greg ralls Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Since this is just a banter thread, I'll throw out a completely unscientific and random 1st guess for my back yard. King of Prussia will get 8" of snow along with some IP, ZR, RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All I know is that its really cold here right now....I mean I can hear ice crackling in my gutters its so cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All I know is that its really cold here right now....I mean I can hear ice crackling in my gutters its so cold.... It's 12 here...and our heater broke this afternoon, and it fell to the mid-50s inside at one point, but it seems to be working again now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 reminder we can chat banter in real time: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=ipchat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can somebody explain to me why my post keep getting deleted? I just wrote about the nam and how the models perform in certain time frames and how the nam is not good in a certain time frame. I see others bi#$%ing and don't get deleted I didn't ask imby question but I always get deleted crazy! I feel bad because I love weather and love reading and once in a while chimming in. Wow! Sorry for the rant but I had to say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Moderator is being tough in the main potential thread - looking for modela analysis only, not time worn criticisms of the model biases. Looks to me that it could be a slop storm east and close to the Delaware River dividing line, OTS or a xcrapper. How's that for being definitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 AFD from State College this afternoon, They are backing off the big snow idea on their zone with a more easterly track. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR STORM LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM. BIGGEST CHANGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS SLOWING DOWN OF STORM...HOLDING OFF POTENTIAL EFFECTS UNTIL LATER TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE 06Z RUNS THOUGH 12Z RUNS COME BACK IN LINE. BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES...AS CAN BE EXPECTED 3-4 DAYS OUT. OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS STORM HUGGING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH GFS FURTHER EAST. INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER HEADING INTO THIS EVENT...WHICH MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIP TO FAR SE COUNTIES...BUT REMAINDER OF CENTRAL PA SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW - THE TOUGH PART IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH. AGAIN...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO EXIST...LATEST TRACK/TRENDS BRING A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOWFALL TO THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIG SNOW CONTINUING TO BE IN THE EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 :lmao: HPC is going with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 :lmao: HPC is going with the GGEM. Yes I could not believe their 4PM updates. They have their 4"+ probability zone over the I-81 corridor into Central PA. Their concern is the western solutions (GGEM, ECMWF, etc) that could bring rain/mix to I-95 east. But I can't believe they have it that far west with the uncertainty of precip even making it that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A lot of Nogaps huggers on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can we also seperate NY posters from PA posters? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can we also seperate NY posters from PA posters? Thank you. Or the NYC area from the Philly area.....we do that for OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 gfs ens mean is eleizabeth city to just south of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The accum precip from the mean is .75-1 for nyc and phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 gfs ens mean is eleizabeth city to just south of the bm The accum precip from the mean is .75-1 for nyc and phl Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wrong thread lol yea i know i clicked the wrong thing, i was wondering why the heck there was only 5 ppl in here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The accum precip from the mean is .75-1 for nyc and phl OP/Ensembles in fair agreement with rain and then like 3-6" of snow or something to that affect. UKMET looks pretty solid as well. GGEM the usual. NOGAPS in agreement with the GFS/GEFS...I think we have a pretty good idea at the moment of what will happen wrt the track. We'll see what happens but I think by 0z Tuesday it'll be pretty much wrapped up with some temp/snow fall totals fine tuning for the remainder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i cant believe this event got pushed back to thurs night right? wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i cant believe this event got pushed back to thurs night right? wow.. No it's Wednesday night into Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i cant believe this event got pushed back to thurs night right? wow.. Per the GFS, first signs of precip into the area are around 18z Wed and continues to roughly 12z Thursday, so thankfully most of this will come at night according to the latest run. UKMET/GEFS in general agreement with timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 only thing i hate is you need dynamics to get snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this thing has more bust potential then pam anderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this thing has more bust potential then pam anderson Jan 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Per the GFS, first signs of precip into the area are around 18z Wed and continues to roughly 12z Thursday, so thankfully most of this will come at night according to the latest run. UKMET/GEFS in general agreement with timing. thanks man, having precip come in when the sun angle is not a factor is a huge +. I think every storm this year has started much later in the day and ended in the early morning. Great timing to get significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It was calm and unseasonably mild the day before the storm. It was bright, clear, sunny day without a single cloud in the sky. Everyone in New York and along the eastern region of the country was enjoying balmy weather before the storm. Temperatures on March 11 were in the 40s and 50s. People have already started planning their gardens. It was only about a week before the first day of spring. On that day heavy rain began falling and on March 12, the temperature dropped dramatically and the wind began to pickup and the heavy rain turned to heavy snow http://hubpages.com/hub/The-Great-Blizzard-of-1888 This is to lift spirits, this little piece was written about the Blizzard of 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 only thing i hate is you need dynamics to get snow..... Not for NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In the NW we just need the precip. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z NAM. LOL. Partly sunny skies for all of PA and flurries for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z NAM. LOL. Partly sunny skies for all of PA and flurries for NYC. went off to bed last night with visions of sugar plums and CCB's dancing in my head. Woke up to a hostage crisis . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd wait for the 12 GFS & ECMWF before losing those visions of sugar plums and CCBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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