Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Man the sne thread is in shambels. Poor guys don't get any snow and they start eating there own. It's always bad there after a bust...Feb 10th of last year was epic...there's no moderation in that thread-probably b/c alot of them know each other, but not sure that's an excuse--personal attack should be an automatic timeout or 5 post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Man the sne thread is in shambels. Poor guys don't get any snow and they start eating there own. Well whatever. There was no reason to assume a significant or even moderate snow would occur in SNE. Most models were well south with the precipitation, consistently south of SNE. Although they had the colder temps, it was evident the moisture up north would be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I think if they learn that it does not snow there 365 days of the year and not every storm will bump north they will be better off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 There hasn't been many major snowstorms after March 8th in NYC...There is the blizzard on March 13th 1888...March 16th 1896...March 8th 1941...March 19th 1956...March 21st 1958...March 13th 1993...April 2nd 1915...April 13th 1875...I never give up hope this time of year...I'll give it up after mid April... March 8th 1941... http://world.nycsubw...erl/show?117692 Why did you not mention April 6, 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I learned alot from this storm. The first being that even when just about every model shows a snow storm 12 hours out, there is still a good chance it won't occur. I stil think that if we had seen the type of snowfall rates that the NAM had been advertising through its 12z run yesterday, it would have made a big difference in accumulations. I don't like the way the threat for next week is evolving. Winter is most likely breathing its final breaths until December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I learned alot from this storm. The first being that even when just about every model shows a snow storm 12 hours out, there is still a good chance it won't occur. I stil think that if we had seen the type of snowfall rates that the NAM had been advertising through its 12z run yesterday, it would have made a big difference in accumulations. I don't like the way the threat for next week is evolving. Winter is most likely breathing its final breaths until December. Yup it sure appears that way. Feeling very melancoly about that fact. I will remember this winter for many years to come. It will forever have a special place in my heart, not quite as special of a place as 1995-1996 but defintiely pretty close to it. The good thing is I have video footage of the Boxing Day storm and the 1/26-27 storm which I do not have for any of the 1995-96 snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well whatever. There was no reason to assume a significant or even moderate snow would occur in SNE. Most models were well south with the precipitation, consistently south of SNE. Although they had the colder temps, it was evident the moisture up north would be limited. Not really...the models were much farther north with the low than the actual track, especially the GFS. 6z GFS yesterday had the low exiting off NJ whereas in reality it exited off Virginia. You can't expect them not to be disappointed. Even here, I only got about .3" QPF instead of the .75" modeled, very poor storm overall for northern areas that actually had the temperature profile to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 This storm had high bust potential as discussed by more of the experienced posters on here. I never got excited but i still saw about 2-3" total along with thundersleet. The WAA precip was alarming that it did not want to get much north of the NY/NJ border. GFS was awful until 18z yesterday when it finally went way south. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Storm produced widespread 1"-3" amounts with isolated spots of 5"-9". Thats pretty damn good for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I learned alot from this storm. The first being that even when just about every model shows a snow storm 12 hours out, there is still a good chance it won't occur. I stil think that if we had seen the type of snowfall rates that the NAM had been advertising through its 12z run yesterday, it would have made a big difference in accumulations. I don't like the way the threat for next week is evolving. Winter is most likely breathing its final breaths until December. I've found that storms that are getting sheared south and east tend to have over done QPF on the models on the northern edge....in reality, the models have a hard time picking up on the level of shear forcing it south and east in the first place... 2/5/10 is another example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I've found that storms that are getting sheared south and east tend to have over done QPF on the models on the northern edge....in reality, the models have a hard time picking up on the level of shear forcing it south and east in the first place... 2/5/10 is another example... February 6 2010 was all because of the strong PV lobe near Maine, a bit different example; but you are right about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Some parts of the mid-atlantic are going to see a snowstorm. I wonder if a lot of records are going to be broken if the models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not really...the models were much farther north with the low than the actual track, especially the GFS. 6z GFS yesterday had the low exiting off NJ whereas in reality it exited off Virginia. You can't expect them not to be disappointed. Even here, I only got about .3" QPF instead of the .75" modeled, very poor storm overall for northern areas that actually had the temperature profile to stay all snow. Yeah, and down here in north-central Jersey it was the opposite. We got close to an inch of QPF, but ended up with only a couple inches of snow because temps were a big problem. While you had the temps, but not the QPF. It just didn't want to come together. Still, it's hard to complain about a couple inches in late March. Any snow this time of year is a nice bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Some parts of the mid-atlantic are going to see a snowstorm. I wonder if a lot of records are going to be broken if the models are correct. yeah 18z NAM big hit for DC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Yeah, and down here in north-central Jersey it was the opposite. We got close to an inch of QPF, but ended up with only a couple inches of snow because temps were a big problem. While you had the temps, but not the QPF. It just didn't want to come together. Still, it's hard to complain about a couple inches in late March. Any snow this time of year is a nice bonus. Yeah it's hard to get the combination of both cold temps and excellent QPF in an overrunning scenario during late March; that being said, if either the WAA snows had lifted a bit north or the coastal had developed more, we would have gotten a lot more snow. I got down to around 28F with snow last night and was around 33/34 during the afternoon yesterday, so a steady band of precipitation would have accumulated at any point of the event. I didn't even see any 20+ dbz returns (green) until the final band pushed through last night with some bursts of moderate snow. There's no way Westchester is going to get a ton of snow from a low exiting off Central VA on a west--->east track, regardless of the season. The models were both incorrect in having the primary further north, and incorrect in developing a CCB attached to the coastal with precip wrapping around to the NW side, which didn't happen. This storm was a serious bust in SNE where a general 3-5" was forecasted, and most areas didn't even see a flake. That being said, I can't be too upset...we've had 70" of snow this winter, just got two snowfalls in late March, and are watching a couple more threats. This is after recording 68" last year with a 26" blizzard on 2/25. It's been an incredible run for the NYC metro, and particularly Westchester, and we should all be grateful for how many wonderful events we have tracked and witnessed instead of complaining. LONG LIVE WINTER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 yeah 18z NAM big hit for DC south RIC north gets absolutely crushed at 66....heavy snow with 850s near -10C. NAM may be too amplified, however. Here is the frame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 after getting 68.5" of snow this season, one has to be an idiot to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 after getting 68.5" of snow this season, one has to be an idiot to complain. 71.3" here, can't complain one bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 RIC north gets absolutely crushed at 66....heavy snow with 850s near -10C. NAM may be too amplified, however. Here is the frame: the setup definately favors them and not us with the strong confluence and PV ala 2010. The NAM is probly to amp'd up as it has no support and there doesnt seem to be too much 500mb amplification to create those hefty QPF amounts...crazy how we are dealing with suppression in late march tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 71.3" here, can't complain one bit! you jackpotted the dec 26th storm with 30"+..Lucky, i only got 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 you jackpotted the dec 26th storm with 30"+..Lucky, i only got 2 feet Lol, I don't think 2 feet should ever be followed by a thumbs down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the setup definately favors them and not us with the strong confluence and PV ala 2010. The NAM is probly to amp'd up as it has no support and there doesnt seem to be too much 500mb amplification to create those hefty QPF amounts...crazy how we are dealing with suppression in late march tho. The shortwave is pretty vigorous but gets sheared quickly by the dominant PV over the Canadian Maritimes. GFS does show about .5" QPF for West Virginia and .25"+ for Northern Virginia, probably all snow especially for places with some elevation. 850s are very cold for late March in the Mid-Atlantic. This storm does have the potential to trend north if the PV ends up a bit more towards the traditional 50/50 position, so will have to be watched, but at the moment the synoptics do not favor a large Nor-easter. It's pretty ironic that we might watch the DC suburbs get 2-4" snow in late March while we whiff, just another blow after the disaster that was 2/5. Can't complain though as NYC has had the best of both worlds, getting in on the 09-10 Mid-Atlantic winter and the 10-11 New England winter. We've been in the perfect spot for heavy snows both years and have also enjoyed long stretches of consistent cold, not like the winters I remember growing up in the 90s where it seemed to be 55F every other day and we couldn't hold a snowpack for a week in Mid-January. Oh, how the tide has turned! you jackpotted the dec 26th storm with 30"+..Lucky, i only got 2 feet I only got 13" in Boxing Day but still have 69.5" on the season, pretty amazing. I made up for the lower totals there by doing very well in 1/12 (14.5") and 2/21 (8"), and also by picking up some smaller snowfalls in marginal/banded events like 12/14 and 1/18 that probably didn't affect people farther south. This is the second year in a row with around 70" here, and I'm about 7 miles from the Bronx border at 340' elevation. It might be a long time before we see back-to-back 70" winters, or at least until next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 you jackpotted the dec 26th storm with 30"+..Lucky, i only got 2 feet I personally believe parts of New Jersey undermeaured... I had 24" but that was an estimate due to the wind and drifting. I had 20.5" at 11 AM, storm was way done by then and the end of my driverway had 33". I say the total was closer to 27". surpassing JAN 1996 or tying it at least. Then again JAN 1996 was undermeasured also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 I personally believe parts of New Jersey undermeaured... I had 24" but that was an estimate due to the wind and drifting. I had 20.5" at 11 AM, storm was way done by then and the end of my driverway had 33". I say the total was closer to 27". surpassing JAN 1996 or tying it at least. Then again JAN 1996 was undermeasured also... i honestly didnt measure, couldnt measure actually lol..The town right next to me, Lyndhurst, measured 27", and they said my town only had 23". I dont think anyone knew what they were doing that day. It was epic, i saw a 10 foot drift that was a block long in union city when i went to go bury out my grandma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 i honestly didnt measure, couldnt measure actually lol..The town right next to me, Lyndhurst, measured 27", and they said my town only had 23". I dont think anyone knew what they were doing that day. It was epic, i saw a 10 foot drift that was a block long in union city when i went to go bury out my grandma Acutally, Lyndhurst got 29". So I think you got 25-28". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 71.3" here, can't complain one bit! 48'' at home in Bridgewater, can I complain? you jackpotted the dec 26th storm with 30"+..Lucky, i only got 2 feet And I got 9 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 48'' at home in Bridgewater, can I complain? And I got 9 inches! Somerset-Middlesex counties have been a screwzone the last few winters. 50 inches obviously is still a great winter, and I'm very happy. But it would be nice to be a jackpot area for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Somerset-Middlesex counties have been a screwzone the last few winters. 50 inches obviously is still a great winter, and I'm very happy. But it would be nice to be a jackpot area for once. Middlesex county got pummeled by the 12/26 storm....I wouldn't really call it a screwzone anymore. But Hunterdon and Somerset counties have definitely been in a screwzone the last few winters. 46'' last winter and 48'' this winter is pretty pathetic considering how much so many other areas have gotten. It seems like the worst of almost every storm has missed us to either the south (12/19/09 and 2/5/10), east (12/26/10), or north (2/26/10). 3/2/09 screwed our area over as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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