mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 heights definitely higher along the east coast this run vs. 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 that N stream trough seems to be almost suck between 72-78 hrs however, and that worries me i see blizzard extrapolitation. When does 18z dgex come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 clearly by 78 hrs the southern system is dying and will be dead until the N stream makes its move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 heights definitely higher along the east coast this run vs. 12Z That means the storm will want to go further north, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i see blizzard extrapolitation. When does 18z dgex come out? right after they put your straight jacket back on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That means the storm will want to go further north, correct? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hr 84 h5 and h7 parting shots form the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yes Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That means the storm will want to go further north, correct? It should, higher heights in the east would imply that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We still need that Northern Stream to dig a little faster/further to catch it I think but not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What? It's in the same position its always been for the past 2 days. If anything the two vorts are closer. I wasn't comparing it to previous runs, I should have said still....The northern energy does still not catch up fast enough and it probably wont, as many have stated our best case scenario is probably a 3-6 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I wasn't comparing it to previous runs, I should have said still....The northern energy does still not catch up fast enough and it probably wont, as many have stated our best case scenario is probably a 3-6 incher. Thanks for checking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 300 mb difference between the 90h 12Z GFS and the 84h 18 Z NAM is significant to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We still need that Northern Stream to dig a little faster/further to catch it I think but not a bad run. As I said earlier, you might not need that. For DCA/BWI, you might, because Miller B solutions aren't always the best for your area, but I think what was happening on the 12Z suite of the NAM and GFS was that the southern stream feature was being sheared and strung out, and the NORTHERN stream feature was encountering the leftover energy on the coast and blowing up into a Miller B. If seems like the NAM still wants to do that (keeping the northern stream element dominant while the southern stream element serves as the kickstart to cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 As I said earlier, you might not need that. For DCA/BWI, you might, because Miller B solutions aren't always the best for your area, but I think what was happening on the 12Z suite of the NAM and GFS was that the southern stream feature was being sheared and strung out, and the NORTHERN stream feature was encountering the leftover energy on the coast and blowing up into a Miller B. If seems like the NAM still wants to do that (keeping the northern stream element dominant while the southern stream element serves as the kickstart to cyclogenesis. That's what has always been happening. That's not a new development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z DGEX location is even further west. Blows up once north of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z GFS at 48hrs simalar to 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 54hrs is a LITTLE better than 12z IMO, more amplifed and precip more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yes, DGEX is a big hit in the northeast, its too late south of Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Still better thru 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Improved vs 12z so far, a little more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Amped is the name of the game here. Looks like the mesoscale models with the northern branch ridge. The low level inverted trough will be stronger here for the northern tier states. Still hard to say what it will do for coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro ensembles are a big hit Surface low tracks off the NJ coast at 114 hours..then over or maybe just inside the benchmark at 120. Well north and west of last nights 00z ensembles. Overwhelming majority of Euro members are north and west of the OP..there are some very big hits. A whole bunch of them. Info regarding the 12z Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 78hrs precip shield is further north than 12z AND 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This run is still not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Eh, then it goes similar to the other runs, maybe a little weaeker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Clearly missed some ROABs.. fully onshore at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That 18Z GFS was an odd run. It has a better looking ridge axis ahead of the western trough yet the shortwave sails through like the ridge isn't there and even weakens things a bit. Something isn't making sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its another reason why 6z and 18z runs are just a waist of time.. Just dreadful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its another reason why 6z and 18z runs are just a waist of time.. Just dreadful... Elaborate on this for me if you could be so kind? If there were no observations assimilated at 18z, it would look effectively the same as 12z because of how data assimilation works (lagged six hours, so 120h from 18z would look like 126h from 12z). BTW, we STILL assimilate millions of observations during these cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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