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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah. 13.9"???? What was that all about? I'm literally 2 miles from BDL and I measured 9.6" and that was generous. Wind made it tough.

For today? they'll probably get 3 or 4"... though the measurement from the last storm was a disaster.

I'd probably go with -SN for now Saturday night with some accumulation possible... it's hard to say since the models are having a rough time resolving this feature.

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I can't begin to tell you how bad the models have been within 72 hours so far this winter. I just shake my head. y'day the upper level low was supposed to cruise through the golf of maine. Now it's like 150 miles S of ACK.

I was talking to forky yesterday online about how bad we've seen the models this year. I was wondering if it was because since all of these models' inception, they have never had to deal with a strong nina coupled with extreme blocking.

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The problem is, the traditional norlun is usually a bit farther SE than this setup seems to be evolving. The coastal low would be escaping farther SE than modeled now for a "textbook" inv trof snow event. Is that correct?

It's as though we are in between, or at least the model solutions haven't converged on what reality will be.

nail on the head

I can't begin to tell you how bad the models have been within 72 hours so far this winter. I just shake my head. y'day the upper level low was supposed to cruise through the golf of maine. Now it's like 150 miles S of ACK.

Not good, not consistent. UK though hasn't budged too much for the last set of runs. Euro probably won't budge much either.

--

Is it really Partly Sunny in Hartford? Glare on the windshield could get ugly, kids should be let out pronto.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

BRADLEY INTL CLOUDY 26 14 60 N6 29.51F WCI 19

HARTFORD PTSUNNY 28 17 63 N5 29.52F WCI 23

BRIDGEPORT CLOUDY 31 24 75 E14 29.49S WCI 21

DANBURY LGT SNOW 27 23 85 E7 29.46F FOG WCI 19

GROTON PTSUNNY 32 13 45 NE8 29.51S WCI 25

NEW HAVEN CLOUDY 32 20 61 E9 29.49F WCI 24

CHESTER FAIR 28 16 59 E6 29.49S WCI 22

MERIDEN CLOUDY 27 19 72 N3 29.50F

WILLIMANTIC CLOUDY 27 14 58 N3 29.52F

OXFORD CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A E9 29.48F

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I was talking to forky yesterday online about how bad we've seen the models this year. I was wondering if it was because since all of these models' inception, they have never had to deal with a strong nina coupled with extreme blocking.

That could very well be it However, there should be no excuse to repeatedly drastically change solutions within 60 hours...sometimes within 24-36. The players are mostly on the table by that point.

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This kind of reminds me of an event from a couple years ago. Not sure if it was an inverted trough scenario or not, so setup may have been completely different. But there was a weak system that was advertised to drop a solid 2-4" across much of SNE. I know we ended up a bit too warm at the coast and didn't even squeeze out an inch...I was bummed. But then the next night....a surprise coastal ended up clipping us and dropping almost 5". I think this was 1/18-1/19/2009. I gotta see what that setup was...but I don't remember the first even being an inverted trough norlun type event.

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LOL at schools closing in CT today--could have gotten in most of a day or even a whole day...nothing of note except for extreme western CT and even where I am, it's melting on contact

Yes sir, flurries have stopped once again, and the pixie dust from this morning has melted.

hilarious.

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Yeah it was a garbage measurement but nothing the NWS can really do. Oh well.

They probably had 8" or something.

Can't they just delete it from the records? If a thermometer was reading 20 degrees hotter than every other surrounding location, they'd dismiss it as broken, and you wouldn't find it in the history books. Some QC is well warranted here.

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This kind of reminds me of an event from a couple years ago. Not sure if it was an inverted trough scenario or not, so setup may have been completely different. But there was a weak system that was advertised to drop a solid 2-4" across much of SNE. I know we ended up a bit too warm at the coast and didn't even squeeze out an inch...I was bummed. But then the next night....a surprise coastal ended up clipping us and dropping almost 5". I think this was 1/18-1/19/2009. I gotta see what that setup was...but I don't remember the first even being an inverted trough norlun type event.

I remember that event(s) very well, if I have my dates right. One of the few that has overperformed in the Middletown, CT, in the past seven or so years. We had a two or three of inches from the first wave, which was a bit of a dissapointment, but then five plus from the surprise second wave. Such a nice snowfall. It's so rare to be completely surprised by a five inch snowfall these days.

I was thinking about that too when I saw the NAM this morning. I have no idea if the setup is similar, but sensibile weatherwise it would be close if the second wave delivers.

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Holy crap...how many schools closed in CT today? (like coverage wise)

Are they all getting freaked out ever since 12/13/07?

They all do it. 12/13/07 wasn't in issue bc all the schools were closed or closed early the issue was commuters leaving work.

For the past 5 or 6 years they'll close for any accumulation over an inch or two during the day. Worried about lawsuits.

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