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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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So these models still cant get a firm grip of whats going on?

Who knows but the NAM got the first storm of the year right and has been bad since. NAM has the last 2 runs of the RGEM.

RGEM is intense, it just misses, not really like the GFS from 6z at all. Mess.

NCEP throwing their hands up ,cant blame them. I think overall the average would work best in this situation. What stinks for them is by the time they are able to publish the new versions of models (CMC) have changed. RGEM just jumped fast.

They did not note significant errors.

DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN

MID-ATLANTIC STATES/OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...PREFERENCE FOR A

GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE

THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM

OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF

ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...AND HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE

SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE

IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z NAM

ON THE EAST SIDE AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE

DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. SINCE THERE IS NO

OVERARCHING MODEL TREND HERE...WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL

COMPROMISE WITH THE LOWS TRACK AND DEPTH.

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The hills to my west are partially obscured through the snow at this point.

:thumbsup: very cool. Can't see anything here off the coast a bit.

Gotta say, this looks to be AWT for a few days for most of us. Great job Upton of beating that advisory drum for a while now. Even though it's so unpredictable and still not all spelled out and has driven some to further insanity they handled it nicely.

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Who knows but the NAM got the first storm of the year right and has been bad since. NAM has the last 2 runs of the RGEM.

RGEM is intense, it just misses, not really like the GFS from 6z at all. Mess.

NCEP throwing their hands up ,cant blame them. I think overall the average would work best in this situation. What stinks for them is by the time they are able to publish the new versions of models (CMC) have changed. RGEM just jumped fast.

They did not note significant errors.

DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN

MID-ATLANTIC STATES/OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...PREFERENCE FOR A

GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE

THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST/WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM

OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF

ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...AND HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE

SURFACE LOW FORMING NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE

IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z NAM

ON THE EAST SIDE AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE

DISTRIBUTION WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. SINCE THERE IS NO

OVERARCHING MODEL TREND HERE...WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL

COMPROMISE WITH THE LOWS TRACK AND DEPTH.

Thanks

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Everyone is just worried about getting sued if there happens to be an accident due to slick roads and kids getting hurt.

Yup. It's become a rather pathetic state of affairs. On one side the lawyers are waiting for the accident to occur so they can show up on the scene, even if it means getting there by snowmobile to take the case.

On the other side, we have become so letigious, that it all may backfire on the same lawers, and sue happy folks who put us there. Pretty soon, we will become such a nation of whimps that we won't even venture outside without the aid futuristic safety bubbles to keep us warm and safe. Then there will be no one left to sue.

[/thread tangent off]

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Indeed. It probably won't snow for a while but I do hope that is the end of the sun here until tomorrow. To me it's not a fun sight on a day where you're expecting snowfall.

LOL patience grasshopper, you guys should get the goods, this is a slow moving band hats all. Look at RUC timing

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:thumbsup: very cool. Can't see anything here off the coast a bit.

Gotta say, this looks to be AWT for a few days for most of us. Great job Upton of beating that advisory drum for a while now. Even though it's so unpredictable and still not all spelled out and has driven some to further insanity they handled it nicely.

Hang in there, ripping pretty good in Norwalk now, visibilities finally coming down.

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LOL patience grasshopper, you guys should get the goods, this is a slow moving band, tansy all. Look at RUC timing

LOL I know, that's why I said the timing part, but who doesn't hate to have to see the sun? Ugh. I can see patches of blue sky right now. I'll wait till 2-4 PM to crank or even later but please, no blue or sun! :arrowhead:

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LOL patience grasshopper, you guys should get the goods, this is a slow moving band hats all. Look at RUC timing

Not sure I'd trust the RUC. It's less and less robust as time goes by.

14z 6h-8h at 700 vs 11z.... I don't trust it but it's ugly.

Speaking of ugly GFS is rolling. Continues to hold back the vorticity max along the lines of the 6z. On the same token more robust with the trough coming through here dropping 1-3" overnight over most of EMA.

EDIT: It's well west of the 6z through 30, slower than the 0z.

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