Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Positive trending AO and near neutral NAO equals a farther north storm track and some SNOW for those from MI towards Toronto. Maybe advisory level snows in this area with the Friday night/Saturday clipper. And then a much stronger system around Tue/Wed next week. I am nervous about a rain event in my backyard if that tells you anything. Of course, this is medium range forecasting so anybody's guess on here is as good as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Positive trending AO and near neutral NAO equals a farther north storm track and some SNOW for those from MI towards Toronto. Maybe advisory level snows in this area with the Friday night/Saturday clipper. And then a much stronger system around Tue/Wed next week. I am nervous about a rain event in my backyard if that tells you anything. Of course, this is medium range forecasting so anybody's guess on here is as good as mine. If the super north track comes to fruition, you might be on to something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 All of a sudden we have a clipper-type system headed here possibly tomorrow night into Friday morning, as well as another clipper Saturday, then something Monday? But probably no big storm? I agree, its hard to know whats what in this thread lol, storms and rumors of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NAM still pretty far north (no shocker there) but hints at a brief period of decent snow even on the southern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I have been out of the loop lately with the EC Noreaster--what storm are we talking about here? I see two clippers within the next 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I have been out of the loop lately with the EC Noreaster--what storm are we talking about here? I see two clippers within the next 3-4 days. I figured given the timeframe this thread was for the stronger second one around the 15th/16th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I believe this thread is for the clipper that comes through Friday-Saturday (HR 72-84 area) Then another storm comes on Tuesday I think? (according to the GFS) The one for Thursday is just a weak clipper anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I believe this thread is for the clipper that comes through Friday-Saturday (HR 72-84 area) Then another storm comes on Tuesday I think? (according to the GFS) The one for Thursday is just a weak clipper anyways. I started a thread to contain talk re: the hazy threats beyond the two clippers which look pretty locked in as far as existing is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I figured given the timeframe this thread was for the stronger second one around the 15th/16th? Ok. The second one I was thinking was the one--just wanted to make sure. Wow yuck, it just weakens over the dead baroclinic zone in NW flow--it can't amplify. Not phasing with that west coast wave is not helping anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ok. The second one I was thinking was the one--just wanted to make sure. Wow yuck, it just weakens over the dead baroclinic zone in NW flow--it can't amplify. Not phasing with that west coast wave is not helping anything. yeah it's looking lamer by the run and my attention is shifting beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: the clipper, we have yet to see a super far north track like is being advertised yet this season, so i'm a little skeptical, however it might be a sigh that the great lakes blocking is finally weakening, in which case i doubt the other storm you all are talking about stays supressed. Gut feeling, we see the clipper track a good bit south of advertised. Not the case here. Clippers of this low amplitude are a different beast. If the baroclinic zone in the low levels is weak and junky like it is here, it won't amplify and it will stay closer to the upper level front--resulting in a weak northern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The new GFS looks a little less impressive with the 15th clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Not the case here. Clippers of this low amplitude are a different beast. If the baroclinic zone in the low levels is weak and junky like it is here, it won't amplify and it will stay closer to the upper level front--resulting in a weak northern track. makes sense, looking more and more like it plows through the northwoods in unimpressive fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 makes sense, looking more and more like it plows through the northwoods in unimpressive fashion. That big dome of cold air aloft wants to do some damage, but the broad NW flow is not helping anything. The first disturbance is not helping either since it wrecks what little baroclinic zone we had. Taking the GFS verbatim--you can note how awful the baroclinic zone is by the way the first ejecting Montana low transfers N as it heads into the plains (with the second system)--there is nothing there for that first system. It dies an ugly death and is relegated to the trash bin of Alberta Clippers transitioning into NW flow weak disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'd rather sacrifice this clipper for the better potential following it. *ducks* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Personally I think the NAM is too amplified and too wet given its position on the heels of the first wave and in such an unfavorable NW flow. It isn't that clippers can't develop a decent shot of snow, just not unless they amplify a lot more and develop a strong low level circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'd rather sacrifice this clipper for the better potential following it. *ducks* Hi Ana Ivanovic--I mean ChicagoWx. Edit: Looks like Ana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That big dome of cold air aloft wants to do some damage, but the broad NW flow is not helping anything. The first disturbance is not helping either since it wrecks what little baroclinic zone we had. Taking the GFS verbatim--you can note how awful the baroclinic zone is by the way the first ejecting Montana low transfers N as it heads into the plains (with the second system)--there is nothing there for that first system. It dies an ugly death and is relegated to the trash bin of Alberta Clippers transitioning into NW flow weak disturbances. Care to elaborate on the bolded part? Also isnt there always a nw flow with clippers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hi Ana Ivanovic--I mean ChicagoWx. Edit: Looks like Ana. It is. Close to Australian Open time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Care to elaborate on the bolded part? Also isnt there always a nw flow with clippers? Without getting into too long of a discussion, yes, most clippers are in a W-NW flow of some sort. But if there isn't a sufficient thermal gradient in the low levels for the upper level disturbance to amplify over, then it will remain a weak and flat wave aloft passing through uneventfully. Don't get me wrong, it will drop some light snow, just nothing exciting. True clippers amplify over very tight thermal gradients in the low levels and develop very intense low level circulations. A good example from this year was in November when we had about 3-4 storms push through the plains as that west coast trough broke down. The storm that rode the Canadian border was a classic example. If anyone remembers link me a map or give me a date (I believe it was mid-November). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Such a bizarre winter. Sure wish we could dig a huge trough out west and eject a monster into the Midwest. I don't see that happening anytime soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It is. Close to Australian Open time. Tennis is awesome! I love it too--my favorite sport by far. Nadal/Federer on the men's side is something everyone should be cherishing--a classic rivalry we may never see again. Big Djokovic fan too. Women's side is lucky to have Kim Clijsters back. The Williams sisters are abominable--can't stand them. I do like Ana too--nice to see her comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Tennis is awesome! I love it too--my favorite sport by far. Nadal/Rafa on the men's side is something everyone should be cherishing--a classic rivalry we may never see again. Big Djokovic fan too. Women's side is lucky to have Kim Clijsters back. The Williams sisters are abominable--can't stand them. I do like Ana too--nice to see her comeback. Nadal playing against himself would be something. But yeah I get what you're saying, Federer/Nadal is pretty classic. Djokovic is cool too. Clijsters being back is huge. There's some good young talent on the women's side too (Wozniacki, Azarenka, etc.). But Ana is my favorite...good looks help too. And yes she's made a nice comeback...hope it continues through this next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Without getting into too long of a discussion, yes, most clippers are in a W-NW flow of some sort. But if there isn't a sufficient thermal gradient in the low levels for the upper level disturbance to amplify over, then it will remain a weak and flat wave aloft passing through uneventfully. Don't get me wrong, it will drop some light snow, just nothing exciting. True clippers amplify over very tight thermal gradients in the low levels and develop very intense low level circulations. A good example from this year was in November when we had about 3-4 storms push through the plains as that west coast trough broke down. The storm that rode the Canadian border was a classic example. If anyone remembers link me a map or give me a date (I believe it was mid-November). Thanks for the reply. As per the bolded text, because temp differences wont be too large where the storm will track that doesnt allow it to amplify? Also the first clipper ruins the temp differences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thanks for the reply. As per the bolded text, because temp differences wont be too large where the storm will track that doesnt allow it to amplify? Also the first clipper ruins the temp differences? We will have to see how this all plays out. I have a hunch the models are catching on to the obs--that is the large region of cold air spilling over much of the CONUS in the wake of this EC trough. Cold air can be moved out of the way, but not by low amplitude waves. Large rossby waves would be needed to draw in Gulf moisture--and the snowpack covering much of the country will keep it cooler for a little bit here as air modification will be relegated to the deep southern plains. http://www.nohrsc.no...05_National.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 We will have to see how this all plays out. I have a hunch the models are catching on to the obs--that is the large region of cold air spilling over much of the CONUS in the wake of this EC trough. Cold air can be moved out of the way, but not by low amplitude waves. Large rossby waves would be needed to draw in Gulf moisture--and the snowpack covering much of the country will keep it cooler for a little bit here as air modification will be relegated to the deep southern plains. http://www.nohrsc.no...05_National.jpg how does this effect our weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Nadal playing against himself would be something. But yeah I get what you're saying, Federer/Nadal is pretty classic. Djokovic is cool too. Clijsters being back is huge. There's some good young talent on the women's side too (Wozniacki, Azarenka, etc.). But Ana is my favorite...good looks help too. And yes she's made a nice comeback...hope it continues through this next season. Haha, yeah that is what I meant--thanks for the correction. Agreed though, the women's game is getting a nice injection of new talent, and it is great to see the classy Clijsters at the top. The women's game has long been stale and lacking solid top performers, but hopefully that can change with this new crop of talent including Wozniacki. For how young she is, she is showing a lot of potential. If we are going by looks only though, Maria Kirilenko takes the cake--although Ana is quite the looker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Haha, yeah that is what I meant--thanks for the correction. Agreed though, the women's game is getting a nice injection of new talent, and it is great to see the classy Clijsters at the top. The women's game has long been stale and lacking solid top performers, but hopefully that can change with this new crop of talent including Wozniacki. For how young she is, she is showing a lot of potential. If we are going by looks only though, Maria Kirilenko takes the cake--although Ana is quite the looker as well. Kirilenko is hot, but she's no Ana for me. But we better move long here...don't want Hoosier getting mad. 12z GGEM looks like a light snow event for MN, WI, MI, and ON. Certainly the trends seem to be for a weaker, more modest hit of snow for the Upper MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Kirilenko is hot, but she's no Ana for me. But we better move long here...don't want Hoosier getting mad. 12z GGEM looks like a light snow event for MN, WI, MI, and ON. Certainly the trends seem to be for a weaker, more modest hit of snow for the Upper MW. In all honesty, the CMC will be as good as it can get. I still think the qpf may be a tad overdone, but with the dry/cold air, these can still squeeze out a few inches of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 0z ECMWF keeps precip north of a line from MSP to GRB to Bad Axe. is exactly how I feel about the pattern for us here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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