LVblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd wait for the 12 GFS & ECMWF before losing those visions of sugar plums and CCBs. GFS says yes, I think the Euro will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this thing has more bust potential then pam anderson quote of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why am I hearing the words Valentines Day 2007 in my head over and over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Duck folks, weenie throwing Pennsylvanians about to go nuts, lol. Plenty of time for more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i'm still liking the odds for primarily wet snow north & west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Duck folks, weenie throwing Pennsylvanians about to go nuts, lol. Plenty of time for more changes. There is more QPF before that time and most of it is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is more QPF before that time and most of it is snow. Would that .25.-5 from the hr. 60 panel be snow? It's close with 850s and freezing, but as the low is strengthening then, it could be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Would that .25.-5 from the hr. 60 panel be snow? It's close with 850s and freezing, but as the low is strengthening then, it could be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Would that .25.-5 from the hr. 60 panel be snow? It's close with 850s and freezing, but as the low is strengthening then, it could be snow. I think that 60 panel (54-60 QPF) would be the transition time from west to east across southeastern PA (between 18z-0z). So, maybe 1/2 that would be snow, followed by the additional 60-72 hour (0.15"-.30"). That's going strictly off the GFS in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what is the next real threat after this...other than the light snow for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what is the next real threat after this...other than the light snow for the weekend Are you actually asking for an accurate weather forecast 8 days out? That's like going to Burger King and ordering steak au poivre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are you actually asking for an accurate weather forecast 8 days out? That's like going to Burger King and ordering steak au poivre. They're just asking for the general time frame of the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just came in here to say that being ~10 miles east of Phila. is a tough place to understand what's going to happen. History tells me that we'll stay rain longer than most people prog and it will be a let down, but there's the other side of me (and there has been some analysis that goes this way) that thinks the warming may be over done and if it does make it to MBY, it will be short lived at best. The last few days have been frustrating as I am sure they have been for many. I am just getting fatigued trying to wrap my brain around all this data and all the opinion in our disco thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just came in here to say that being ~10 miles east of Phila. is a tough place to understand what's going to happen. History tells me that we'll stay rain longer than most people prog and it will be a let down, but there's the other side of me (and there has been some analysis that goes this way) that thinks the warming may be over done and if it does make it to MBY, it will be short lived at best. The last few days have been frustrating as I am sure they have been for many. I am just getting fatigued trying to wrap my brain around all this data and all the opinion in our disco thread... I'm having ahard time too getting a grip on the variables (live about 10 miles north of TTN). It seems that the faster the wind shifts out of the ESE and the CCB forms the more precip. is frozen. But I really can't tell when that will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we're all in the same boat with grasping the variables in this one. I have very little idea of what to expect here in King of Prussia. Maybe some rain & sleet on Wednesday morning eventually yielding to a heavy, wet 6"+ snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The bay between my barrier island and Long Island itself is definitely freezing over. This morning there was definitely a thin layer of slush/ice covering much of the bay, which is really cool. The last time I really remember this happening is Jan 2004, when we had a few stretches of very cold weather like this, and the ice actually became fairly thick in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we're all in the same boat with grasping the variables in this one. I have very little idea of what to expect here in King of Prussia. Maybe some rain & sleet on Wednesday morning eventually yielding to a heavy, wet 6"+ snowfall? That's what I'm thinking out our way, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we're all in the same boat with grasping the variables in this one. I have very little idea of what to expect here in King of Prussia. Maybe some rain & sleet on Wednesday morning eventually yielding to a heavy, wet 6"+ snowfall? I think for our neck of the woods, if the Euro and GFS are right, its a slushy mix at the onset, followed by a period of wet snow that can put down 3-6" max. before it ends. Obvisously if its a tad colder throughout the storm those totals would like be closer to 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we're all in the same boat with grasping the variables in this one. I have very little idea of what to expect here in King of Prussia. Maybe some rain & sleet on Wednesday morning eventually yielding to a heavy, wet 6"+ snowfall? I don't know about 6". Temps are going to be in the upper 30's tomorrow and Wednesday, then rain, then a change over to heavy wet snow (less than 10:1 ratios?). So even if .5 is frozen, it's going to fall on a wet, relatively warm surface at first. There will be a period of melting before any accumulation. 6"+ would be great, but I'm thinking 1"-3" maybe 2"-4" at the moment? Still plenty of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we're all in the same boat with grasping the variables in this one. I have very little idea of what to expect here in King of Prussia. Maybe some rain & sleet on Wednesday morning eventually yielding to a heavy, wet 6"+ snowfall? It's pretty rare to get that much in basically a wrap around event. But it's possible if the storm tracks a little east of the Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 4-8" for NYC after changeover. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 any info on the weekend clipper-start time/end time-any accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think at LEAST 3-6" inches for here. Models sometimes underdo the cold in these situations. 1-3" seems too low IMO based on the models. Note that in a dynamic system that it can still accumulate with marginal temps. I think if QPF totals are around an inch here, about of 1/4" would be wasted by a sloppy mix. Then its about 3/4" QPF of wet snow. That could be more than 6", but I guess I'm playing the conservative route right now. If I had a gun to my head, I'd put us in the 3-6" zone, with a 6-10" zone just to our northwest up near I-78. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised with 2" or 9". HA!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Matt I forgot which thread I was in and deleted your post Feel free to repost, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here's what I posted: I think at LEAST 3-6" inches for here. Models sometimes underdo the cold in these situations. 1-3" seems too low IMO based on the models. Note that in a dynamic system that it can still accumulate with marginal temps. Parsley: sounds pretty accurate for now. May be 4-8 since the cities were about .25-.5 frozen according to Tom. Things can still trend either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here's what I posted: I think at LEAST 3-6" inches for here. Models sometimes underdo the cold in these situations. 1-3" seems too low IMO based on the models. Note that in a dynamic system that it can still accumulate with marginal temps. Parsley: sounds pretty accurate for now. May be 4-8 since the cities were about .25-.5 frozen according to Tom. Things can still trend either way. It will be an interesting 24 hours, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think peoples heads are about to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This reminds me of most of the classic Winter storms on the 1970s when I lived in Massapequa, looking at the Euro, which I suspect will be close, starts as snow and very quicky mixes with sleet and rain, then mostly rain, then maybe a few flakes at the end which doesn't stick, followed by a freeze which freezes the puddles. I don't know how much of a snow pack there is, mid to upper 30s, even with an inch of rain, if the snow pack is decent, they'll still be some water soaked snow remaining to freeze solid afterwards. Manhattan probably gets worthwhile snow on the end, most of New England does ok, its Long Island that gets screwed. But I still remember the snow to rain storm of January 1978 that mixed with sleet and never changed to rain, and the surprise day off of school. Winter seems better the last ten years back on Long Island than when I lived there. I'm old enough to remember driving to JFK with a lot of snow on the ground for a flight just before Valentines Day with my parents to Disneyland, 1969, I think, but specific storms and dates pre Winter 76-77, memory is hazy. I think 1976 had rain change to snow late Christmas evening, for a technically white Christmas. But I wouldn't bet money on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Land mines and comma heads. Although my brain has passed on, it hurts. You have all done a good job so far with this one. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This reminds me of most of the classic Winter storms on the 1970s when I lived in Massapequa, looking at the Euro, which I suspect will be close, starts as snow and very quicky mixes with sleet and rain, then mostly rain, then maybe a few flakes at the end which doesn't stick, followed by a freeze which freezes the puddles. I don't know how much of a snow pack there is, mid to upper 30s, even with an inch of rain, if the snow pack is decent, they'll still be some water soaked snow remaining to freeze solid afterwards. Manhattan probably gets worthwhile snow on the end, most of New England does ok, its Long Island that gets screwed. But I still remember the snow to rain storm of January 1978 that mixed with sleet and never changed to rain, and the surprise day off of school. Winter seems better the last ten years back on Long Island than when I lived there. I'm old enough to remember driving to JFK with a lot of snow on the ground for a flight just before Valentines Day with my parents to Disneyland, 1969, I think, but specific storms and dates pre Winter 76-77, memory is hazy. I think 1976 had rain change to snow late Christmas evening, for a technically white Christmas. But I wouldn't bet money on that. ahhhh yes Feb 1961 and 1969 both dropped 2 feet of snow at JFK..... our next 20 inch plus storm was Feb 1983 and then Jan 1996 both with 22 inches and finally Feb 2003 which was our biggest with 26 inches at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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