A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ensembles disagree with you as does the long range models. But keep downplaying... quoted for future bump trolling and/or praise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He is right, in other words, there will be another way for the storm to cancel itself. I might have to coin Patrick7032 "Storm Cancel Pat" for his early storm thread, haha. No no, don't you go getting all negative on me. Although to be truthful, I'm not hyped about the potential here either. Regardless, the blocking does seem to be relaxing a bit...but of course that is only one part of the equation. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He is right, in other words, there will be another way for the storm to cancel itself. I might have to coin Patrick7032 "Storm Cancel Pat" for his early storm thread, haha. but then you become 'Arctic Outbreak Cancel Baro"...for the pinned thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He is right, in other words, there will be another way for the storm to cancel itself. I might have to coin Patrick7032 "Storm Cancel Pat" for his early storm thread, haha. I don't think this one is going to be a 0, like I said earlier, there is just way too much energy being thrown at the West Coast and a strong baroclinic zone that is forecasted to be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No no, don't you go getting all negative on me. Although to be truthful, I'm not hyped about the potential here either. Regardless, the blocking does seem to be relaxing a bit...but of course that is only one part of the equation. We'll see. Yeah no I agree, a nice pattern change even though it won't pan out as we thought it may. but then you become 'Arctic Outbreak Cancel Baro"...for the pinned thread.... Haha I know--it was the kiss of death. For real though, epic outbreak fail. Thankfully I kept my hype for this storm low as well, but some of those 7-9 day GFS/ECM runs were looking good, and I knew the potential. In my opinion potential not realized is a big downer. At least the nasty -NAO block will be gone for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah no I agree, a nice pattern change even though it won't pan out as we thought it may. Haha I know--it was the kiss of death. For real though, epic outbreak fail. Thankfully I kept my hype for this storm low as well, but some of those 7-9 day GFS/ECM runs were looking good, and I knew the potential. In my opinion potential not realized is a big downer. At least the nasty -NAO block will be gone for a bit. i gotta admit i was kinda excited at the thought of a day or two of historic cold similar to jan '94 around here. Oh well...that probably would have crushed any kind of snow threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think this one is going to be a 0, like I said earlier, there is just way too much energy being thrown at the West Coast and a strong baroclinic zone that is forecasted to be in place. Yeah I was just being pessimistic like usual. I am disciplining myself for getting too excited about a storm threat too early twice in a row now. First the Plains New Years Storm of the Century fail, then this combined with the Arctic outbreak fail. Pessimism combined with realism is the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I was just being pessimistic like usual. I am disciplining myself for getting too excited about a storm threat too early twice in a row now. First the Plains New Years Storm of the Century fail, then this combined with the Arctic outbreak fail. Pessimism combined with realism is the best way to go. Dude its ok to get excited, I'd rather be excited about every event and have half of them miss me, then to be meh about them and have them hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 OT....but had to show you guys this..from the 12z NAM...I seriously want to go to the east coast just to sit under one of these. so jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS says wash, rinse, repeat on the boring wave train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ive been pretty impressed by the consistency displayed by the GFS wrt this storm. There have been minor run to run differences, but no wild 500 miles shifts thus far. And it's true this doesn't look like a monster storm, but verbatim I'd say it has the potential for 2-4/3-5 type snows, especially NE of a GRB to CMH line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS says wash, rinse, repeat on the boring wave train. GFS keeps showing that tight baroclinic zone across the northern tier of the US next week. If that's the case, you gotta like the chances of something big developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS keeps showing that tight baroclinic zone across the northern tier of the US next week. If that's the case, you gotta like the chances of something big developing. I like something similar to what's going down today/tomorrow, only a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like something similar to what's going down today/tomorrow, only a little further north. Meh, I figure it'll be bigger than that even. I've been negative enough this winter. Time to mix it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 can i lock in the gfs? clipper event this weekend, app runner early next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS says wash, rinse, repeat on the boring wave train. I will take it. Keep building up a nice snowpack. Our bomb is coming in February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 can i lock in the gfs? clipper event this weekend, app runner early next week lol If big time high latitude blocking returns, the next couple of weeks could very well be the most active part of the winter. So let's all enjoy it while we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will take it. Keep building up a nice snowpack. Our bomb is coming in February or March. I hope so. I would think the se ridge comes into play sometime soon and it will be a battle with some blocking with a se ridge. In between hopefully a bomb delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GGEM (probably the least accurate model in the 100-140 hour timeframe) has a very strong clipper. Looks like it tries to tap the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GGEM (probably the least accurate model in the 100-140 hour timeframe) has a very strong clipper. Looks like it tries to tap the gulf. I like how the models have been slowly nudging this storm south over time. I was never a big fan of my snow prospects when it was being depicted as a 980 over Lk Nipigon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like how the models have been slowly nudging this storm south over time. I was never a big fan of my snow prospects when it was being depicted as a 980 over Lk Nipigon. Yea the changes have been pretty big. Went from a 995 low going up into canada to a clipper that could come further south and bring moisture north. Even though it showed snow Se of the low when it went into cananda, you never feel good being in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 decent clipperish agreement by 120, also a good signal for another large EC storm not far beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like how the models have been slowly nudging this storm south over time. I was never a big fan of my snow prospects when it was being depicted as a 980 over Lk Nipigon. personally id rather the event be weak and pass to our NW and a secondary storm form along the BZ from the SW. if we see a strong clipper, no chance of that and any followup storm will be along the coast or OTS. basically, im rooting for a gradient pattern with cold air lurking, but not dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 personally id rather the event be weak and pass to our NW and a secondary storm form along the BZ from the SW. if we see a strong clipper, no chance of that and any followup storm will be along the coast or OTS. basically, im rooting for a gradient pattern with cold air lurking, but not dominating. I'm liking these thoughts, unfortunately i think we see the clipper trend stronger and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FYI, Euro gets down to about 1000-1004 MB on the clipper in N. WI. HR 132 0z it got down to about 1012 and it was a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 HR 126 it's between 996-1000 in N. MI it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS showing 0.70" liquid for ORD thats all snow over then next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z GFS showing 0.70" liquid for ORD thats all snow over then next week. I wouldn't mind nickle and diming my way to a 12" snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The GGEM (probably the least accurate model in the 100-140 hour timeframe) has a very strong clipper. Looks like it tries to tap the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wouldn't mind nickle and diming my way to a 12" snowpack. who wouldn't? lol that would be nice to get back to an 8" snowpack like i had before that ONE warm day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.