kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Id assume the real good amounts are Nw of the low in the UP and into wisconsin? Upper MI and all of lower MI do decently, with the highest QPF further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upper MI and all of lower MI do decently, with the highest QPF further north. Not a big fan of the low track on that one, kind of far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not a big fan of the low track on that one, kind of far north. Yeah, but it tracks just east of Alpena as 995mb...not bad at all considering the previous tracks that were well to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, but it tracks just east of Alpena as 995mb...not bad at all considering the previous tracks that were well to the north. Yea if we stay cold enough, I have seen some storms deliver 6+ with this track. Bands usually just keep developing south of it. Definatly not the best scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, but it tracks just east of Alpena as 995mb...not bad at all considering the previous tracks that were well to the north. The strength is nice, though I'd like the system to be further South so we don't get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not hating the idea of that late January warmth. I don't want it. It just creates a mess here. I hate when my mat on the driveway turns to mush. Also, the road grader takes the mat off the street putting big chunks of snow at the end of my drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Look there's the possibility of a system packing a little more punch by d6/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GFS advertising a nice quick hitter during the 14-16th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GFS advertising a nice quick hitter during the 14-16th period. And another one barrelling down at 144 in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems a pretty active period of small-medium snows setting up shop for the medium range. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1st wave to far north for this area, 2nd wave on GFS has a nice swath of snow threw MO/IL, probably trend north. 3rd wave is up in the air..but offers ice here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GEM has a decent hit from MSP to Green Bay/Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GEM is pretty similiar to the GFS..at 144 looks an area of vort energy in the NW that will dive SE because heights over the east are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tell me if I am reading them right but it looks like the 12z GFS ensemble mean was COLD...compared to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tell me if I am reading them right but it looks like the 12z GFS ensemble mean was COLD...compared to the OP. 0z OP GFS was an outlier. Haven't seen the 12z ensembles yet myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z GEM has a decent hit from MSP to Green Bay/Milwaukee. for fun i ran the extracted qpf from the ggem for the clipper ABR 0.12 DLH 0.26 FSD 0.02 GFK 0.25 GRB 0.26 MSN 0.17 MSP 0.23 ORD 0.14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd bet models begin to show a significant storm next week coming up north somewhere west of the apps. Odds favor a track thru Ohio with a big heads up to chicago/harry/hoosier area. That's my gut call, not what im hoping for...obviously. After that a brief shot of cold then a nationwide blowtorch. there ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z Euro way north the 14-15th system. SLP crosses north of MQT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Euro going with a trailer for the 15-16th. STL, IND, CMH, TOL looking good for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z Euro way north the 14-15th system. SLP crosses north of MQT. good news i dont want any followup system sqaushed by cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 good news i dont want any followup system sqaushed by cold I agree. 12z Euro trying really hard from 150-168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree. 12z Euro trying really hard from 150-168. yeah I just saw that, hope we can get a storm out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 does look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree. 12z Euro trying really hard from 150-168. 6z and 12z GFS tried as well, i'm not sure we get over the hump with this one, but it's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CMH special on the 12z Euro. Probably something on the order of 0.50-1.00" QPF...maybe more. Long drawn out storm that begins at hour 144 and still going at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CMH special on the 12z Euro. Probably something on the order of 0.50-1.00" QPF...maybe more. Long drawn out storm that begins at hour 144 and still going at 192. So it pretty much forms in the OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CMH special on the 12z Euro. Probably something on the order of 0.50-1.00" QPF...maybe more. Long drawn out storm that begins at hour 144 and still going at 192. Based on the positioning and amplitude of the H5 trough at 168, am I right to suspect it ends up S/E of me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here is what the euro shows from hr 162 to 192 HR 162: Sub 1004 MB LOW near Miss. HR 168: Sub 1000 MB LOW in NW Alabama. HR 174: Sub 1000 MB LOW in C. Tenn. HR 180: Sub 1000 MB LOW in W. Virg maybe? Hard to tell HR 186: Sub 996 MB LOW in E. Virg. HR 192: Sub 996 MB LOW off the coast (looks like a big east coast storm again) Ohio gets mod-heavy snow at 186, lt-mod at 180 and 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So it pretty much forms in the OV? Main system goes from SE TX up through SE KY before re-developing off the coast at 180. There's a lot going on (multiple systems) with the Euro, but STL picks up aprox 0.50-0.75" total through 192 (entire run), which should be all snow. Based on the positioning and amplitude of the H5 trough at 168, am I right to suspect it ends up S/E of me? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Based on the positioning and amplitude of the H5 trough at 168, am I right to suspect it ends up S/E of me? its pretty much right along the border SW - NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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