Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 No real change on the 12z Euro. 0.1" line runs from just north of MSP to just south of GRB and then on east to northern 1/2 of lower MI. 0.25" goes from INL to through the U.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Unfortunately, like we see a lot, these monster storms barrel into the west and split the energy up into 2-3 pieces. From what I see its hard to get any of them to amplify. Either there are too many lows close to each other or none of the pieces are very strong to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 GFS/GGEM have certainly tamed this storm vs. what they were showing at 0z. Could still see a couple of inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 GFS/GGEM have certainly tamed this storm vs. what they were showing at 0z. Could still see a couple of inches though. I wouldn't worry too much as models tend to underdo QPF amounts at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wouldn't worry too much as models tend to underdo QPF amounts at this range. It's easy to see why they've trended drier. It's being depicted as a weaker storm (~1012mb). Models seem to want to split the energy into two weak clippers instead of one stronger one. Whatever though. It's January 12th and I'm already above normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NAM coming in amped up again. Move it south 75-100 miles and it'd be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Likes the nam this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Likes the nam this evening I think this one could be a nice hitter if the cards fall into place nicely. Would be nice to see the low track a bit South though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think this one could be a nice hitter if the cards fall into place nicely. Would be nice to see the low track a bit South though. I agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 these clippers usually fade for a bit and then come back on guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 these clippers usually fade for a bit and then come back on guidance Yeah there will be a wavering of intensity until it gets to about 42-48 hours out then things tend lock in fairly well, normally that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EH, Id like the NAM to move south quite a bit. Of course its way early in the game. If we arent getting the big one in the near-term, I am all about building up a snowcover so it will look like we had a big one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EH, Id like the NAM to move south quite a bit. Of course its way early in the game. If we arent getting the big one in the near-term, I am all about building up a snowcover so it will look like we had a big one lol. HAHHAHA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the models seem like a jumbled mess right now with no clear clue of whats going to happen starting Sunday-through next week. Things should get sorted out this weekend. No model has a real clear realistic solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Even though I think its wrong. The GFS has snows to begin this event to sleet to freezing rain to rain for southern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 06Z NAM run is much more realistic than the uber amped 00Z NAM. It is just so dry with a weak baroclinic zone for strong low level cyclogenesis. Placement, on the other hand, is still up in the air as the models are having issues with the southern wave and how that interacts with that northern stream low amplitude S/W. GFS still farther S, but I don't think that will verify. A weaker solution more inline with the NAM track is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This one bears watching. I could see a nice potential southern stream system phase and run up the eastern Lakes in the next 2-3 days. To far out so will see some wobbles but the general idea is for a low pressure system to develop in southern plains phase and track up the Lakes. Dont let plains system on the onset fool you because intially it will look like nothing but this has potential to blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 06Z NAM run is much more realistic than the uber amped 00Z NAM. It is just so dry with a weak baroclinic zone for strong low level cyclogenesis. Placement, on the other hand, is still up in the air as the models are having issues with the southern wave and how that interacts with that northern stream low amplitude S/W. GFS still farther S, but I don't think that will verify. A weaker solution more inline with the NAM track is more realistic. right but it can ampilfy and blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GRR: THE MAIN WEATHER SHOW FOR US STARTS TUESDAY WHEN THE FIRST PART OFTHE JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST ASIAN JET GETS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT WILL BE AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT ARCTIC STREAM WILL BE BRINGING THAT DENSE ARCTIC AIR FROM NORTHERN SIBERIA SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA VIA AN NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE. THERE IS SOME HINT OF PHASING AND IF THAT HAPPENS THIS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE DENSE ARCTIC AND AND LAKE EFFECT WOULD FOLLOW THAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS IT COULD BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THIS AREA. IT MAY BE AN EXTENDED EVENT TOO WHEN WE FOLD THE LAKE EFFECT INTO IT TOO. DTX: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST EARLY NEXTWEEK AS A VERY STRONG JET ARRIVES FROM THE PACIFIC AND CAUSES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD IN HOW MUCH THIS ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT RANGE IN LATITUDE FROM THE GULF COAST TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND MONITOR PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GRR: DTX: This thread is for the clipper, not the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 2-3" sounds like a good call. With the more northerly track looking like it's going to pan out, we should get dryslotted Saturday afternoon, thus inhibiting somewhat higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z NAM runs the clipper across northern MI. It also has an area of snow develop across IN/OH dropping anywhere from 0.10-0.25 QPF along and north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 LOT NEXT THREAT OF SNOW TO COME LATER FRI-FRI NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG WAA AND OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NW WA AND SW BC. THIS ONE SHOWING SOME BETTER LIFT/UVV DUE TO THE STRONGER WAA SO MAY SEE A COUPLE INCHES FORM THIS ONE...AGAIN BEST BET ACROSS N AND E PORTIONS. DECENT CAA FOLLOWING THIS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SO LAKE EFFECT TO INCREASE BUT NW-WNW LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP LES ON THE E SIDE OF THE LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 430 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... H5 S/W EXITS THE REGION BY AFTN ON FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE N IN THE MORNING. A STRONGER S/W THEN DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI NGT. SFC LOW FORMS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY. AS CDFNT DROPS SE LATE FRI NGT...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK INTO THE NW COUNTIES. WITH THE LOW PASSING ACROSS THE NRN LAKES...THE BEST LIFT STAYS ACROSS THE LP OF MI ALONG WITH THE BEST SNOW. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE FA ALONG THE CDFNT ON SAT. KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. ANY SNOWS ACROSS THE SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AS LOW PULLS E SAT NGT MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF KEEPS A BROAD NW FLOW ACRS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SCT SHSN. THE NAM MEANWHILE INCREASES THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CDFNT AND DROPS A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW S THRU THE FA LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT. THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FNT...BUT NOTHING TO THE EXTENT OF THE NAM. IT IS ALSO WEAKER WITH THE NW FLOW...SO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE IN QUESTION. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN THE NAM AND ECMWF. WENT CLOSE TO THE SREF NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS HIGHS. WITH A SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE CDFNT FRI NGT...PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS LOWS. FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...WENT WITH THE ECMWF VALUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z NAM trying to throw a little love (besides those in MN, WI, MI, ON) for east-central IL eastward to OH on Saturday with this next impulse/front. 60 hour total QPF through 0z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LOT up to its usual B.S. butt covering on 10 am update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1026 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2011 DISCUSSION 1003 AM CST ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS MADE TO FORECAST DATA SET FOR CURRENT AND SHORT TERM TRENDS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF ADVANCING ESE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS NE-SW FROM NE TO SW MN AND ON TO NW IA AT MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE TROF PROGGED TO W CENTRAL WI...SE MN...NE IA BY 00Z FRI WITH A WEAK SFC LOW FORMING OVER LK SUPERIOR. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FORECAST BUT WILL NEED SEEDING AND MOISTENING FROM MID AND HI LEVELS TO OVERCOME THE DRY MID LEVELS OBSERVED IN AREA 12Z RAOBS AND IN FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVE. EXPECT COLUMN TO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN WITH -SN BREAKING OUT FOR LATER EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. WITH EXCEPTION OF MORE GENEROUS 14.00Z GEM RUN...MODEL QPF VALUES ALL IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS RANGE AND LOOKS REASONABLE AS DOES LIKELY MOS POPS ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EVENT. 10 am update: TONIGHT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 4am forecast: TONIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT so updated discussion does not match updated forecast yet increased totals....which is it? This type of stuff really hurts credibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LOT up to its usual B.S. butt covering on 10 am update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1026 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2011 DISCUSSION 1003 AM CST ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS MADE TO FORECAST DATA SET FOR CURRENT AND SHORT TERM TRENDS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF ADVANCING ESE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS NE-SW FROM NE TO SW MN AND ON TO NW IA AT MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE TROF PROGGED TO W CENTRAL WI...SE MN...NE IA BY 00Z FRI WITH A WEAK SFC LOW FORMING OVER LK SUPERIOR. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA FORECAST BUT WILL NEED SEEDING AND MOISTENING FROM MID AND HI LEVELS TO OVERCOME THE DRY MID LEVELS OBSERVED IN AREA 12Z RAOBS AND IN FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVE. EXPECT COLUMN TO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN WITH -SN BREAKING OUT FOR LATER EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. WITH EXCEPTION OF MORE GENEROUS 14.00Z GEM RUN...MODEL QPF VALUES ALL IN THE FEW HUNDREDTHS RANGE AND LOOKS REASONABLE AS DOES LIKELY MOS POPS ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EVENT. 10 am update: TONIGHT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 4am forecast: TONIGHT...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT so updated discussion does not match updated forecast yet increased totals....which is it? This type of stuff really hurts credibility... Ya I dont agree with the 1-3" call. I'd say up to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty moderate snow through here. Some folks who expected light snow on the very southern edge may be surprised once again. 18Z NAM is a huge improvement in its simulation of events and looks more realistic than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 calling 3-5 ottawa (7-13cm) 1-3 montreal (3-8cm) should be a nice clipper for the ottawa valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 LOT bumped me up to 1-2 inches from nothing. Another clipper goes south of modeling, seasonal trends FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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