Siberian Express Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Today was the first high risk - it just never showed up on their page I would concur Beau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The lack of arguably worthy high risk days the past few weeks will surely jinx the first real high risk that's still forthcoming LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The lack of arguably worthy high risk days the past few weeks will surely jinx the first real high risk that's still forthcoming LOL. The thing is if today wasn't a high risk in their eyes, what will be? I want to be around to see a day top today this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 The thing is if today wasn't a high risk in their eyes, what will be? I want to be around to see a day top today this year. I am with you on that one. I wonder how many tornadoes will actually be confirmed from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Today was the first high risk - it just never showed up on their page Oh come on Beau. You're just trying to steal me and Jim's thunder with our 1st part of May prediction. All joking aside, yesterday was quite a memorable, if not historical, severe weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 4/16: NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 4/16: NC "amazing call" .. LOL.. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 161616Z - 161715Z AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 For the record: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC...NC AND VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GA... ...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC WHERE A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ADDED... ...CAROLINAS/VA/WV/MID-ATLANTIC/ERN GA... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE TODAY ALONG A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUGGESTING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. 0 TO 3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST FROM RALEIGH NC SSWWD TO NEAR FLORENCE SC AND EAST OF THAT LINE ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED WHERE THE CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED. A LONG-TRACK TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA IN ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA. 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND A FAST EWD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL. THE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS FAR NORTH AS NRN VA AND MD...THE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. ACROSS ERN GA...THIS AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS ERN GA. ..BROYLES/SMITH.. 04/16/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 4/16: NC North Carolina?! Who wooda thunk it? Anybody chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I'm not sure what's special about today. The setup looks good but I don't think it's any better than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 .... It also pays to see who writes the outlook discussion. Every forecaster is different - some are more bullish than others. There used to be someone in our group that could tell you which ones issued the most high risks vs moderate and slight risks. Believe there was one name in particular. Is that bad or good? I don't know - just something to keep in mind when readings the discussions. I see today is a high risk and I just shake my head. Makes absolutely no sense to see a high risk today and not see one yesterday. Which in turn tells me that the risks are only good for guidance and as yet one more tool we have to look over and read - then make an informed decision on how you think the event will unfold. ... A good post Beau. I agree that some of today was a knee-jerk to the events yesterday. However, the forecaster on duty may have also played a factor. Broyles (who did the 1630Z outlook today) is one of the more bullish forecasters on staff, and will pull the trigger if conditions look good. I think that if he had done either the 1630 or 2000Z outlook yesterday, it would've been a high risk and we wouldn't be talking about this right now. Instead, Jewell, who is one of the more conservative forecasters there, issued the 20Z outlook yesterday. Furthermore, SPC's philosophy changed such that the 20Z outlooks are seen now as "updates" to prior outlooks, almost like a U.S. MCD (all 20Z outlooks these days are mostly just recopies of the 1630 outlook with 'updates' added to the top). As such, the more informal atmosphere of the 20Z outlook may serve to discourage making a big MDT -> HIGH jump during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I do have to chuckle at the first high risk of the season being in eastern N. Carolina. Not questioning SPC's judgment...just chuckling that it is not in the traditionally favored tornado alley areas. Presume this is the first time we've seen 30% hatched for tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I have learned the hard way that risks are simply forecasts by a couple of individuals. Yes - they are experts. But - I would argue that there are many many meteorologists who often disagree with the risk rhyme and reason methods. There are many forecasters among our group that do just as well when it comes to the finer details and picking the atmosphere apart. But - then again - there are more of us combined - discussing and hashing out the situation. I we are borg... the collective is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 A good post Beau. I agree that some of today was a knee-jerk to the events yesterday. However, the forecaster on duty may have also played a factor. Broyles (who did the 1630Z outlook today) is one of the more bullish forecasters on staff, and will pull the trigger if conditions look good. I think that if he had done either the 1630 or 2000Z outlook yesterday, it would've been a high risk and we wouldn't be talking about this right now. Instead, Jewell, who is one of the more conservative forecasters there, issued the 20Z outlook yesterday. Furthermore, SPC's philosophy changed such that the 20Z outlooks are seen now as "updates" to prior outlooks, almost like a U.S. MCD (all 20Z outlooks these days are mostly just recopies of the 1630 outlook with 'updates' added to the top). As such, the more informal atmosphere of the 20Z outlook may serve to discourage making a big MDT -> HIGH jump during that time. I hate to play this game of dissecting individuals or even the SPC as a whole. But to be honest, before this year I never really paid much attention to who was actually writing the forecast, but there were a few times this year when the Day 3 or Day 4+ outlooks were especially bullishly written, and I began to wonder. Indeed, the same name kept popping up, and when I saw the high risk upgrade today, I just knew who it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 so broyles is the stacey stewart of the SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I'm not sure what's special about today. The setup looks good but I don't think it's any better than yesterday. I see what you mean, and I totally agree. However, it wouldn't take a day quite like yesterday to still verify high risk, and if they think that today will indeed meet that criteria, they should by all means issue a high risk irrespective of how it compares to the previous day, or how they performed on the previous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Given current radar trends, today might actually give yesterday's event a run for its money. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Given current radar trends, today might actually give yesterday's event a run for its money. Wow Quote from the latest SPC outlook... RADAR AT 1915Z SHOWS CLASSIC SUPERCELL WITH INTENSE TORNADIC COUPLET HEADING TOWARDS RALEIGH METRO AREA WITH POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING EFFECTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 And a PDS box - no PDS boxes yesterday. Not that the public knows the difference. When I was watching the outbreak that occuried in OK this week, I was listening to NOAA radio and they didn't once mention the PDS watch. Since I live in AZ we do not have these, but when I lived in INDY this was always communicated to the public. Has this policy changed? The debate in reagrds to the outlooks is always hard to judge. I think one thing I noticed is the media backed off on this event at first, because the so-called bust that took place earlier in the week in WI. Over hype vs. Under hype. However, I think many of us here saw that this system had danger written all over it when the models started to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! This is incredible. I hope and pray this is not the case in Raliegh and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Storm that just went throught Raliegh is showing 130kts g2g. WOW! I was listening to the Raliegh PD and is sounds like there is chaios happening over there. No good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The thing is if today wasn't a high risk in their eyes, what will be? I want to be around to see a day top today this year. Does reported EF3 damage in a major metro top yesterday? Sent from my HTC Thunderbolt using Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I agree it was well called for today. I am just sorry to see all that are being affected by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 North Carolina?! Who wooda thunk it? Anybody chasing? WeatherWarrior and Ellinwood were on the Raleigh cell I think.. now on the one SE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Does reported EF3 damage in a major metro top yesterday? Sent from my HTC Thunderbolt using Tapatalk. Yes it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 When the NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts tornado watches here in my area - I have never heard them say whether it is or is not a PDS watch. Unsure if there are different policies in different areas? Could be. I thought the computer read the text verbatim? Sent from my HTC Thunderbolt using Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I thought the computer read the text verbatim? Sent from my HTC Thunderbolt using Tapatalk. The individual office has some control over what is read, however I'm almost positive that a PDS statement is always included on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 160+ prelim tornadoes last three days Now nearly 220. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 One in Oregon? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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