch. For example; 100 equals 1.00 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Buckeye can you post totals and ptype that latest runs show for cae. Thanks. 06z Nam gives CAE just a little more snow than the GFS...either way...this will be nasty. 110110/1000Z 52 08010KT 26.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.039|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1100Z 53 07010KT 26.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 0.9 0.087|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 54 05010KT 26.2F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 1.7 0.055|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1300Z 55 04011KT 25.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 1.7 0.083|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.09|| 0.09 0| 0|100 110110/1400Z 56 05011KT 25.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 1.7 0.031|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.12 0| 0|100 110110/1500Z 57 05011KT 26.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 1.8 0.024|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 110110/1600Z 58 05011KT 26.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 2.6 0.051|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 110110/1700Z 59 04011KT 26.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.1|| 3.7 0.091|| 0.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0 110110/1800Z 60 04012KT 26.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.3|| 4.0 0.051|| 0.51 0.02|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.12 81| 19| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1900Z 61 04013KT 27.1F SNPL 5:1| 0.4|| 4.4 0.083|| 0.59 0.11|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.12 35| 65| 0 110110/2000Z 62 05014KT 27.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.118|| 0.71 0.00|| 0.13 0.12|| 0.24 0| 0|100 110110/2100Z 63 05014KT 29.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.071|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.13 0.07|| 0.32 0| 0|100 110110/2200Z 64 05013KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.063|| 0.85 0.00|| 0.13 0.07|| 0.38 0| 0|100 110110/2300Z 65 05013KT 30.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.039|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.13 0.04|| 0.43 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 66 05012KT 30.2F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.44 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0100Z 67 05013KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.45 0| 0|100 110111/0200Z 68 05013KT 30.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 0.92 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.46 0| 0|100 110111/0300Z 69 05013KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.47 0| 0|100 110111/0400Z 70 05013KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.48 0| 0|100 110111/0500Z 71 04013KT 30.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 0.95 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.49 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 72 04012KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.024|| 0.97 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.52 0| 0|100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110111/0700Z 73 04012KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 0.99 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.53 0| 0|100 110111/0800Z 74 04012KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 1.00 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.55 0| 0|100 110111/0900Z 75 03011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.57 0| 0|100 110111/1000Z 76 03011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.016|| 1.04 0.00|| 0.13 0.02|| 0.58 0| 0|100 110111/1100Z 77 02011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 1.05 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.60 0| 0|100 110111/1200Z 78 02011KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.012|| 1.06 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.61 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/1300Z 79 02010KT 31.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.62 0| 0|100 110111/1400Z 80 01009KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.008|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.13 0.01|| 0.62 0| 0|100 110111/1500Z 81 36008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.004|| 1.08 0.00|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100 110111/1600Z 82 35008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.004|| 1.08 0.00|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100 110111/1700Z 83 33008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 4.4 0.004|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.64 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 SREF members have all been inching north each run. I liked Phil's explanation, and to me this still looks like a good regular 80's type storm for the Southeast. I'll work on a new update after the 12z NAM and GFS/RGEM. The euro looked too light for its own upper support. If you've noticed the ULL remnants work about to the same area, just stronger, each run, so this would favor southern Akansas, spreading northeast from there, as the heaviest qpf axis, which should be southern half of Tennessee, norhthern thirds of Mss, Ala and GA and the western Carolinas will the heaviest snow. Not to mention a bad icestorm just south of that area and ending as freezing drizzle for n. Ga and the western Carolinas, which may add up to a healthy glaze in its own right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Buckeye can you post totals and ptype that latest runs show for cae. Thanks. Looks like snow to frz rain to frz drizzle. Trip to the store today should be fun. And I actually need groceries. Not bread and milk. Awesome! Calling for snow to freezing rain here in Aiken. Scared the pants off everyone last night. Here I come Publix. Gonna be worse than Black Friday in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Love that slug with .5 - .75 into WNC and Southern NC.. REally jives well with my forecast where I expect the heaviest axis of Snow to be up north around Tenn Valley Areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like snow to frz rain to frz drizzle. Trip to the store today should be fun. And I actually need groceries. Not bread and milk. Awesome! Calling for snow to freezing rain here in Aiken. Scared the pants off everyone last night. Here I come Publix. Gonna be worse than Black Friday in there. Yet the high tomorrow according to them is going to be > 35. Not sure where they get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Buckeye can you post totals and ptype that latest runs show for cae. Thanks. The 06z NAM(what I posted) shows 4" snow followed by .64 ice. The 06z GFS shows a dusting of snow followed by .78 of ice The model runs the past few days have been showing more freezing rain than snow for the midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z NAM rolling -- big run, imo. At 12 hours, s/w about the same strength at 6z run, and held back a little southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z NAM rolling -- big run, imo. At 12 hours, s/w about the same strength at 6z run, and held back a little southwest. The bad news is that the strong low the NE is a bit stronger... not what we want for more amplification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing i've been noticing with the models is how they are trending towards more interaction with the trailing wave over the northwest. allan talked about this a couple days ago. that could act to strengthen this surface low over the atlantic later in the period. the mdoels are trending that way somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing i've been noticing with the models is how they are trending towards more interaction with the trailing wave over the northwest. allan talked about this a couple days ago. that could act to strengthen this surface low over the atlantic later in the period. the mdoels are trending that way somewhat. I saw that too, and once our snow is overwith, this will keep the western Carolinas and ne GA in the freezing drizzle for probably 12 hours or so at the end. Which would work out to some decent glazing I think for many, on top of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Intersting that the NAM has a closed low in west Central Texas at 24. I figured it would cut itself off again. thats going to be the vort remnants that all models have coming across west Central Miss and then up to northern Alabama and shears out over the western Carolinas. The stronger it is, the better, and also why there is more qpf under that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I saw that too, and once our snow is overwith, this will keep the western Carolinas and ne GA in the freezing drizzle for probably 12 hours or so at the end. Which would work out to some decent glazing I think for many, on top of the snow. And also give the MA and NE crew a storm as well. Their precip has been increasing over the past day with minimum precip beween north/central NC and Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I saw that too, and once our snow is overwith, this will keep the western Carolinas and ne GA in the freezing drizzle for probably 12 hours or so at the end. Which would work out to some decent glazing I think for many, on top of the snow. Ugh. I'd rather than 4" of snow than 8" with freezing rain on top. It certainly seems like a good bit of this will not be in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still nearly closed just northwest of Houston at 30. The northeast system is pulling out, really not much change except maybe the strength of the ULL/vort in Texas. Widespread .75 and 1.00" in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ugh. I'd rather than 4" of snow than 8" with freezing rain on top. It certainly seems like a good bit of this will not be in the form of snow. I think most of our lift comes before the changeover here, probably 90% of the qpf in your area esp, and west . Unless the models begin changing soon. Ooops at 33, the low closed off again in eastern Texas near LA border. The trend has been stronger with that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still nearly closed just northwest of Houston at 30. The northeast system is pulling out, really not much change except maybe the strength of the ULL/vort in Texas. Widespread .75 and 1.00" in Texas. Seems even less amplified and more progressive with the trough. Certainly not trending back to the 18z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At 30 -- and I'm venturing way beyond my expertise here -- it looks stronger but less amplified? Looks like the NW disturbance is more aggressive which seems to be a bad thing for our southern s/w. Good to hear its closed again at 33, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I just don't want it so strong that it develops some convective activity that cuts us off from the moisture, I've seen it happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FFC talking with TWC in few minutes if anyone interested.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 39, it ends up in the same rough area as most models, and thats in western Central Miss. Its stronger though, don' t know if the nam will start beefing up totals along it. Snow has begun in ATL and Huntsville at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That would be very bad. But it depends on your definition on Bad I'm ready I don't mind a good ice storm and the loss of power...yea...I'm a true weenie It's the loss of internet after the phone gives out that I'm not looking forward to..lol Hopefully we'll get more SN/IP than ZR...but it's not looking to good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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