TUweathermanDD Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 650 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 MDZ006-007-011-080800- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.110108T0900Z-110108T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BALTIMORE 650 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...MINIMA TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. MAXIMA SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ KRAMAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 650 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 MDZ006-007-011-080800- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.110108T0900Z-110108T2300Z/ NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BALTIMORE 650 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...MINIMA TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. MAXIMA SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ KRAMAR wtf???? no way those hi-res verify inch,...mayyyyybe 2 and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If nws is right, this may be the storm of the year for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'll take 1-2" without complaint for tomorrow morning.... I would also take 6-12 but it has just as small a chance as 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If nws is right, this may be the storm of the year for me... That NWS forecast has Ender's name written all over it. Hey Ender, thanks for the forecast....looking real good CYA at verification time...your name is ENDER isn't it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Hi-Res Locally Run LWX models crush Central Maryland with mod-hvy snow then a very heavy squall line coming after hr 24. Link please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hi res models are probably bunk with their max output.. they do the same with convection. ratios will be great anywhere that gets into the good stuff tho. models spitting out .1"+ could get into that range. im frankly surprised it comes to my doorstep but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 706 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 MDZ004-005-009-010-013-014-080815- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.110108T0600Z-110108T1800Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...ANNAPOLIS 706 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...MINIMA TONIGHT IN THE LOW 20S. MAXIMA SATURDAY IN THE LOW 30S. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2-4"......seriously? I'm highly skeptical that we get a high end advisory event tonight into tomorrow. Hell, I was hoping for 2-4 from this Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 2-4"......seriously? I'm highly skeptical that we get a high end advisory event tonight into tomorrow. Hell, I was hoping for 2-4 from this Tuesday storm. 4" seems a bit much but maybe ne md? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ain't that something JB called for 1-3" for us at 5:30 A.M. this morning time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1-2" seems more likely/reasonable area-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 4" seems a bit much but maybe ne md? Well, the 12z ARW gives me .5"+ of QPF but I took it as some fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Weather Channel forecast is for 2-3 inches of snow here in Waldorf late tonight and tomorrow morning. They are all drinking some good Kool-Aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Kind of a nice surprise to come home to (Winter Wx Adv). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1-2" seems more likely/reasonable area-wide these inverted trough things seem to be like miller bs.. often northeast of modeled. but, i think the nam implies that someone in ne md could get in on it nicely if it comes together right. can see the trough axis and better lift pointing at that area in two panels. the issue is that people just south of it might get almost nothing.. like rockville 1-3? that's going to need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Kind of a nice surprise to come home to (Winter Wx Adv). its because you've been drinking after work and you are not at your home you're at Jon-Jon's house get home now before he calls the police Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 these inverted trough things seem to be like miller bs.. often northeast of modeled. but, i think the nam implies that someone in ne md could get in on it nicely if it comes together right. can see the trough axis and better lift pointing at that area in two panels. the issue is that people just south of it might get almost nothing.. like rockville 1-3? that's going to need some luck. what makes no sense to me is that ALL of the models show the highest qpf over and east of the Chessie Bay, yet the NWS puts Balto County in a 2-4" area and Annapolis and eastern Anne Arundel County (much further east) in the 1-3" area OK, maybe the NWS boys/girls think they are better than the models, bbbuuut, I don't know about that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Considering I expected party sunny skies tomorrow a small accumulation is a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 what makes no sense to me is that ALL of the models show the highest qpf over and east of the Chessie Bay, yet the NWS puts Balto County in a 2-4" area and Annapolis and eastern Anne Arundel County (much further east) in the 1-3" area OK, maybe the NWS boys/girls think they are better than the models, bbbuuut, I don't know about that one it does seem a little odd but it's not like we didn't get to dig out from 6-10 2 weeks ago at least. j/k... i love lwx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No way anyone in the area gets 4". Someone NE of me might get 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Considering I expected party sunny skies tomorrow a small accumulation is a nice surprise. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Did you guys see this page? Explains a bit of the 2-4 range issues. IMHO, too high still. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No way anyone in the area gets 4". Someone NE of me might get 2 inches. models are probably going to miss the max a little, so if they're spitting out .1"+ there's gotta be some places that get .15"-.2" +... that gets you into the middle of the range with 15:1 ratios, could even be better than that if it comes together in correctly. i think the ratios are key most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 models are probably going to miss the max a little, so if they're spitting out .1"+ there's gotta be some places that get .15"-.2" +... that gets you into the middle of the range with 15:1 ratios, could even be better than that if it comes together in correctly. i think the ratios are key most likely. Sort of funny that you are bullish on this and I am bearish and the reverse is true in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sort of funny that you are bullish on this and I am bearish and the reverse is true in the other thread. I dont quite get their overall placement. I would shift northeast a bit probably. But this is sorta like LES or can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The locally run hires models from LWX seem to indicate after the snow showers tomorrow morning another batch (possibly heavier) sets up in the DC area around 12-1pm. But we all know how accurate those are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NMM at 18z tomorrow (18z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 recently issued from LWX http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 recently issued from LWX http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ They almost have me in 2 inches. If we can get some dendrites, the ratios should be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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