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The NYC Banter Thread


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Euro is no longer the king, but every model is still awful. If there wasnt snow involved they would have nailed it down 7 days ago..Something with winter storms and the -NAO really ***** up the models.

Comma head precip is tough for models to figure out.

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This brings up a really good point and a further question.... how do we define what a "snow town" is? How much does the average annual snowfall need to be to have that honor bestowed upon a town? I say it's somewhere between 40-60"....although I'm uncertain what the lower limit I would place on it would be..... probably either 50" or 60"

For me, I define a snow town as somewhere I can go in the winter (DJF) and essentially be guaranteed snow either on the ground or in the air. Cities with 40-60" snowfall usually don't pass that test, Hartford, Boston, Chicago, etc, as usually there's a large chunk of the winter with either no snow on the ground or nothing falling. I think you've got to go into the 60"+ areas for snow town country -- and that basically includes the northern mid west, near the Great Lakes, higher terrain of PA down to the spine of the appalachains, through the northern poconos, clipping High Point NJ, northeastward through ORH into southern Maine.

40-60" is usually snow but falls short of the honorable snow town. Our region, 20-40", is too variable to be considered anything, one year 70" then the next 8". And below 20" fuggetabouit.

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For me, I define a snow town as somewhere I can go in the winter (DJF) and essentially be guaranteed snow either on the ground or in the air. Cities with 40-60" snowfall usually don't pass that test, Hartford, Boston, Chicago, etc, as usually there's a large chunk of the winter with either no snow on the ground or nothing falling. I think you've got to go into the 60"+ areas for snow town country -- and that basically includes the northern mid west, near the Great Lakes, higher terrain of PA down to the spine of the appalachains, through the northern poconos, clipping High Point NJ, northeastward through ORH into southern Maine.

40-60" is usually snow but falls short of the honorable snow town. Our region, 20-40", is too variable to be considered anything, one year 70" then the next 8". And below 20" fuggetabouit.

Yes, agree with this map. Areas that are especially snowy are the Laurel Mountains of NW PA (150-200"), the Northern Greens in VT (200-350"), the Tug Hill Plateau in Upstate NY(200-300"), and the Keeweenau Peninsula (200-300")....great places to visit.

thats true, but i think it has more to do with the low pressure deepening later and maturing later than what the models were showing 2-3 days ago.

I think the models are often prone to developing the mid-levels too early in blossoming Nor'easters.

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Besides that, there is the track to consider as well.

I think the track is OK for NYC but the low pressure is just not explosive enough. 12z ECM only shows us getting .25" QPF because the mid levels and associated CCB don't develop until the storm passes into New England. This is a general problem with the models in that they develop the mid-levels too early..

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I think the track is OK for NYC but the low pressure is just not explosive enough. 12z ECM only shows us getting .25" QPF because the mid levels and associated CCB don't develop until the storm passes into New England. This is a general problem with the models in that they develop the mid-levels too early..

That's part of it too, but what I'm saying is that in a typical storm, especially several days out, the models are gonna have trouble with the exact track and that exact track will matter a lot in the end.

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Guess what storm this was from.:snowman:

Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow before 5am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Very windy, with a north wind between 33 and 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

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