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1/7/2010 12z Model Runs


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Yeah, I agree. This run really didn't do anything whacky from 00Z. I think that is a win for the GFS.

i think we're getting into range where we can start to believe a bit... i guess i'd like to see the ggem come off its mecs solution just since i dont believe it, but i'd take it.

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i think we're getting into range where we can start to believe a bit... i guess i'd like to see the ggem come off its mecs solution just since i dont believe it, but i'd take it.

There is no way the GGEM verifies or keeps its 0z solution. I don't think even the weeniest of weenies bought that one. It was the only model showing something like that. It has nowhere to go but down at 12z.

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Nobody probably cares but the GFS through 162 is about to plow the arctic front into the plains in impressive fashion.

this is AMERICAN! we care.. at least a little tiny bit (if it's going to impact the east especially).

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12Z UKMET at 120 hours. Has a surface low tucked under Long Island. Rainshadow says the UKMET has not verified well this winter but this is now the second run it has showed a solution closer to the coast.

Not sure what if did before 120 since the hour before this is 96 but I can post that too.

120 Hours

jkgcoj.gif

96 hours

504knt.gif

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12Z UKMET at 120 hours. Has a surface low tucked under Long Island. Rainshadow says the UKMET has not verified well this winter but this is now the second run it has showed a solution closer to the coast.

Not sure what if did before 120 since the hour before this is 96 but I can post that too.

120 Hours

96 hours

ugh, that's looks incredibly weak..

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Something that has peeked me interest is the potential for a Ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and others for next Weekend, here is the 00z Day 9-10 EURO and todays 12z GFS, I highlighted where there seems to be a wedge setup by High Pressure in SE Canada. The GFS shows a low scooting north of the lakes, but the EURO holds the wedge and develops a low off the coast. Nothing to lose sleep over, but some potential for an "Icy" situation in the big cities in the East IMO.

Thoughts?

240.gif

2401.gif

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Something that has peeked me interest is the potential for a Ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and others for next Weekend, here is the 00z Day 9-10 EURO and todays 12z GFS, I highlighted where there seems to be a wedge setup by High Pressure in SE Canada. The GFS shows a low scooting north of the lakes, but the EURO holds the wedge and develops a low off the coast. Nothing to lose sleep over, but some potential for an "Icy" situation in the big cities in the East IMO.

Thoughts?

240.gif

2401.gif

Yeah we will definitely have to see and wait. There is a ton of variability in this pattern break down, but a ton of potential. It all depends on the strength and orientation of the ejecting wave, whether it comes in 1 or 2 pieces, etc. Tiny amplification/strength differences will make huge changes with such an extreme low level baroclinic zone. CMC is junk overall, but it shows another threat type...which would support your thoughts. Could see anything from a deep trough to a very low amplitude intense jet crashing through the plains. A lot of variability but potential as well.

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Yeah we will definitely have to see and wait. There is a ton of variability in this pattern break down, but a ton of potential. It all depends on the strength and orientation of the ejecting wave, whether it comes in 1 or 2 pieces, etc. Tiny amplification/strength differences will make huge changes with such an extreme low level baroclinic zone. CMC is junk overall, but it shows another threat type...which would support your thoughts. Could see anything from a deep trough to a very low amplitude intense jet crashing through the plains. A lot of variability but potential as well.

You guys are talking about the storm right before the really cold stuff comes in, yes? God, I really hope there's not an ice storm next weekend. My wife's due date is that Tuesday the 18th and I really don't want to be trying to get to the hospital with ice on the roads.

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You guys are talking about the storm right before the really cold stuff comes in, yes? God, I really hope there's not an ice storm next weekend. My wife's due date is that Tuesday the 18th and I really don't want to be trying to get to the hospital with ice on the roads.

Its a long ways out, I just thought the Day 9-10 EURO and GFS have a nice wedge cut into the East, but like the met. said it depends on where the pieces of energy eject etc.

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Its a long ways out, I just thought the Day 9-10 EURO and GFS have a nice wedge cut into the East, but like the met. said it depends on where the pieces of energy eject etc.

Obviously and it's good to know so that I can keep an eye on it. Just expressing my displeasure with that potential solution...

By the way, grammarian in me can't let it pass... it's piqued, not peeked or peaked... although, peaked would be closer to what you mean than peeked.

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gfs loses the brutal cold wave. Brings in the arctic front to about the Ohio river and shunts it east and out. by the 20-23rd of January there is virtually no cold air in the conus or canada, (relative to average).

wonder if it's just a hiccup. I noticed the euro was also pushing back the arrival of driving in the cold in as well.

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