SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z GGEM looks good still not as amped as last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEM shifts east from 0z but is still a good hit for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs loses the brutal cold wave. Brings in the arctic front to about the Ohio river and shunts it east and out. by the 20-23rd of January there is virtually no cold air in the conus or canada, (relative to average). wonder if it's just a hiccup. I noticed the euro was also pushing back the arrival of driving in the cold in as well. The models have been all over the place run to run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEMS looks like a modest event for the mid atlantic. I'd take it. Ensemble mean looks excellent (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEMS looks like a modest event for the mid atlantic. I'd take it. Ensemble mean looks excellent (GFS) Seasonal trends perhaps this 12z run buries coastal areas further nroth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The models have been all over the place run to run with that. that's true however if you're rooting for the brutal cold wave, it has to be a concern that it keeps getting shoved back. We were supposed to be in the 'thick' of it by next week from the 10th on with it peaking at the 20th. Now it looks to not even get in here until the 20th, if then, and is looking more an more transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Seasonal trends perhaps this 12z run buries coastal areas further nroth. whoa..didn't see that panel. has a bit more down here as well than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 that's true however if you're rooting for the brutal cold wave, it has to be a concern that it keeps getting shoved back. We were supposed to be in the 'thick' of it by next week from the 10th on with it peaking at the 20th. Now it looks to not even get in here until the 20th, if then, and is looking more an more transient. The 10th? No. Like I said in our thread, earliest ensembles showed a threat from the 16-20th for brutal cold, not the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The 10th? No. Like I said in our thread, earliest ensembles showed a threat from the 16-20th for brutal cold, not the 10th. I can recall posting a 240 hour euro map that showed the ridiculous 850s into the OV....that was several days ago remember this, january 2nd http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6962-12z-euro-hr-240/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Mike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And if you reference the Don S. thread, he clearly mentions that the real cold would not arrive until shortly after the AO bottoms out at mid-month The 10th? No. Like I said in our thread, earliest ensembles showed a threat from the 16-20th for brutal cold, not the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GGEMS looks like a modest event for the mid atlantic. I'd take it. Ensemble mean looks excellent (GFS) It looked great dec 26 too. I'd be happy with 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I can recall posting a 240 hour euro map that showed the ridiculous 850s into the OV....that was several days ago remember this, january 2nd http://www.americanw...2z-euro-hr-240/ That isn't close to brutal cold. Compare that to todays map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That isn't close to brutal cold. Compare that to todays map. it was the same cold shot, however, that everyone was speculating on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it was the same cold shot, however, that everyone was speculating on. Reminds me of last year, when the block helped us stay cool relative to average and there were a couple of significantly colder airmasses modeled that never really materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The WRF-ARW develops a 989 mb low about 50 miles off Cape May at 30 hrs, then deepens it to 987 mb at 33 hrs about 100 miles off Asbury Park, then at 36 hrs it develops a secondary low or broadens the original low and has two centers one about 150 miles offshore of Asbury Park at 986 mb and the second one about 20 miles off Asbury Park at 987mb , then it deepens that low to 985 mb about 50 miles offshore of Asbury Park, then deepens to a 983mb about 100 miles off Asbury Park, it then deepens it to a 982mb near the Benchmark at 45 hrs. Precip wise it brings an area from about Harrisburg to Baltimore, all of Eastern PA, all of NJ, all of CT, and SE NY state at least 3-4 inches of snow tomorrow, with possibly a more in Central NJ and possibly even more than that on Long Island maybe around 6 inches or so, and coastal CT could get a foot according to the WRF-ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It looked great dec 26 too. I'd be happy with 2-4. Wes, GEM was never really on board with 12/26 for us at least never anything more than an inch or two its been much more bullish for Tuesday fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wes, GEM was never really on board with 12/26 for us at least never anything more than an inch or two its been much more bullish for Tuesday fwiw you are right. GGEM/EURO/UKMET and NAM constantly said no to us. Only the GFS for a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wes, GEM was never really on board with 12/26 for us at least never anything more than an inch or two its been much more bullish for Tuesday fwiw True but the gfs ensembles and the sref were. My comment was strictly about the ensembles. if I'm not mistaken, the 12Z ensemble mean qpf is not as wet as the 06Z. I'm in ian's camp with expectation if the storm works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The WRF-ARW develops a 989 mb low about 50 miles off Cape May at 30 hrs, then deepens it to 987 mb at 33 hrs about 100 miles off Asbury Park, then at 36 hrs it develops a secondary low or broadens the original low and has two centers one about 150 miles offshore of Asbury Park at 986 mb and the second one about 20 miles off Asbury Park at 987mb , then it deepens that low to 985 mb about 50 miles offshore of Asbury Park, then deepens to a 983mb about 100 miles off Asbury Park, it then deepens it to a 982mb near the Benchmark at 45 hrs. Precip wise it brings an area from about Harrisburg to Baltimore, all of Eastern PA, all of NJ, all of CT, and SE NY state at least 3-4 inches of snow tomorrow, with possibly a more in Central NJ and possibly even more than that on Long Island maybe around 6 inches or so, and coastal CT could get a foot according to the WRF-ARW. I'd take that with a grain of salt. These HI-RES models seem to have a wet bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd take that with a grain of salt. These HI-RES models seem to have a wet bias. I agree. At least whenI used to look at them regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I agree. At least whenI used to look at them regularly. They do. But they also do a good job of shaping the gradients. Granted this is for out west, but I don't the ideas should change in the east. http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124708.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They do. But they also do a good job of shaping the gradients. Granted this is for out west, but I don't the ideas should change in the east. http://ams.confex.co...pers/124708.pdf I think the question was using the model qpf as is fro a snow forecast. it might help with the details but not so much with the amounts. I also wonder whether they are better out west where the terrain forcing is much stronger than near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the question was using the model qpf as is fro a snow forecast. it might help with the details but not so much with the amounts. I also wonder whether they are better out west where the terrain forcing is much stronger than near the coast. Yeah, that's what I was trying to say. Sorry for not communicating that clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 They do. But they also do a good job of shaping the gradients. Granted this is for out west, but I don't the ideas should change in the east. http://ams.confex.co...pers/124708.pdf High res models do well in complex terrain in the short term, but they stink it up beyond a couple days because there is so much noise since they are less aggressively filtered to preserve small scale detail. U of Washington has a great high res modeling system in place--I think those are much better than the NCEP products for intermountain W/Pacific NW. Even out W, the high res guidance often grossly over-amplifies terrain effects under certain conditions to the point valleys, etc. would never see precipitation. That is obviously unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There's a lot more ridging out ahead of the northern stream s/w at 96 in the Euro. Max diffluence is over CVG instead of CRW. Low pressure near the same position at 0z off ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There's a deeper ULL over PA at 120, but not much difference in surface low position from 0z. It is farther west than the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ARW Hour 39 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_slp_039m.gif Total Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like .5-.75 for Delmarva, Jersey, and the Capes with lighter amounts as you go farther west. I-95 from DC-NYC would see 2-4" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like .5-.75 for Delmarva, Jersey, and the Capes with lighter amounts as you go farther west. I-95 from DC-NYC would see 2-4" verbatim. If you don't mind...QPF OH, IN, KY, WPA type areas from the OV low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If you don't mind...QPF OH, IN, KY, WPA type areas from the OV low? From C OH/E KY through Appalchia - .25"-.5" Weird band sets up across E TN where they pick up .5-1" Deep South .25-.5" New England whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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