Guru Of Reason Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like an icing/mixing threat for S. Mo - S. IL on south with a band of snow just to the north. This blocking/ridge configuration screams mT over cA overlay, and is a similar PAC setup to the Jan '09 ice storm, albeit missing the positive tilt western trough, which means much shorter duration. And then after that, hardcore cold. Maybe the coldest since the Feb 1996 cold wave here in STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The threat for the big storm in this time range is basically gone now. It looks like some regions may get some weak clipper type action, but certainly nothing big. So far I'm far from impressed with this month as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One hot mess right now... Still looks like 3-5 more for southern Ohio based on the runs. I think we will see alot of changes in the coming days. I am confident this system will be cold enough for snow but the cold cold over do itself and smash this puppy south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The threat for the big storm in this time range is basically gone now. It looks like some regions may get some weak clipper type action, but certainly nothing big. So far I'm far from impressed with this month as a whole. It's there, just way too far south. Even for me. However there's plenty of time. Hopefully I can cash in on one of these with a huge blockbuster event and then we can shift the snowier pattern further up north for a while so you all can get some some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have a hard time buying no storm with the amount of energy coming ashore and the amount of cold air dumping down into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0Z GGEM caved from the 12Z run..weak piece of crap like the GFS 120 & 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have a hard time buying no storm with the amount of energy coming ashore and the amount of cold air dumping down into the region. Wit this being the big Arctic Blaster I am on that side. With the amount of bitter air and energy running around with modified polar and even some sub tropical far south a potential massive storm will affect some areas. Where it will be I do not know but I am inclined to agree that this should be bigger than advertised. Since a relaxation could be coming 5 days after that storm I tend to favor a bigger, stronger storm. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I have a hard time buying no storm with the amount of energy coming ashore and the amount of cold air dumping down into the region. Yeah that's how I normally feel too, but it seems that lately we're getting multiple pieces of shortwave energy as opposed to a single strong one. It's definitely something to keep an eye on with the amount of cold air entering the CONUS. You'd think that the very impressive baroclinic zone would dish out something good, but the trend by the global models isn't looking so hot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The threat for the big storm in this time range is basically gone now. It looks like some regions may get some weak clipper type action, but certainly nothing big. So far I'm far from impressed with this month as a whole. Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah that's how I normally feel too, but it seems that lately we're getting multiple pieces of shortwave energy as opposed to a single strong one. It's definitely something to keep an eye on with the amount of cold air entering the CONUS. You'd think that the very impressive baroclinic zone would dish out something good, but the trend by the global models isn't looking so hot right now. I think we should give this one time to brew, it has potential, and like you mentioned the strength of the baroclinic zone forecasted is very strong and impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Winter. If things fall into place, Detroit could very easily be above normal to date in the snowfall department by next week at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice storm brewing on the 0z euro at hr 162. LOW in N. TX maybe but it looks like it may phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what does the euro have for QPF late week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Most of IL (S/C) probably end up with nearly .4-.5 QPF. Sub 1008 MB LOW from TX to W. ARK to S. MO to S/C. IL to C. IND then it weakens pretty good. It tried to phase but never "completley" phased. Trough was really broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's for the HR 150-180 timeframe btw. The one for late next week is a weak piece of crap that hardly gives areas .1 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thanks, looking at 850 temps..we are sleet or ZR to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Most of IL (S/C) probably end up with nearly .4-.5 QPF. Sub 1008 MB LOW from TX to W. ARK to S. MO to S/C. IL to C. IND then it weakens pretty good. It tried to phase but never "completley" phased. Trough was really broad. Yeah I don't buy it weakening as it lifts NE, there is no reason for it to weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Has another storm at the HR 216 period. Took the low through TN and E. OH pretty much. Got down to 1000 mb at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmmm.. if trends continue, it looks like tomorrow's storm will look like a cupcake compared to this storm. Snow amounts + the temperatures behind it are going to be quite fun for this area... hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I don't buy it weakening as it lifts NE, there is no reason for it to weaken seasonal trends FTL, if something is going to cut northeast, it’s going to do it east (coastal) or west (plains) of the lakes, persistent lakes blocking isn’t going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmmm.. if trends continue, it looks like tomorrow's storm will look like a cupcake compared to this storm. Snow amounts + the temperatures behind it are going to be quite fun for this area... hopefully. One storm cancel in our region is a potential for a big hit in another part of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 seasonal trends FTL, if something is going to cut northeast, it’s going to do it east (coastal) or west (plains) of the lakes, persistent lakes blocking isn’t going anywhere. Have to stay positive. A low doesnt always transfer when it takes a ohio valley track. It's doing it with the 10-12 storm because there is a low off the coast. I really like the potential. The block is weakening, which is allowing the 10-12 OV low to move towards the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Have to stay positive. A low doesnt always transfer when it takes a ohio valley track. It's doing it with the 10-12 storm because there is a low off the coast. I really like the potential. The block is weakening, which is allowing the 10-12 OV low to move towards the great lakes. Don't hold your breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't hold your breath. He's right though. NAO popping above neutral, AO relaxing. The pattern we're entering is not exactly the same we've been in for the past several weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't hold your breath. I understand seasonal trends and all but why are people so negative. Just because we have been in this pattern for about a month now doesn't mean it can't change in a moment. The models showed almost nothing 3-4 days ago with this ohio valley low and now places in ohio and far southern michigan have a decent shot at 3-6 inches or more. Chicago detroit indy cleveland are due for a big daddy and if phasing occurs that could happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He's right though. NAO popping above neutral, AO relaxing. The pattern we're entering is not exactly the same we've been in for the past several weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif Quick question regarding those graphs. Are the different red lines different model depictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He's right though. NAO popping above neutral, AO relaxing. The pattern we're entering is not exactly the same we've been in for the past several weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif Popping is right, i still say cold supressed and progressive suckage prevails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Quick question regarding those graphs. Are the different red lines different model depictions? Yes. They're the GFS ensemble individual forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Popping is right, i still say cold supressed and progressive suckage prevails. Ensembles disagree with you as does the long range models. But keep downplaying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't hold your breath. He's right though. NAO popping above neutral, AO relaxing. The pattern we're entering is not exactly the same we've been in for the past several weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif He is right, in other words, there will be another way for the storm to cancel itself. I might have to coin Patrick7032 "Storm Cancel Pat" for his early storm thread, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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