A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS looks like it's starting the slow trends warmer and stronger. from potential artic outbreak to rain storm in the making, fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS looks like it's starting the slow trends warmer and stronger. Yeah it's definitely warmer ahead of the storm at noon the 14th. Freezing line well into Missouri compared to down in Arkansas on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah it's definitely warmer ahead of the storm at noon the 14th. Freezing line well into Missouri compared to down in Arkansas on the 6z. Of course. That's exactly why I'm not even paying much attention to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z GFS looks like it's starting the slow trends warmer and stronger. from potential artic outbreak to rain storm in the making, fail. What a big, flat pile that height field is on the 12Z GFS 500 hpa. Also, everytime I see that picture I think it is your son or something Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Basically all of Illinois above freezing at 168 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well, we'll write this one off right now then. I am so tired of rain in the middle of winter. The NYE mess was depressing. I am not going to sit and watch a storm, hanging on the to the slim hope that it might remain cold enough to get some snow out of it. Done. Prediction was for above normal precip for this region (GL).... too bad most of it appears to want to fall as rain..... I'll check again Wed to see if anything changes. GFS will probably have us with highs in the 50's by then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Way too early to be sweating too many details, but the 06Z GFS was close to being epic if it was able to phase that migratory S/W off the West Coast. Honestly I like the looks of the 06Z GFS better than the 0Z and such a solution on its own would be a heck of an arctic front. If it linked up with that wave, the eventual trough ejecting into the plains would be more amplified with a sharper leading edge S/W. Ya that run had way more potential, i'm really liking the chances of someone in the upper midwest seeing some wicked weather conditions in the 7-10 day time frame. The 00z euro was crazy with back to back blizzards in the upper midwest, if the lead S/w can't get the job done it seems like major amplification may occur with the next S/W entering behind it. I'd almost rather have a weaker first event and stronger 2nd event because if we do get a phase with the first event it would most likely amplify the trough so much that the 2nd wave ends up as a non event for most of us. We'll have to see how to models trend over the next few days on how the pv orients itself and exactly most much phasing and amplification occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ya that run had way more potential, i'm really liking the chances of someone in the upper midwest seeing some wicked weather conditions in the 7-10 day time frame. The 00z euro was crazy with back to back blizzards in the upper midwest, if the lead S/w can't get the job done it seems like major amplification may occur with the next S/W entering behind it. I'd almost rather have a weaker first event and stronger 2nd event because if we do get a phase with the first event it would most likely amplify the trough so much that the 2nd wave ends up as a non event for most of us. We'll have to see how to models trend over the next few days on how the pv orients itself and exactly most much phasing and amplification occurs. Totally OT, but Dan A, Mike L, and I were talking about doing map analysis via skype sometime. You should join us. It will be DCVA all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I swear, it must be my mood today... I was reading Mr. Skilling's blog with disdain and skepticism.... Chicago Weather Center http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/ What he proffers makes meteorological sense.. My reaction is one of disbelief..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z GGEM Hr150 Hr 162 H180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Totally OT, but Dan A, Mike L, and I were talking about doing map analysis via skype sometime. You should join us. It will be DCVA all over again. I'm down i could just voice chat i don't have a webcam or i could go on my girlfriends computer she's got skype and a cam. It'd be fun For those of you south don't get to disapointed the ggem had a heck of a pattern setting up for you guys as the arctic front seeps south, it looked like a crazy active pattern setting up for the lakes into iowa if that pattern verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z EURO HR 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro trying to form a southern low in Texas at 168?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well, we'll write this one off right now then. I am so tired of rain in the middle of winter. The NYE mess was depressing. I am not going to sit and watch a storm, hanging on the to the slim hope that it might remain cold enough to get some snow out of it. Done. Prediction was for above normal precip for this region (GL).... too bad most of it appears to want to fall as rain..... I'll check again Wed to see if anything changes. GFS will probably have us with highs in the 50's by then.... lol...it rained what, one time? Get a grip man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12Z Euro Looks like a broad brushed 0.1-0.4 QPF for many and since this run is colder, most locations in OH/IN/IL would see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I will say it's been a while since we've had a SW flow/pre-frontal snowstorm. At least in this unusual situation the moderately -AO can help keep the LLJ (thus the WAA) subdued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For me it's a bit hard to get excited about the main low passing so far to the north. I think we'll continue to see it trend warmer ahead of the front as we get closer to the storm. My gut feeling is this ends up being basically just a strong arctic frontal passage with not much fanfare around these parts. Could be interesting for areas that have snow cover, as the strong winds behind the front blow the snow around. Especially areas way to the north where there's deep/dry snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For me it's a bit hard to get excited about the main low passing so far to the north. I think we'll continue to see it trend warmer ahead of the front as we get closer to the storm. My gut feeling is this ends up being basically just a strong arctic frontal passage with not much fanfare around these parts. Could be interesting for areas that have snow cover, as the strong winds behind the front blow the snow around. Especially areas way to the north where there's deep/dry snow cover. Euro looks like all snow here but like others, I'd be cautious with the thermal profiles this far out. Not that it can't happen but I can't recall it happening very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro looks like all snow here but like others, I'd be cautious with the thermal profiles this far out. Not that it can't happen but I can't recall it happening very often. I remember it happening a few times over the years, but it's a pretty rare occurrence. I'd feel better with a weak low to the north connected to a stronger low way to the south via inverted trough. With the dominant low way up north you can't help think stronger prefrontal WAA than what the models currently show. I guess we'll see how it all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol...it rained what, one time? Get a grip man. lol, that was a bit of a random meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol...it rained what, one time? Get a grip man. Like I said, it's my mood today....Totally irrational meltdown. I think I need a drink...or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Personally and I think the other mets here will agree, this pattern we are going into could yield a very significant system with it. The strength of that baroclinic zone is really amazing to be honest, and there is just tons of energy that will be crashing into the Pacific Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS misses the phase and kicks out the migratory wave and comes in flat and junky compared to what it could be. I have a feeling GFS will keep up with the flopping back and forth for the next few days. Interested to see what the ECMWF/ensembles does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like this storm might have been pushed back a day or two? If you are talking about a mega storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am not liking the trends tonight. The GFS/ECM op runs all miss the phase and also send a weak garbage wave ahead of the main ejecting S/W that does absolutely nothing but decrease the overall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am not liking the trends tonight. The GFS/ECM op runs all miss the phase and also send a weak garbage wave ahead of the main ejecting S/W that does absolutely nothing but decrease the overall potential. After the first wave goes by what is that for the second part? looks like a cold front with a line of precip with no identified ciruclation of a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z Euro deepens this storm, of course when it is well into Canada. Decent snow for parts of MN and WI, lighter amounts elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z Euro deepens this storm, of course when it is well into Canada. Decent snow for parts of MN and WI, lighter amounts elsewhere. Nothing like the Euro to be a big pile for almost everyone for both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nothing like the Euro to be a big pile for almost everyone for both storms. I'm not getting hung up on the Euro qpf for the first system, especially since most other models are juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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