November Analogs Hinting At -NAO DJFM 2010-2011 On Average

[bluewave]

It's starting to look like that this November will turn out like 1950,1952,1955,1963,1965,and 1995 in terms of the negative NAO.

While this is not a large number of analogs,the following DJFM on average turned out negative to varying degrees.

We'll get to see if the big drop in the NAO in the model forecasts as we get further into NOV show some similarity to the

analog group composites as we head into the winter.

[Lee]

If your using just La nina composites, you accidentally put the 63- 64 El nino in there.

[bluewave]

If your using just La nina composites, you accidentally put the 63- 64 El nino in there.

I am using years based on the state of the NAO this November for the composite.

[bluewave]

Here are some daily 500 mb height anomaly matches from the analog years similar in magnitude to model forecasts:

[tacoman25]

1950 and 1955 were two of my top analogs in my winter forecast (along with 1964), and they continue to show up consistently in pattern matches so far.

[NinjaWarrior2]

I am using years based on the state of the NAO this November for the composite.

NAO wont have a big influence on the weather for the country this winter. Nina is overpowering with the -PNA/+QBO, too much of a SE Ridge for those, if we had a +PNA, this winter could have been great.

[nynjpaweather]

NAO wont have a big influence on the weather for the country this winter. Nina is overpowering with the -PNA/+QBO, too much of a SE Ridge for those, if we had a +PNA, this winter could have been great.

A negative NAO typically has a far more powerful influence on the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England than ENSO. Rest of the nation not so much, but if a negative NAO get cranking, it has a dominant influence on these locations.

[Lee]

NAO wont have a big influence on the weather for the country this winter. Nina is overpowering with the -PNA/+QBO, too much of a SE Ridge for those, if we had a +PNA, this winter could have been great.

Ninja, I don't think you saw my reply to your post regarding how the 2 analogues you were using as proof that the -PDO completely trumps the -NAO. You made a composite out of Winter '55-56 and 71-72(dec-feb) and it did show what looked like a typical Nina Winter layout. However, 71-72 was the reason that looked that way; strong + departures in the SE, with average in that area in '55-56.

Here are links to the two :

'71-72

http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/tmp/StMap-Nov1816:19:430816040039.gif

55-56

http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/tmp/StMap-Nov1816:21:121194152832.gif

So, clearly an influence in the entire East in 55-56. Of couse, as i mentioned in your post, sample size is just way too low .

[Kaner587]

BTW Ninja, also the -NAO correlation with cold in the east is MUCH stronger in the middle of the winter than it is in Nov.

[HKY_WX]

This is why 64-65 continues to be a good analog IMO. the nina that year wasn't as strong, but the nao and overall nina progression/timing was very similar.

[Isotherm]

1950 and 1955 were two of my top analogs in my winter forecast (along with 1964), and they continue to show up consistently in pattern matches so far.

Tacoman, yeah I like where we're going pattern wise. Those earlier year Ninas of the last -PDO phase continue to show up as analogs for the upcoming anomaly distribution.

[Isotherm]

NAO wont have a big influence on the weather for the country this winter. Nina is overpowering with the -PNA/+QBO, too much of a SE Ridge for those, if we had a +PNA, this winter could have been great.

The NAO is probably one of the most important indices for Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid atlantic weather. It's a reason why even NOAA's winter outlook depicts an equal chances zone from VA to ME, accounting for the uncertainty WRT the Atlantic regime. NAO can influence the pattern quite significantly in strong ENSO, particularly in the northern US. For the Southern/Southeast US, it's more difficult to get help from the NAO w/ a raging La Nina.

[tacoman25]

Tacoman, yeah I like where we're going pattern wise. Those earlier year Ninas of the last -PDO phase continue to show up as analogs for the upcoming anomaly distribution.

Yup. There's no question that those Ninas tended to see earlier intrusions of significant Arctic air into the lower 48, and that will be the case this year as well. Recent Ninas like 2007, 1999, 1998, and 1988 all failed to do that.

[NinjaWarrior2]

A negative NAO typically has a far more powerful influence on the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England than ENSO. Rest of the nation not so much, but if a negative NAO get cranking, it has a dominant influence on these locations.

NAO has the most influence on the East US/East Canada/Atlantic

PNA has the most influence in the PAC NW/Western Canada/Alaska/GOA and the Southeast.

A -PNA/-ENSO couplet would enchance the correlation, BOTH of them in their Negative modes would give ABOVE AVERAGE temps in the SE/MA, -NAO/-PNA/-ENSO all in one year isnt that common, so well see. BTW im only 15

[Riptide]

NAO has the most influence on the East US/East Canada/Atlantic

PNA has the most influence in the PAC NW/Western Canada/Alaska/GOA and the Southeast.

A -PNA/-ENSO couplet would enchance the correlation, BOTH of them in their Negative modes would give ABOVE AVERAGE temps in the SE/MA, -NAO/-PNA/-ENSO all in one year isnt that common, so well see. BTW im only 15

Nicely stated and thank you for your thoughts and welcome to the forums.

[bluewave]

Back in FEB/MAR 2009 we had a pattern with a similar look to the composite and we got a temperature anomaly distribution that was close.