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The NYC Banter Thread


Rib

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From Mt. Holly AFD

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY

RUNNING 1 TO 3 HOURS AHEAD THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND

TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF BOUNDARY LAYERED ROOTED CONVECTION TO

FORM. AT THIS DISTANCE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE

WOULD BE ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE

GREATER. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY TYPE

OF CONVECTIVE EVENT...AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS NORTHEAST ON THE

INSTABILITY RIBBON BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1500 UTC TUESDAY.

THE CONVECTION ITSELF SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMPACT...WITH LOW TOPS AND

POTENTIALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING...AS TOPS MAY NOT REACH

MINUS 20 CELSIUS...ALLOWING FOR CHARGE SEPARATION TO BEGIN. AS

SUCH...THE FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY HAVE LITTLE LIGHTNING.

HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE TO ACCESS THE STRONG LOW TO

MID LEVEL WINDS (BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS IS FORECAST IN THE

TIMEFRAME OUTLINED ABOVE)...AND A LINE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS

IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

They specifically state the best chance is southwest of their area, and their CWA is already southwest of our area. I think you are reaching, the parameters are not there for severe weather if you ask me...not buying it.

:lmao:

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Dec 2010 was a really powerful storm though. I would put it up there with 1996.

Yes I agree for NYC Metro, without a doubt.

But 96 is in another class when it comes to precip shield and tremendous expansive coverage...

Not to mention..... most widespread 30+ of snow all over the place.

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I can't even be jealous that it's 84 in D.C. because it feels great outside.

Plus in a matter of weeks it'll be in the 80's again here.

I wish it was in the 20's.

Yes I agree for NYC Metro, without a doubt.

But 96 is in another class when it comes to precip shield and tremendous expansive coverage...

Not to mention..... most widespread 30+ of snow all over the place.

December blizzard takes the cake because I don't remember the 96 blizzard.

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