Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 OMG look at that inverted trough exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Almost looks like the GEM...lol. RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Call it what you will, it's still an inverted trough. Not really unless you're speaking very roughly about the surface. It's a closed low all the way through from the surface to 700mb. Weakly at the surface, but this isn't your classic inverted trough pounding SE areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ? it brings a pretty good shield of snow up towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My experience-when the RGEM and NAM agree, it's usually pretty good It's one model but looks a lot like the RGEM. We're finally seeing the progression come to fruition with all centers closing off under us and viola, blizzardo. Compact little bugger though but that's the nature of this beast shall it form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 also to add, as of yesterday I didn't have faith in this Sunday system getting any farther west than SE MA...but after glancing at the latest NAM...come to poppa! Maybe the RGEM was onto something afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 as for today...doesn't look like anyone east of BDR...or maybe HVN gets into any significant action until nightfall. Gonna be a long day watching that band inch eastward. Unfortunately it may also ease up in intensity as it does so. Really looks like only a 1-3" event east of 91...maybe a couple isolated 4" amounts where ratios max out. School thankfully still open here with no early dismissal either...and if they're smart they will be able to fit in a full day. Towns like Guilford and Madison closing early though...even though I could see them not seeing another flake until after 4pm today Virtually what I have been Mr. Kevin says I'm too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Almost looks like the GEM...lol. crazy. it's such a fickle interaction. hopefully something other than the NAM will go this way at midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM. Eh, both I guess. I still want to see the rest of the suite, but messenger gets his storm 3 fetish it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 it brings a pretty good shield of snow up towards us. Thanks,good news.This week has been so crazy with the models i have no idea whats going lol,but it has been agood learning expeirence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM's been heading this direction for the past 36 hours or so with more interaction between the two pieces of energy that rotate out of the ULL, consequently sharpening the wave and shifting the surface low closer to land. GGEM sort of jumped ahead and stole the thunder and beat it to the punch but this run pretty much confirms the trend of the model for the past handful of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 OMG look at that inverted trough El blizzardo When's NH gonna catch a break!!! arghhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats all of SNE--esp you SE regions. Looks like I might get to drive in the snow to MD today and on the way home Sunday. Not quite--but almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Virtually what I have been Mr. Kevin says I'm too low. I'm with you...I've been suspecting it since yesterday as well...but was kind of holding off hope that models were underplaying the mesoband a bit. But they've been pretty consistent petering the thing out as it move east as well as speeding it up a bit. I just don't see how anyone east of I-91 gets more than maybe 0.2" QPF out of this thing...so gonna take some good ratios to get up to 4"...not impossible and I still think a couple places will do it...but it won't be widespread. I'm actually a little more comfortable that this thing likely doesn't move in until after dark here on the shoreline. Good chance we eek above freezing today down here, and if snowfall rates were light, I was concerned about daytime accumulations...better shot with the band moving in after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Eh, both I guess. I still want to see the rest of the suite, but messenger gets his storm 3 fetish it appears. Yeah what a terrible win if it happens, everyone gets more snow from the storm than the death trough. Sure to the western/nw flank it's a trough signature, but it's winding up a closed low for a time down south of us. It's a fickle interaction as Phil says and we need a lot of agreement because the NAM has pulled this stunt recently with NYC and that vanished. Model support FTW would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, Maine gets the royal screwjob out of this, how depressing. So many solutions so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like some spots in CT could also potentially pick up another 1-3''...maybe spot higher amounts as well on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 not too shabby there on the NAM...5"+ for a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm with you...I've been suspecting it since yesterday as well...but was kind of holding off hope that models were underplaying the mesoband a bit. But they've been pretty consistent petering the thing out as it move east as well as speeding it up a bit. I just don't see how anyone east of I-91 gets more than maybe 0.2" QPF out of this thing...so gonna take some good ratios to get up to 4"...not impossible and I still think a couple places will do it...but it won't be widespread. I'm actually a little more comfortable that this thing likely doesn't move in until after dark here on the shoreline. Good chance we eek above freezing today down here, and if snowfall rates were light, I was concerned about daytime accumulations...better shot with the band moving in after dark. Yeah I don't have a great feeling at all about the mesoscale banding setting up that far east either, which is why I kept the highest snowfall totals confined to western CT/MA...they should also see some upslope enhancement as well. I'm not really impressed for how long the best features stays together or for how long they last. I think were looking at a real short window of heavier snowfall and this will have a major impact on accumulations. Like you said, were going to need to see some good ratios and we'd also need to see some pretty nice snowfall rates too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not bad! Not bad for sne, It sucks up here.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Call me the wet rag but the 42 hour NAM is just too good to be true down here. Low's closing off through the mid levels just thumping snow. There's been so many changes in tight even though the trend really seems to be good I just can't get too excited. I wish this popped a little later, 42 is the NAM witching hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like some spots in CT could also potentially pick up another 1-3''...maybe spot higher amounts as well on Sunday. hell...3-6" in eastern CT if NAM is right. We'll see if any other models catch onto the idea. But really starting to think at least eastern areas get into some more snow on Sunday...even the 0z GFS last night brushed them with a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NCEP Model Diagnostic....those guys cannot catch a break. They've applied sound reasoning all along and it doesn't seem to matter. So volatile this year. I wonder if they are busy searching for data errors. Be kind of critical if a RAOB was off under the diving s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow, Maine gets the royal screwjob out of this, how depressing. So many solutions so far... Don't let it get you down ... it's model mayhem. We still stand a decent chance. Let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 wonder how much middle ground there is in this set-up? about half the sref members support, in general, what the NAM is doing. the other half or so are not too great...basically dry for a chunk of E MA. probably shows just how subtle an interaction we have going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Call me the wet rag but the 42 hour NAM is just too good to be true down here. Low's closing off through the mid levels just thumping snow. There's been so many changes in tight even though the trend really seems to be good I just can't get too excited. I wish this popped a little later, 42 is the NAM witching hour. It's not like its the first model to show some decent snows though. Maybe overdone a bit...but even the 0z GFS from last night gave a solid 1-4" to SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah it's definitely a nice run. good snows in most of SNE I'm happy...Things couldn't be working out any better for a long snowy weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Virtually what I have been Mr. Kevin says I'm too low. You are..most of our snow comes from 4:00pm on today..You'll be too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Don't let it get you down ... it's model mayhem. We still stand a decent chance. Let's see how it plays out. I will try and take comfort in that. Right now it is Jan 7th and from the coast of Virginia to NYC, many areas have had more snow then me in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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