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1/7/2010 12z Model Runs


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One thing we gotta see is that on those 500mb maps, that it digs much further south.. Need a closed low to form further south say over Kentucky.. Then have the storm move slowly up the coast and then many folks get in on a big storm. Wonder if the models will show that today or not.

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In regards to the snow potential in the SE... be careful with the warm tongue between 700-850mb... could turn a lot of that "snow" into sleet or freezing rain.

Yeah, that's definitely a more likely scenario than the NAM verbatim. But there is a lot more potential than usual to just dismiss it out of hand.

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In regards to the snow potential in the SE... be careful with the warm tongue between 700-850mb... could turn a lot of that "snow" into sleet or freezing rain.

In any case, it is really starting to look like this will be a major event, possibly historic event for the deep south, whether it is Sleet, freezing rain, or snow.....heck, 6 inches in the part of MS/AL that is bullseyed right now is historic...18 inches, as the NAM shows (doubt that happens) would be cataclysmic.

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The gfs also gives us snow, I've never seen so many inverted troughs on the models. I guess that's what you get when you increase resolution.

Yeah, the GFS isnt quite as aggressive with it though, I guess a good call would be another coating to an inch tomorrow afternoon/night.

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Looks like a nice 1 to 2 inch event? .10 to .25?

I think .10 is more like it unless you're closer to the coast to our northeast or east. The heights over us are a little lower than on the last GFS, I hope that does not gum up our next storm and my CWG discussion which is waiting on the model.

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