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1/7/2010 12z Model Runs


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gfs loses the brutal cold wave. Brings in the arctic front to about the Ohio river and shunts it east and out. by the 20-23rd of January there is virtually no cold air in the conus or canada, (relative to average).

wonder if it's just a hiccup. I noticed the euro was also pushing back the arrival of driving in the cold in as well.

The models have been all over the place run to run with that.

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The models have been all over the place run to run with that.

that's true however if you're rooting for the brutal cold wave, it has to be a concern that it keeps getting shoved back. We were supposed to be in the 'thick' of it by next week from the 10th on with it peaking at the 20th. Now it looks to not even get in here until the 20th, if then, and is looking more an more transient.

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that's true however if you're rooting for the brutal cold wave, it has to be a concern that it keeps getting shoved back. We were supposed to be in the 'thick' of it by next week from the 10th on with it peaking at the 20th. Now it looks to not even get in here until the 20th, if then, and is looking more an more transient.

The 10th? No. Like I said in our thread, earliest ensembles showed a threat from the 16-20th for brutal cold, not the 10th.

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The 10th? No. Like I said in our thread, earliest ensembles showed a threat from the 16-20th for brutal cold, not the 10th.

I can recall posting a 240 hour euro map that showed the ridiculous 850s into the OV....that was several days ago

remember this, january 2nd

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6962-12z-euro-hr-240/

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The WRF-ARW develops a 989 mb low about 50 miles off Cape May at 30 hrs, then deepens it to 987 mb at 33 hrs about 100 miles off Asbury Park, then at 36 hrs it develops a secondary low or broadens the original low and has two centers one about 150 miles offshore of Asbury Park at 986 mb and the second one about 20 miles off Asbury Park at 987mb , then it deepens that low to 985 mb about 50 miles offshore of Asbury Park, then deepens to a 983mb about 100 miles off Asbury Park, it then deepens it to a 982mb near the Benchmark at 45 hrs. Precip wise it brings an area from about Harrisburg to Baltimore, all of Eastern PA, all of NJ, all of CT, and SE NY state at least 3-4 inches of snow tomorrow, with possibly a more in Central NJ and possibly even more than that on Long Island maybe around 6 inches or so, and coastal CT could get a foot according to the WRF-ARW.

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Wes, GEM was never really on board with 12/26 for us

at least never anything more than an inch or two

its been much more bullish for Tuesday fwiw

you are right. GGEM/EURO/UKMET and NAM constantly said no to us. Only the GFS for a few runs

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Wes, GEM was never really on board with 12/26 for us

at least never anything more than an inch or two

its been much more bullish for Tuesday fwiw

True but the gfs ensembles and the sref were. My comment was strictly about the ensembles. if I'm not mistaken, the 12Z ensemble mean qpf is not as wet as the 06Z.

I'm in ian's camp with expectation if the storm works out.

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The WRF-ARW develops a 989 mb low about 50 miles off Cape May at 30 hrs, then deepens it to 987 mb at 33 hrs about 100 miles off Asbury Park, then at 36 hrs it develops a secondary low or broadens the original low and has two centers one about 150 miles offshore of Asbury Park at 986 mb and the second one about 20 miles off Asbury Park at 987mb , then it deepens that low to 985 mb about 50 miles offshore of Asbury Park, then deepens to a 983mb about 100 miles off Asbury Park, it then deepens it to a 982mb near the Benchmark at 45 hrs. Precip wise it brings an area from about Harrisburg to Baltimore, all of Eastern PA, all of NJ, all of CT, and SE NY state at least 3-4 inches of snow tomorrow, with possibly a more in Central NJ and possibly even more than that on Long Island maybe around 6 inches or so, and coastal CT could get a foot according to the WRF-ARW.

:weenie: I'd take that with a grain of salt. These HI-RES models seem to have a wet bias.

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They do. But they also do a good job of shaping the gradients. Granted this is for out west, but I don't the ideas should change in the east.

http://ams.confex.co...pers/124708.pdf

I think the question was using the model qpf as is fro a snow forecast. it might help with the details but not so much with the amounts. I also wonder whether they are better out west where the terrain forcing is much stronger than near the coast.

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I think the question was using the model qpf as is fro a snow forecast. it might help with the details but not so much with the amounts. I also wonder whether they are better out west where the terrain forcing is much stronger than near the coast.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to say. Sorry for not communicating that clearly.

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They do. But they also do a good job of shaping the gradients. Granted this is for out west, but I don't the ideas should change in the east.

http://ams.confex.co...pers/124708.pdf

High res models do well in complex terrain in the short term, but they stink it up beyond a couple days because there is so much noise since they are less aggressively filtered to preserve small scale detail. U of Washington has a great high res modeling system in place--I think those are much better than the NCEP products for intermountain W/Pacific NW.

Even out W, the high res guidance often grossly over-amplifies terrain effects under certain conditions to the point valleys, etc. would never see precipitation. That is obviously unrealistic.

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