Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not getting hung up on the Euro qpf for the first system, especially since most other models are juicier. I am not either, the frustrating thing to this however is ever since it was updated the Euro has been Eurotrash when it was the King hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am not either, the frustrating thing to this however is ever since it was updated the Euro has been Eurotrash when it was the King hands down. i think its been ok it still has it's weakness with hanging energy back but i think its new thing is to be to late/cold/progressive like the gfs it has seemed to miss some amplification that it usually nails similar to the gfs upgrades how its cold and progressive most of the time. I'm sure someone will show the h5 patterns and say its ok but with big events it has been lacking case in point the last east coast storm that is usually the euro's wheelhouse and jumped ship mid range only to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Btw as for ensembles the GFS ensembles are almost all more amped up on this one than the operational, which raises an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If you want to see a waste of cold air, I give you exhibit A. the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow 06Z GFS looks like a pile of junk. That would likely be the worst case scenario right there with two very weak low amplitude waves ahead of the Canadian vortex and a missed phase of the migratory wave. Unfortunately the ECMWF is also much weaker and misses the phase. Missed phase fail: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is a general look at the pattern as we see it now. All the global models are relatively similar at this point. The Canadian vortex (blue arrow) is where all the cold air is with this system, and for a good arctic blast and a strong storm, it needs a sufficiently strong S/W to phase with that vortex and incite strong cold air advection. The green trough axis is a wedge of cold air sliding underneath the huge -EPO/Alaskan ridge. The low amplitude wave (yellow box) is the main low amplitude wave disturbance which will link up with the Canadian vortex and eject into the plains. How strong and amplified that baroclinic wave is will determine potential for the storm. The big wildcard is the weak circled (red) migratory wave. Earlier runs were at least partially phasing that low with the main low amplitude baroclinic wave (yellow) which resulted in increased amplification and a stronger "trigger" to incite strong and deep cold air advection into the high plains and eventually northern plains. Furthermore, the main PV was much stronger and had much more potential for amplification/development. Without that, the low level thermal gradient and potential energy is much weaker and the resulting storm will be weak. There is still a chance the models don't have this feature modeled well, but the complete reversal by both the ECM/GFS regarding the phase is not a good trend at this stage (100-130 hours out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey Baro, this was from GRR, Very Interesting: LONG TERM...(426 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011)(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) THE MODELS DID NOT FORECAST OR INITIALIZE THE STRONG PACIFIC STORM NORTHEAST OF HI. THIS SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE MODELS WERE FORECASTING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THAT IMPACTS FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. IN THE THU TO FRI TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT THE MODELS WILL FEATURE LARGER THAN NORMAL CHANGES AS THIS STORM MOVES INTO CA AND WE BEGIN TO SAMPLE IT BETTER. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is a general look at the pattern as we see it now. All the global models are relatively similar at this point. The Canadian vortex (blue arrow) is where all the cold air is with this system, and for a good arctic blast and a strong storm, it needs a sufficiently strong S/W to phase with that vortex and incite strong cold air advection. The green trough axis is a wedge of cold air sliding underneath the huge -EPO/Alaskan ridge. The low amplitude wave (yellow box) is the main low amplitude wave disturbance which will link up with the Canadian vortex and eject into the plains. How strong and amplified that baroclinic wave is will determine potential for the storm. The big wildcard is the weak circled (red) migratory wave. Earlier runs were at least partially phasing that low with the main low amplitude baroclinic wave (yellow) which resulted in increased amplification and a stronger "trigger" to incite strong and deep cold air advection into the high plains and eventually northern plains. Furthermore, the main PV was much stronger and had much more potential for amplification/development. Without that, the low level thermal gradient and potential energy is much weaker and the resulting storm will be weak. There is still a chance the models don't have this feature modeled well, but the complete reversal by both the ECM/GFS regarding the phase is not a good trend at this stage (100-130 hours out). MPX calling for a chance of flurries fri night/sat as the system moves through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey Baro, this was from GRR, Very Interesting: http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Interesting, thanks. The interactions out in the Pacific are complex, and there is no doubt time for the models to correct the wave pattern out there. I definitely don't disagree with their general thoughts, and there is time for things to change a lot as early errors will of course feedback onto the remainder of the forecast and grow rapidly with time. We should know much better within the next 48 hours as the main migratory low cuts off from the flow. Here is the said storm they refer to NE of Hawaii: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow 06Z GFS looks like a pile of junk. That would likely be the worst case scenario right there with two very weak low amplitude waves ahead of the Canadian vortex and a missed phase of the migratory wave. Unfortunately the ECMWF is also much weaker and misses the phase. Missed phase fail: Man I dont remember seeing all those fails around that shortwave when I looked, maybe I need some glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If you want to see a waste of cold air, I give you exhibit A. the 06z GFS I didnt think it was THAT bad. #1) 6+z+GFS= #2) even still, in the next week it still gives DTW 0.24" with the Tuesday snowstorm and 0.22" with the Saturday snowstorm, both of which will be somewhat decent ratio snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Man I dont remember seeing all those fails around that shortwave when I looked, maybe I need some glasses Haha, when that migratory wave missed the phase on the 06Z GFS it knew it failed and chastised itself with a bunch of fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DTX UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS. IN TYPICAL FASHION...THE MODELS ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE JET ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL ROUND THE TROUGH AND SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO TUESDAY. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE PHASED AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH EVEN CLOSES OFF IN THE CLEVELAND VICINITY BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FAVORS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TRACKS UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS TREND...SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TUESDAY FORECAST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE IN THE 280-290K LAYER ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REACH AS HIGH AS 2 G/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH ARE CLOSER TO JUST 1 G/KG. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS DEFORMATION INCREASES ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. WITH MOISTURE LOOKING LIKE A LIMITING FACTOR...HAVE MADE SOME CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST RAISING MOST AREAS TO 60 PERCENT POPS WITH 1-2.5 INCHES OF SNOW(HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH). IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING TREND THEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. THE CURRENT TIMING DOES BRING SNOW IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH MAY HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. This should be in the other thread. This is regarding the storm for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This should be in the other thread. This is regarding the storm for early next week. Wow...it would help if I learned to READ lol. I was wondering why stebo said it was so bad. Will move it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It is becoming clear the necessary phasing may not happen. This storm is turning into a big pile of junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12Z GGEM coming in stronger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol, 12z GFS is a pretty blah with this one. Does have a chaser, that looks like it could drop some snow...albeit nothing earth shattering. Long ways to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12Z GGEM looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z Euro, through 144, looks pretty blah. A total opposite from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z Euro, through 144, looks pretty blah. A total opposite from the GGEM. 12Z ukie like the GGEM at 144 but too bad it's those two models showing anything worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z Euro, through 144, looks pretty blah. A total opposite from the GGEM. Storm cancel if the GFS/ECM verify. CMC misses the phase too yet it undergoes some funky looking amplification--it almost looks like magic from 108-138. Not buying the CMC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12Z ukie like the GGEM at 144 but too bad it's those two models showing anything worth mentioning. Yeah, not like the Euro is always the be all end all, but not good in conjunction with the GFS. Euro cooking up something post 168 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the fact that we are trending towards not seeing much of an event in the eastern lakes tells me that the cold really wont be anything substantial over here....in fact, it will probably just be slightly below normal here, if that. perhaps it will come later behind another event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like the split flow. at 144 the CMC is def pushing snow into my area the Euro looks like snow here from a southern vort as well as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The models are all over the place with this thing. Really not sure what to think at this point. Guess we'll see what the next few days bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS + ECM = game over. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS + ECM = game over. Game over. If this trend continues maybe I should change my screen to STORMKILLER....ahhh still plenty of time to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Kind of glancing at it....not interested any more Will wait and see, but it looks like a less than impressive mess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 7 days out!! No way storm cancel. Same thing happened with storm 1 but look at it now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like an icing/mixing threat for S. Mo - S. IL on south with a band of snow just to the north. This blocking/ridge configuration screams mT over cA overlay, and is a similar PAC setup to the Jan '09 ice storm, albeit missing the positive tilt western trough, which means much shorter duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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