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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Messenger when does the UKMET come out? Or has it already come out?

Already out nips the Cape. That's 2-3 runs of consistency, for my dollar that's better than the rest until proven wrong.

I'd think t-2"/2-4 is a safe bet from ACK to about the canal. Will look to the 18z for a final call. Plenty of time to adjust back off/call of school, head to the fallout shelter.

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Can't they just delete it from the records? If a thermometer was reading 20 degrees hotter than every other surrounding location, they'd dismiss it as broken, and you wouldn't find it in the history books. Some QC is well warranted here.

BOX can request a change be made, but really NCDC is the official record keeper of climate.

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They all do it. 12/13/07 wasn't in issue bc all the schools were closed or closed early the issue was commuters leaving work.

For the past 5 or 6 years they'll close for any accumulation over an inch or two during the day. Worried about lawsuits.

If they were so worried about lawsuits, why don't they insist that the bus companies install seatbelts? Sorry for the OT post.

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They all do it. 12/13/07 wasn't in issue bc all the schools were closed or closed early the issue was commuters leaving work.

For the past 5 or 6 years they'll close for any accumulation over an inch or two during the day. Worried about lawsuits.

That seems ridiculous....up here all the schools didn't cancel on 12/13/07 and it was a disaster.

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If they were so worried about lawsuits, why don't they insist that the bus companies install seatbelts? Sorry for the OT post.

They don't do early dismissal of school up here, Either its canceled or there in school for the day, Early dismissal creates to many problems with kids being home with no supervision.......

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BOX can request a change be made, but really NCDC is the official record keeper of climate.

Fair enough, but I'm guessing NCDC relies on the local FO's to help them identify bad data. I suppose they might have an algorithm that searches for discontinuities and flags suspicious measurements, but without local confirmation it's pretty hard to make that algorithm work well. Heat bursts, or some freak upslope location might appear to be discontinuous but actually be correct. In any case, if all they can do is request a change be made, they might as well do it, unless they just don't think it's that important. I'm curious if 14" would be a daily record for Hartford, and if so, they probably should do something. (maybe since it was between the 26th and 27th though, no records were affected?)

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Most of us knew the snow wouldn't real;ly come into CT until later afternoon...maybe the superintendants should be given a link to American

No kidding I don't know where they got all this stuff from. Maybe everyone was too busy watching the clown singing and dancing in the morning and not providing accurate forecasts.

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What do you expect for SNH?

Don't you read, or just ask questions?

Throw out a number because your guess will be as good as any.

0-8" Nowcast would be the operative. Impossible to nail !!!

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I'm liking the on-deck system. Good ole SW'er (pack of energy) riding up the coast. Well atleast with some model consistancy.

I'll take my 4" from this ClusterFluck and more on.:thumbsup:

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Thanks messenger, how strong is the SLP?

Didn't look! Just looking aloft, it's fairly consistent.

It's the same old race, this time the nose of the energy coming around the PV scoots a little east instead of wrapping up tight so we get a jump further e than the last run. It's 36 hours out...but we kind of have to favor the group.

With the amount of change every six hours I have very little confidence. The NAM is out to lunch. The RGEM/GFS probably have the best idea of a bigger low close enough to make it interesting.

GGEM is in, if I had to draw a QPF map with all the uncertainty this would be it. There's time for it to shove north but it almost feels like we've passed the point of that happening and maybe now we're seeing the subtle drift. Ensembles will be interesting.

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Didn't look! Just looking aloft, it's fairly consistent.

It's the same old race, this time the nose of the energy coming around the PV scoots a little east instead of wrapping up tight so we get a jump further e than the last run. It's 36 hours out...but we kind of have to favor the group.

With the amount of change every six hours I have very little confidence. The NAM is out to lunch. The RGEM/GFS probably have the best idea of a bigger low close enough to make it interesting.

GGEM is in, if I had to draw a QPF map with all the uncertainty this would be it. There's time for it to shove north but it almost feels like we've passed the point of that happening and maybe now we're seeing the subtle drift. Ensembles will be interesting.

I want a subtle drift of 150 miles.

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