CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that low is really going to bomb out east of Cape Cod/Islands. it's hard to tell from the NAM, but the latest RUC has pressure falls of 2mb/hr later tonight Wow now that will bring some impressive snows to the Cape and Islands at least. Maybe getting to 10"+? Euro bumped a qpf a bit in ern mass. looks like 2-4" for BOS. 0.5" line gets to messenger. The euro also is depicting the scenario that the NA and GFS have with lift spiking up into central mass between 00z and 06z. Wow, that is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Also...as Scott mentioned, Euro is surprisingly robust for tonight's system. Most models in line together now. I still like RGEM...lol.. yeah, radar looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow Euro steadfast now ...2 runs in a row of big hit Wed....school snow day alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow Euro steadfast now ...2 runs in a row of big hit Wed....school snow day alert! good stuff Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i've had enough of missing out on the good stuff. i think i'll be on the road looking for this area should it develop before 2 am. i'm gonna see some heavy crap tonite. Road trip. skiing at 4pm this evening as well. Ginx i don't know man ....but i do know we gotta plenty of time. Hopefully it's a widespread light snow with a few bands of heavier snow. At the peak around midnight there should be 2-3 bands of heavier snow somewhere in SNE from about Kev east. But it's going to be such a fine line. There is going to be some mesoscale bands coming through tonight. Will be interesting nonetheless. I'd still go for a general 3-6 from a BOS/PVD line out to the mid-cape. I think several meso bands tonight and probably a pretty clear rotation on radar spinning back towards us after 8pm tonight. It's a shame it looks like we miss a very nice snowstorm by 20-30 miles. Models are probably really underdoing QPF just like last night in the band that is setting up under us that may kiss the south shore of the Cape/Islands/RI/LI. Like you said just will have to watch it. When we're talking dry slots they always seem to get further north, lets see if this system can get a measely 30 miles north tonight. Nowcast time, look at radar, WV Scott. , picturing big doings your way. Very true. Congrats OSU. NAM is so close to giving upwards of 12"+ to Cape Cod, MA. Just move that CCB a tad further north and we have ourselves a huge blizzard. I mean the storm begins to deepen around 8mb/6hours, greater than 1mb/hr pressure falls over the buoy SE of ACK by 54nm would suggest that this CCB moves further northwestward into the South Shore of MA including Cape and Islands. Should be a fun night in my opinion. Hopefully that band of 1.5-1.75" of QPF moves northward more than modeled. So that Cape and Islands can get some fun, NAM is actually signaling a potential slowing down in forward movement by the surface low as it gets captured by the H5 low. However it is too far east for this to greatly benefit us. It's incredibly close on all models. I'm thinking 1-3" here and over most areas. Thing is some are going to get less than 1" some more than 3" in the general SNE area. Right on the coast of MA/RI and inland a few miles 2-4 and 3-6 right over to Cape Cod. Not sure about temps but the islands or right on the coast could see 6-12. Essentially like this map. I'm probably shooting low in accums but that's deliberate for right now. 20 miles is going to mean the difference between 1" of QPF and 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 4 days baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Also , CoastalWX thanks again for the Euro update. It's appreciated. Weatherfella, not sure what's worse your cold or my hangover. I didn't catch who has the incoming baby...whoever it was congrats! And OSUMet....congrats to you my friend. Did I see you are tying the knot next week? Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 4 days baby Euro dumps alot of snow on us pre dawn Wed and through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OT for this subforum, but what's the EURO qpf like for tues night/weds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like about an inch melted qpf for the Wed system. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 radar is really blossoming southwest of SNE...should be interesting to watch this unfold tonight, I'm liking my map posted earlier ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hopefully it's a widespread light snow with a few bands of heavier snow. At the peak around midnight there should be 2-3 bands of heavier snow somewhere in SNE from about Kev east. But it's going to be such a fine line. I think several meso bands tonight and probably a pretty clear rotation on radar spinning back towards us after 8pm tonight. It's a shame it looks like we miss a very nice snowstorm by 20-30 miles. Models are probably really underdoing QPF just like last night in the band that is setting up under us that may kiss the south shore of the Cape/Islands/RI/LI. Like you said just will have to watch it. When we're talking dry slots they always seem to get further north, lets see if this system can get a measely 30 miles north tonight. Very true. It's incredibly close on all models. I'm thinking 1-3" here and over most areas. Thing is some are going to get less than 1" some more than 3" in the general SNE area. Right on the coast of MA/RI and inland a few miles 2-4 and 3-6 right over to Cape Cod. Not sure about temps but the islands or right on the coast could see 6-12. Essentially like this map. I'm probably shooting low in accums but that's deliberate for right now. 20 miles is going to mean the difference between 1" of QPF and 1" of snow. I like that MM5 depiction for amts and heaviest areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like about an inch melted qpf for the Wed system. Not bad! LOL keeping eye on the ball. Funny its always the next onel I think tonight is going to surprise us northern periphery folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like that MM5 depiction for amts and heaviest areas I think it makes sense as well...overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think it makes sense as well...overall. You can see the inv trough it extends back NW into CT nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow Euro steadfast now ...2 runs in a row of big hit Wed....school snow day alert! Locking it in!!! Hope you are feeling better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think it makes sense as well...overall. How far west does Euro have qpf ? I'm guessing west of HFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like that MM5 depiction for amts and heaviest areas Looks like it pulses precip on the trough as it swings down and through. MM5 was really pretty good with yesterdays trough BUT it blew max amounts terribly which is expected no model will nail that. Question is, is it doing it again and we may see much heavier QPF a little north? I think it makes sense as well...overall. I don't think this is going to be a smooth accum line this time like we see drawn on TV...it'll have some north south ridges for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like that MM5 depiction for amts and heaviest areas Carefully note the attlehole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Carefully note the attlehole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Carefully note the attlehole. Yeah but you guys cleaned up in the blizz a few weeks back..Well you're old area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah but you guys cleaned up in the blizz a few weeks back..Well you're old area now did they get like a foot? I don't remember seeing attleboro in the PNS. I was down there this past monday and there was still a good 5 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 did they get like a foot? I don't remember seeing attleboro in the PNS. I was down there this past monday and there was still a good 5 inches on the ground. I think it may have even been a bit more than that..but yeah at least a foot. I think it was in PNS..or maybe someone posted from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Pressure at the buoy southeast of Nantucket, MA by 54nm is now reporting pressure of 995mb and a pressure fall couplet of 2mb/3hours, although it has dropped from its previous obs. Also that was as of 1250pm est, the next update should occur within the next 20 minutes. There is a delay in the reports natural delay for some reason. Lightning is in a cluster east of NJ. Satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops deepening and becoming more spread out. Sign of a developing low pressure center. Latest 12z HIRES short range models NMM shows the pressure deepening to 972mb as it passes to my east, and the ARW shows it deepening to 976mb to my east. Both models slow down its progression and miss giving Cape Cod, MA a 12"+ storm by 20 miles. I probably expect this will come over us instead. Why? Given that the stronger pressure falls couplet develops as the low moves southeast of the BM on the order of 2mb/hour for a 6 hour period, this period coincides with its closest approach to SNE and therefore should only expect the comma head and CCB to expand more than modeled. Right now the H7 and H85 lows strengthen instead of weaken as they head to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Pressure falls to the southeast of the Nantucket, MA buoy has better pressure falls, but only on the order of around -0.03in. So the intensification process has just begun, but it is not quite as intense as it will be after 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like it pulses precip on the trough as it swings down and through. MM5 was really pretty good with yesterdays trough BUT it blew max amounts terribly which is expected no model will nail that. Question is, is it doing it again and we may see much heavier QPF a little north? I don't think this is going to be a smooth accum line this time like we see drawn on TV...it'll have some north south ridges for sure. Models are interesting. It has a piece of lift getting shoved to the nw and rotating down, seemingly due to an inv trough.This is what gives central mass and ern CT their snow. This feature pivots down, but then the comma head gets close and clips se areas with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Peeking sun has been replaced by heavy, dark cloud cover. Looks great with the fresh snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Models are interesting. It has a piece of lift getting shoved to the nw and rotating down, seemingly due to an inv trough.This is what gives central mass and ern CT their snow. This feature pivots down, but then the comma head gets close and clips se areas with snow. scott what time do the models have the LIFT pushed back nw due to a inv. trough like feature? i.e when does this lift reach KTAN, KORH thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Models are interesting. It has a piece of lift getting shoved to the nw and rotating down, seemingly due to an inv trough.This is what gives central mass and ern CT their snow. This feature pivots down, but then the comma head gets close and clips se areas with snow. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think it may have even been a bit more than that..but yeah at least a foot. I think it was in PNS..or maybe someone posted from there. Not sure what part of Attleboro that report was from, but I would say probably about 10.5 inches was it for me. Had to laugh as I watched 2-3 dark bands fizzle from different directions before reaching me, although I did have some CF enhancement for a while. Can't officially say because I snapped my yardstick last February in that Blizzard that turned into a major Flizzard, forgot to buy a new one, which reminds me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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