Atlantic Hurricanes: Reanalyzed

[HurricaneJosh]

Back on topic (reanalysis)... I'll post my reanalysis of Celia later. Ciao for now!

[Scott747]

Back on topic (reanalysis)... I'll post my reanalysis of Celia later.

Corpus did a update for the 40th anniversary of Celia. Can't remember if I mentioned it or you may have already noticed it.

[Scorpion]

How are we for sure Carla was a 4? Could have been similar to Rita or Ike in that it was a massive sprawling system, and those are very spread it resulting in weaker winds.

[wxmx]

How are we for sure Carla was a 4? Could have been similar to Rita or Ike in that it was a massive sprawling system, and those are very spread it resulting in weaker winds.

Josh not only posted the central pressure, but there was a gust to 130kt before the instrument failed, neither Rita nor Ike reported any gust that high. And there's all the wind related damage. There's definitely a case for a Cat 4 LF.

[k***]

I find it hard to get excited about any Texas storms.

[HurricaneJosh]

I find it hard to get excited about any Texas storms.

Really? How come? They are some of my faves.

And it's also my favorite chase turf (aside from the extra-hawt Yucatan ).

[k***]

Really? How come? They are some of my faves.

And it's also my favorite chase turf (aside from the extra-hawt Yucatan ).

My feelings are kind of like the ethnicity thread...hot is hot and at some point they're ****able, but by default I am more attracted to landfalls in FL and the Caribbean.

[HurricaneJosh]

My feelings are kind of like the ethnicity thread...hot is hot and at some point they're ****able, but by default I am more attracted to landfalls in FL and the Caribbean.

Indianola 1886, Galveston 1900, Carla 1961, Beulah 1967, and Celia 1970 were very f*ckable.

[kwt]

IMO Beulah is one of the forgotten beasts of the past, that really was an amazing hurricane, I think the problem is it came in a decade was just unreal for beastly systems, so many powerful systems developed in the 60s.

Indeed I don't think there is a better decade out there, even the 00s IMO are beaten by the 60s...I mean names such as:

Donna

Carla

Hattie

Flora (another massivly under-rated hurricane, 5th most deadly ever in the basin!)

Cleo

Dora

Hilda

Isbell

Betsy

Alma (67)

Inez

Beulah

Camille

I honestly don't think there is another decade out there that can compete with that list, the 40s and 00s were good though but IMO not quite as frequantly good.

[wxmx]

IMO Beulah is one of the forgotten beasts of the past, that really was an amazing hurricane, I think the problem is it came in a decade was just unreal for beastly systems, so many powerful systems developed in the 60s.

Indeed I don't think there is a better decade out there, even the 00s IMO are beaten by the 60s...I mean names such as:

Donna

Carla

Hattie

Flora (another massivly under-rated hurricane, 5th most deadly ever in the basin!)

Cleo

Dora

Hilda

Isbell

Betsy

Alma (67)

Inez

Beulah

Camille

I honestly don't think there is another decade out there that can compete with that list, the 40s and 00s were good though but IMO not quite as frequantly good.

Yeah, if we could only mimic the -NAO of the 60's... oops.

[Sickman]

IMO Beulah is one of the forgotten beasts of the past, that really was an amazing hurricane, I think the problem is it came in a decade was just unreal for beastly systems, so many powerful systems developed in the 60s.

Indeed I don't think there is a better decade out there, even the 00s IMO are beaten by the 60s...I mean names such as:

Donna

Carla

Hattie

Flora (another massivly under-rated hurricane, 5th most deadly ever in the basin!)

Cleo

Dora

Hilda

Isbell

Betsy

Alma (67)

Inez

Beulah

Camille

I honestly don't think there is another decade out there that can compete with that list, the 40s and 00s were good though but IMO not quite as frequantly good.

I can't imagine being in hurricane conditions for four days straight.

I'm sure Josh could, though.

[kwt]

I mean even without the horrid death total, this was still a very impressive system.

A major into Tobago, peak of 145mbs/940mbs, landfall at a strength close to that (without weakening much at all!) and then dumping insane amounts of rain (50-75 INCHES!) to Haiti/E.Cuba. Simply an amazing hurricane.

Flora just came at a time that was utterly loaded with monster hurricanes and is very overlooked, but no doubt its up there.

[Scott747]

Back on topic (reanalysis)... I'll post my reanalysis of Celia later. Ciao for now!

Eastern Bloc timing?

[HurricaneJosh]

Celia 1970: Reanalysis of the TX Impact

This costly Texas hurricane has always been considered a Cat-3 impact. However, applying reanalysis methodologies described in other studies leads me to the conclusion that Celia was actually a Cat 4 at landfall in TX.

Summary

Celia formed in the NW Caribbean in late July. Moving NNW initially, it crossed the W tip of Cuba as a depression, then strengthened into a major hurricane as it pushed into the C Gulf of Mexico. Turning toward the WNW, Celia made a beeline for the TX coast as it steadily weakened. When just 250 mi off the coast, winds were only 75 kt—a Cat 1. However, the cyclone rapidly strengthened in the final 15 hrs before landfall, crossing the coast just N of Corpus Christi at ~1530 CST 03 August as a powerful hurricane. (The satellite picture below is from 2033Z-- just when the center was crossing the coast.)

Storm surge flooding was not terribly extensive, and the storm’s small size and brisk movement precluded very heavy rainfall totals. The wind damage, however, was extreme—with swaths of Corpus Christi and nearby towns devastated by extremely high gusts. Celia was a true “wind event”—and one of the rare major hurricanes to deliver its best shot right to the heart of a major American city.

At the time, Celia was the costliest hurricane in TX history, and it remained so until Alicia 1983.

Pre-landfall Intensification

The cyclone’s pre-landfall intensification was not anticipated. The central pressure dropped a whopping 43 mb in 15 hrs—from 988 mb just 250 mi off the coast to 945 mb at landfall.

This qualifies as “explosive deepening” (defined as a drop of at least 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hrs).

Landfall Point, Track, & Lowest Pressure

The landfall point was just N of Corpus Christi—and I estimate it to be very close to Port Aransas, at the N side of the entrance to Corpus Christi Bay (see map—red marker “A”).

“Hurricane Climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States” indicates a landfall point of 27.7N 97.1W, but this seems too far S. Surface obs strongly suggest the center moved along the N shore of the Bay. All of the pressure readings below 955 mb and all of the reports of lulls (the eye) came from the towns N of the Bay—marked on the map:

• Aransas Pass: 949 mb, calm 30 mins
  
• Ingleside: 945 mb, --
  
• Gregory: 952 mb, calm 30 mins (1530 – 1600 CST)
  
• Portland: -- mb, dead calm 30 mins
  
• Taft: 952 mb, --
  
• Odem: -- mb, calm 15 mins
  

Given this, 27.8N 97.1W would seem the best estimate for the landfall point. (This value also conforms better with the 18Z 03 Aug and 00Z 04 Aug HURDAT fixes.)

Winds

Celia’s winds had a violent, explosive quality that is highly unusual for hurricanes—and the cyclone was structurally odd, with the normally weaker left semicircle producing the most extreme conditions. Unfortunately, this left semicircle (the S eyewall) passed squarely over downtown Corpus Christi, with devastating results.

The MWR mentions how sometimes in non-steady-state ‘canes, the isotach max and heaviest convection migrate cyclonically around the center. This was what happened with Celia, so that:

to the north, there was a break in the eye wall; and very little rain fell. South of the hurricane center, in the region of heaviest convection, spectacular damage occurred from a cluster of high-energy winds of short duration that raked across the residential and business areas of the city from west to east within a period of less than 0.5 hr.

Different eyewitnesses across Corpus Christi reported similar experiences: winds were sustained for several minutes at 60-70 kt when suddenly a tremendous gust exploded “like a rocket shell”, producing nearly all of the destruction in less than a minute. As per the NHC Preliminary Report, stopped electric clocks across the city suggest these blasts all happened within 15 minutes of each other.

The aftereffects appeared to be tornado damage, but careful inspection showed it wasn’t. As per the MWR:

These high-energy wind bursts produced streaky damage across the city of Corpus Christi with debris from the most heavily damaged structures being carried, in some instances, more than 1,000 yd downwind without evidence of any rotary character associated with the transport. Between these long streaks of major damage, there were areas of only minor damage, confined mostly to trees and ornamentals.

Dr. Fujita mapped the F1/F2 damage, based on aerial photography by NASA and R.H. Simpson—although it should be noted that the damage ranged higher than F2. As per the NWS in Corpus Christi, “As a reference to the Fujita scale for tornado damage and wind speeds, widespread EF2 damage occurred across the Coastal Bend with pockets of EF4 damage.”

Several stations reported winds well over 100 kt, with the highest being the Corpus Christi WSO (at the airport—see map), which measured 109 kt SW gusting to a whopping 140 kt! (This is one of the highest wind readings from an official reporting station in the USA during the modern era that I'm aware of.) Other peak values were:

• Aransas Pass: 113 kt NNE
  
• Port Aransas Coast Guard: 90 kt NNE G 110 kt
  
• Gregory: 111 kt NNW G 120 kt (80 ft)
  

(Unless noted, height and reliability of these readings is unknown—however, they appear in NHC and NWS official reports.)

The wind field was not large. Extreme winds were confined to the immediate Corpus Christi Bay area, and the “Hurricane Climatology” paper estimates a RMW of only 9 n mi-- quite narrow.

Damage

Wind damage was very heavy. In Corpus Christi, close to 90% of the businesses and 70% of the homes were damaged, and in Aransas Pass, half the structures were severely damaged. Almost 9,000 homes were destroyed in TX. Excerpts from the NHC’s Preliminary Report capture some vivid anecdotes:

• 
  
• A frightening evidence of wind forces involved was at the Woolco Shopping Center on South Staples Street. This new center, opened in July, was apparently of fine construction and was totally destroyed. The principal wall of the structure, about 18’ high, running approximately 50 yards in length, collapsed and the roof fell in. This main wall, with brick facing, was made of poured concrete with heavy steel reinforced rods. This wall was not simply blown over or blown in, but rather was torn in giant sections and displaced outward from the building. There was no evidence of an explosion.
  
• In the Corpus Christi business district several tall buildings, some of whose exterior was faced mostly with glass, suffered heavily due to broken glass. In some buildings not a single pane of glass was left unbroken above the first two floors.
  
• At Corpus Christi Airport two hangers [sic] heavily constructed with I-beams and steel trusses were totally destroyed with the heavy beams twisted and mangled in unbelievable fashion.
  
• Celia provided a most dramatic example of what can happen to a trailer camp. Just northeast of the airport several hundred mobile homes, many of them of new modern design, were mangled and completely destroyed as if by a meat grinder with the debris being carried hundreds of yards eastward from the park.
  

See pics at the end of this post.

Intensity Discussion & Verdict

Celia’s central pressure at landfall is accepted as 945 mb.

As per Andrew Hagen, reanalysis research uses pressure-wind relationship values derived by Brown et al. (2006), which are based on a “large sample size of aircraft data from 1998-2005.” Based on the Brown values, a strengthening 945-mb hurricane between 25N and 35N should have a max sustained wind of 115 kt. Keep in mind, Brown does not distinguish between slow and fast intensification—therefore, I would tend to view the 115 kt as a conservative value for Celia, which was explosively deepening.

Next, there is the RMW. By all accounts, Celia was a small cyclone. The RMW value of 9 n mi is just over half the climatological norm of 17 n mi. As per Hagen: “Landsea et al. (2008) states that for landfalling U.S. tropical storms and hurricanes for which the RMW is significantly smaller (>50%) than the climatological value, 10 kt should be added to the pressure-wind relationship.” Since Celia’s RMW was a little larger than 50% of the climatological value, erring on the conservative side suggests the addition of 5 kt to the standard pressure-wind value.

This yields a wind of 120 kt—and that is my estimate for Celia’s landfall intensity in TX.

Numerical/theoretical analysis aside, the impressive surface observations at official reporting stations plus the extremely heavy wind damage in the core region—which goes well beyond what we’ve seen in Cat-3 landfalls—supports the conclusion that Celia was a Cat 4.

Damage Pics

Sources

Monthly Weather Review – April 1971: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1970 (R.H. Simpson & Joseph M. Pelissier)

NHC: Preliminary Report Celia

NOAA: Hurricane Climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States – NOAA Technical Report NWS 38 – April 1987 (Ho, Su, Hanevich, Smith, Richards)

NWS Corpus Christi: Hurricane Celia (Tim Tinsley)

A REANALYSIS OF THE 1944-1953 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS- THE FIRST DECADE OF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE (Andrew B. Hagen)

[Ed Lizard]

Nice summary.

BTW, HEB picture, HEB is a supermarket started by Henry E Butt. My wife will pick up their sushi and sake sometimes for an in home dining treat. Not restaurant quality (and Texas restaurants don't compare to sushi houses with genuine sushi cooks like I enjoyed in Cali). Texas sushi places will use local ingredients like crawfish and jalapenos.

HEB has some real high end stores, our friends in San Antonio call the HEB "Gucci B" on de Zavala. Caviar and a beer aisle hundreds of feet long with every international brand possible.

Still commercials for lawyers who will sue Texas Windstorm Insurance for refusing claims based on water, instead of wind, damage for Ike. The Mostyn Law Firm, "Ike Attorney.com" most visible.

TWIA formed in 1971 when most insurance companies refused new policies for coastal Texas following the Celia claims.

[Ed Lizard]

My feelings are kind of like the ethnicity thread...hot is hot and at some point they're ****able, but by default I am more attracted to landfalls in FL and the Caribbean.

Best Discovery Channel type/U-Tubes for living hurricanes vicariously come from Florida. No video from Texas matches Charley.

[Srain]

Excellent Analysis Josh. The damage in DT Corpus was certainly a strong suggestion of CAT 4 status. Even locations such as Rock Port saw significant damage. Ed, perhaps you should qualify your postings to something you do know about TX Hurricanes since your limited experiences since you've lived here do not match those of us that have lived here much longer and have that experience to back up our thoughts. I assure you that a Carla type cyclone is one I would not want to experience again. Sorry that youtube wasn't around in those days of powerful TX Hurricanes of the past.

[Ed Lizard]

Excellent Analysis Josh. The damage in DT Corpus was certainly a strong suggestion of CAT 4 status. Even locations such as Rock Port saw significant damage. Ed, perhaps you should qualify your postings to something you do know about TX Hurricanes since your limited experiences since you've lived here do not match those of us that have lived here much longer and have that experience to back up our thoughts. I assure you that a Carla type cyclone is one I would not want to experience again. Sorry that youtube wasn't around in those days of powerful TX Hurricanes of the past.

It has nothing to do with moving to Texas in thirty years ago, I'm 46, Carla was before I was born, and I would have been far too young to have an appreciation of Celia. I don't have the full appreciation of the Labor Day Storm, Galveston, Lake Okeechobee or the 1938 storm either. They hadn't invented U-Tube for those yet either.

Heck, Ike was just a Cat 2, and it sounded like rocks were bouncing off the walls. I really don't need a Cat 3 or Cat 4 in my backyard. If I never have a FEMA tarp on my roof or live in a trailer, I'll be just fine with it.

[HurricaneJosh]

Nice summary.

...

TWIA formed in 1971 when most insurance companies refused new policies for coastal Texas following the Celia claims.

Thanks! Interesting Re: the TWIA. Celia was a hugely costly storm in that day.

Excellent Analysis Josh. The damage in DT Corpus was certainly a strong suggestion of CAT 4 status. Even locations such as Rock Port saw significant damage.

Thanks, Steve! I can imagine Rockport got hammered pretty good, even thought it was probably just outside of the RMW. (Where were you living at the time, by the way?)

It has nothing to do with moving to Texas in thirty years ago, I'm 46, Carla was before I was born, and I would have been far too young to have an appreciation of Celia. I don't have the full appreciation of the Labor Day Storm, Galveston, Lake Okeechobee or the 1938 storm either. They hadn't invented U-Tube for those yet either.

Heck, Ike was just a Cat 2, and it sounded like rocks were bouncing off the walls. I really don't need a Cat 3 or Cat 4 in my backyard. If I never have a FEMA tarp on my roof or live in a trailer, I'll be just fine with it.

I think Steve was reacting to how you've been dissing TX cyclones in general-- first suggest Carla "wasn't all that" and then jumping on kush's anti-TX bandwagon.

[k***]

People from TX are really overprotective of their storms...reminds me of people from New England.

[HurricaneJosh]

People from TX are really overprotective of their storms...reminds me of people from New England.

Well, I'm not Texan and I'm a huge proponent of some of the Texas biggies. Celia is in my Top 5-- a yummy cyclone.

[k***]

Well, I'm not Texan and I'm a huge proponent of some of the Texas biggies. Celia is in my Top 5-- a yummy cyclone.

Top 5 what? U.S. landfalls?

[HurricaneJosh]

Top 5 what? U.S. landfalls?

Favorite cyclones-- ones that I just find really yummy and sexy and interesting.

[Srain]

Thanks, Steve! I can imagine Rockport got hammered pretty good, even thought it was probably just outside of the RMW. (Where were you living at the time, by the way?)

I was in SE TX, but had family interests in the Corpus area.

People from TX are really overprotective of their storms...reminds me of people from New England.

Not protective, from my stand point. Our history (TX) is replete with some major storms that helped shape the population centers to what they are today.

[Ed Lizard]

People from TX are really overprotective of their storms...reminds me of people from New England.

I watched TWC coverage of Bob back two decades ago, and wasn't all that impressed, and said so on some forum, and crikey, you'd have thought I said Andrew was just a Summer gale...

Or Tom Brady needed a haircut.

[Ed Lizard]

I didn't diss Carla, I just said I thought the pressure wasn't super-mondo low for such an expansive windfield. And I was trying to guess what storm people who always talk about "The Carla Cradle" would be looking at.

And I am very appreciative of a TC with an (E?)F-4 tornado during landfall. That might set some kind of record.

[Juliancolton]

And I am very appreciative of a TC with an (E?)F-4 tornado during landfall. That might set some kind of record.

Yeah, it would be the strongest TC-spawned tornado I've ever heard of, although with such a tight and severe circulation I have no problem believing it.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, it would be the strongest TC-spawned tornado I've ever heard of, although with such a tight and severe circulation I have no problem believing it.

I don't think there's any relationship between the severity of a hurricane and the tornadoes it spawns. Most significant tornado activity in a tropical cyclone tends to happen in the outer bands, not in the core.

[HurricaneJosh]

Not protective, from my stand point. Our history (TX) is replete with some major storms that helped shape the population centers to what they are today.

Yeah, what I find most amazing is that if it weren't for the Indianola 1886 cyclone, Victoria would the the biggest population center in TX-- not Houston.

TX history is riddled with all kinds of big, juicy 'cane events. It's had everything but a Cat 5.

[am19psu]

I don't think there's any relationship between the severity of a hurricane and the tornadoes it spawns. Most significant tornado activity in a tropical cyclone tends to happen in the outer bands, not in the core.

It turns out that SHIPS UL Divergence field explains the most variance in the number of tornadoes caused by a landfall hurricane (at least that we know of so far). I've never seen any study linking strength of tornadoes and any attributes of a landfall hurricane. I'd imagine it's pretty rare to get monster tornadoes, since theoretically, the atmosphere should be close to moist neutral, limiting any major instability.