Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml Take a look at that guys, what a beauty if right and probably not quite done trending if it's on the right track. Jump it to the coast a little earlier and I probably get dry slotted It's a slightly different evolution on the NAM that pulls it together. It holds back more energy in the diving s/w...so that kind of dumps off the coast a little later forming up the new low but not doing much with it. Then the main PV with the pretty intense energy comes down and noses up into PA before jumping to/phasing with the old s/w. It's a delicate interaction. The NAM is really showing a super intense vortmax, tightly wound too coming right up under us and at one point around 42 we have a vertically stacked low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Eh, both I guess. I still want to see the rest of the suite, but messenger gets his storm 3 fetish it appears. It's mine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 not too shabby there on the NAM...5"+ for a good chunk of SNE. Yup ..all from 2 seperate inverted troughs..pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't know what it all means, but the 00z RGEM/GEM, 12z NAM, 00z GEFS/EURO ensemble means, to an extent the 00z EURO/UKMET models are in good agreement. Ensemble means are still a little iffy, especially the 6z GEFS mean which decreased the amount of QPF, but overall a nice placement for the low. Right now we need to see how the 12z GFS reacts. It would be nice to get a consensus on this about 24-36 hours out for a change. The evolution of the H5 pattern will be critical. If that arctic shortwave catches the polar front running shortwave we will be looking at a bomb. Question is can we get that phase? Or is this just the SPV moving through with its own energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I will try and take comfort in that. Right now it is Jan 6th and from the coast of Virginia to NYC, many areas have had more snow then me in Maine. Its frustrating, But keep the faith it will snow here at some point if we miss out on this one and next weeks, We will have our chances.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hell...3-6" in eastern CT if NAM is right. We'll see if any other models catch onto the idea. But really starting to think at least eastern areas get into some more snow on Sunday...even the 0z GFS last night brushed them with a couple inches. Certainly possible. I just went conservatively with that just b/c I don't know what the lift looks like I usually wait for the models to update on unisys or on plymouth so I can see 700mb VV's. Certainly a nice plume of moisture coming in off the ocean though so just a little convergence/lift and boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, I'd hold off on the 6-12" until the rest of the suite comes in...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You are..most of our snow comes from 4:00pm on today..You'll be too low I'm not including what happens late tomorrow/Sunday in my totals...that I think counts as a separate event. From today's system though I don't think we see more than a widespread 1-3''...any totals higher than that will be on the isolated side and not really widespread IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I will try and take comfort in that. Right now it is Jan 6th and from the coast of Virginia to NYC, many areas have had more snow then me in Maine. You've got plenty of company. Most NE ski areas are reporting under 50% terrain open. http://boston.snocountry.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm happy...Things couldn't be working out any better for a long snowy weekend yeah good run. would like to see some of the big boys agree with it...but even a toned down version would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm not including what happens late tomorrow/Sunday in my totals...that I think counts as a separate event. From today's system though I don't think we see more than a widespread 1-3''...any totals higher than that will be on the isolated side and not really widespread IMO. Once the band moves in it'll drop a solid 2-5 inches of snow..1-3 is too low...that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, I'd hold off on the 6-12" until the rest of the suite comes in...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hartford school are getting out early Kids these days are such spoiled little brats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yup ..all from 2 seperate inverted troughs..pretty cool This does not equal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not bad for sne, It sucks up here.......... Wait....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This does not equal: On that last NAM image I see a clearly defined Norlun trough extending from se of LI all the way into Eastern canada..It most certainly is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tolland schools closing early. Me FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Look at OKX radar. Must be ripping in ne NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tolland schools closing early. Me FTW 10AM Observation Mostly Sunny 26F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Once the band moves in it'll drop a solid 2-5 inches of snow..1-3 is too low...that's all I'm not sold out how far east the bands makes it, in fact I could see it beginning to fall apart as it traverses eastward, we begin to lose a great deal of lift as we head through the evening hours, take a look at 700mb VV maps, really nothing to scream at. I don't think 2-5'' will be the widespread norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Look at OKX radar. Must be ripping in ne NJ. probably some nice hourly rates there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hartford school are getting out early Kids these days are such spoiled little brats. And we wonder why kids are such wimps these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On that last NAM image I see a clearly defined Norlun trough extending from se of LI all the way into Eastern canada..It most certainly is Which is attached to a 984ish low with closed contours at almost all levels that is pounding southern/eastern areas with heavy no trough snows. All a moot point anyway. At 42 hours on the NAM - we have a better chance of seeing the Easter Bunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hartford school are getting out early Kids these days are such spoiled little brats. Says the 22 year-old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Would be really nice to see that late Sat Sunday solution pan out for E.Mass....what's the QPF on that again?? Boston mets didn't seem very enthused this morning about that....sat-sun event....or are they just waiting for the ball to drop and we get more then meets the eye... Have a great weekend folks! Craig at Northeastweathereye.com Hull Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Tolland schools closing early. Me FTW Ridiculous. We won't see a flake until 5-6 pm, if we see any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ridiculous. We won't see a flake until 5-6 pm, if we see any. We'll see plenty of snow later..but they really should have had the full day..that snow day they had in november was a worse decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ridiculous. We won't see a flake until 5-6 pm, if we see any. Mass hysteria some of which we're responsible for even here. They endanger more lives by forcing parents to run around trying to get out of work, having others pick their kids up etc...for what? Snow by 2-4pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Which is attached to a 984ish low with closed contours at almost all levels that is pounding southern/eastern areas with heavy no trough snows. All a moot point anyway. At 42 hours on the NAM - we have a better chance of seeing the Easter Bunny. yeah it's the nam...we'll see what happens. would be a fun event if it panned out. OT - i just noticed that you are a posting machine - 1500 in like 3 weeks!! how the heck do you have time to do that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And we wonder why kids are such wimps these days. Exactly. In Kevin's day you either walked, or rode the brontosaurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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