Kaner587 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hello all... 5 year lurker at eastern so not technically new but I do have a weenie question for y'all... Can anyone tell me what the ratios should be like? Thanks! expect 10-1 but depending on snow growth (from ORH in NE thread) ratios could definitely be a lot higher, maybe on the order of 12-13-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minerva Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 expect 10-1 but depending on snow growth (from ORH in NE thread) ratios could definitely be a lot higher, maybe on the order of 12-13-1 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 "Winter Weather Watch" and "Heavy Snow Watch"? Didn't they retire those products years ago? Maybe it's a Canadian thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings just went up from mount holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well the 18z nam is just as sexy as the 12z.. I can't say I have any faith in it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings just went up from mount holly 100% Heavy snow TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 4 inches! I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings just went up from mount holly Weird how Montco Lehigh Bucks etc still in Winter storm watch, while counties north in NJ are under the warning, are they still reviewing the start time or warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Upton's 332pm update bumped my totals from 6-12 to 8-14. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Weird how Montco Lehigh Bucks etc still in Winter storm watch, while counties north in NJ are under the warning, are they still reviewing the start time or warning criteria? Here is the strange thing. Read the Watch / Warning dialogues. For the watches where LEhigh, Montco, Bucks, etc. it says "Snow: 4 inches". Yet in the forecast discussion is says 3 - 7 inches. For anyone under the Warning criteria (example, Huntderdon County) the Warning dialogue says "6 - 9 inches". Yet their forecast discussion also says 3 - 7 inches. I'm a little puzzled on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the strange thing. Read the Watch / Warning dialogues. For the watches where LEhigh, Montco, Bucks, etc. it says "Snow: 4 inches". Yet in the forecast discussion is says 3 - 7 inches. For anyone under the Warning criteria (example, Huntderdon County) the Warning dialogue says "6 - 9 inches". Yet their forecast discussion also says 3 - 7 inches. I'm a little puzzled on that. I believe it is 6 inches, so that amount falls within their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I believe it is 6 inches, so that amount falls within their range. No, it says 6 - 9 inches for the Warning dialogue. 4 inches for the Watch dialogue. But it appears they JUST changed it to 3 - 5" for those Delaware river west; leaving 3 - 7 inches anyone east of the Delaware. So my logic is not valid anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I really think this is going to be bigger than currently forecasted. The upper level model forecasts only keep improving, things are shifting slightly more west on all models. It's still 36 hrs out and things have changed for the better in that time frame (i.e. boxing day blizzard). Historically, when a storm is forecasted east in these set up they end up more west too. I dunno, my hunch is this one is going to be another big deal, not just a moderate type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 there will be mass weenie suicide watch for everyone in the LV through the WV into Wilkes-Scranton if this fails to produce 4 inches.. Seriously, enough is enough with these coastals! Ok, in all serious, enjoy you coastal and NJ folks! At this point another foot and change in monmouth county will be comical Can't wait to read Earthlight's play by play storm analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is Bloomberg ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I really think this is going to be bigger than currently forecasted. The upper level model forecasts only keep improving, things are shifting slightly more west on all models. It's still 36 hrs out and things have changed for the better in that time frame (i.e. boxing day blizzard). Historically, when a storm is forecasted east in these set up they end up more west too. I dunno, my hunch is this one is going to be another big deal, not just a moderate type of event. I would normally agree with you, but so far this season things have been spot on. Could it be bigger? Yes, but if it is going to be, it will probably be bigger for NE NJ. LI, SW NE. Those of is North and West of i95 usually benefit and gain very, very little with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 there will be mass weenie suicide watch for everyone in the LV through the WV into Wilkes-Scranton if this fails to produce 4 inches.. Seriously, enough is enough with these coastals! Ok, in all serious, enjoy you coastal and NJ folks! At this point another foot and change in monmouth county will be comical Can't wait to read Earthlight's play by play storm analysis I think someone in the Lehigh Valley should do a pbp video. That would be comical. and I do not think anyone in the LV will hit 4" although I surely hope we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the 0z runs will come in stronger and wetter because all the models today had h5 closed off. Nam,SREF,ETA,Euro ensembles and GGEM ensembles shifted west and H5 looks beautiful. That tells me this storm will be stronger than what is currenty depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 there will be mass weenie suicide watch for everyone in the LV through the WV into Wilkes-Scranton if this fails to produce 4 inches.. Seriously, enough is enough with these coastals! Ok, in all serious, enjoy you coastal and NJ folks! At this point another foot and change in monmouth county will be comical Can't wait to read Earthlight's play by play storm analysis yeah but I can see the region also picking up 4-8 Sat-Tue........high ratios could yield more..... Not sure about the timing for Monday or Tuesday.......will check tonight 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 but what are you going for eastern Monmouth County right on the shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 but what are you going for eastern Monmouth County right on the shore? 7-11 inches would be my call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think someone in the Lehigh Valley should do a pbp video. That would be comical. and I do not think anyone in the LV will hit 4" although I surely hope we do. windblown flurries through cloudy skies with the sun visible to the west FTW I have not had a chance to look at any models, im camped outside the Luzerne County Court House covering a murder trial live at 5 and 6 tonight..once I get home and pour my bloody mary I hope to see some miracle for this area. Not counting on it! OK--gotta get make up on folks. West baby West!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I would normally agree with you, but so far this season things have been spot on. Could it be bigger? Yes, but if it is going to be, it will probably be bigger for NE NJ. LI, SW NE. Those of is North and West of i95 usually benefit and gain very, very little with these setups. Hmm, I don't know what you mean by this season being spot on? The boxing day blizzard was not spot on at all in this time frame. It changed radically in such a small matter of time. Yes, this storm is definitely different with it's set up, but I don't think that means the solution we have now is any more likely to be the final solution than the boxing day blizzard. And I agree, those places NE NJ, LI etc may get the most amounts, but I still think the whole NYC area will get more than what we are seeing now on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mt. Holly has 3-5"+ for my area, but if the GFS comes in like the NAM, those amounts may rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Rich Hoffman has 6-16 inches for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmm, I don't know what you mean by this season being spot on? The boxing day blizzard was not spot on at all in this time frame. It changed radically in such a small matter of time. Yes, this storm is definitely different with it's set up, but I don't think that means the solution we have now is any more likely to be the final solution than the boxing day blizzard. And I agree, those places NE NJ, LI etc may get the most amounts, but I still think the whole NYC area will get more than what we are seeing now on models. Sorry for not clarifying. What I meant by spot on - meaning places South-Southeast, North-Northeast and East are the snow jackpot zones for this seasons. Anywhere west of those areas from i95/delaware river will be seeing crumbs compared to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 TWC . They are usually conservative about amounts. I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Rich Hoffman has 6-16 inches for the NYC area You get News 12 Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You get News 12 Long Island? Yes. He is also my friend on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 has DT updated his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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