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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Scott (Mess), I thought the 18z RGEM looks ok at this point.

It does. It's probably the NAM minus the multi meso's.

Take a look at 500mb on the RGEM/NAM vs the others. Notice on the RGEM/NAM the nose of that lobe of energy is pointing to NYC from NJ. On the GFS and others it is pointing OTS. Is that feedback related? The GFS and some others are jumping the 500mb right towards what's about to be some impressive UVV's.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_024l.gif

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/12UTC/avn_c700_h30.gif

It could go either way but my guess is if we see the 0z runs roll in with the energy pointing towards NYC/LI we'll see vastly different/better solutions tonight. If it is feedback it usually vanishes inside of about 24 hours. So that'd be tonight. I'm optimistic but into this with an expectation about 50% lower than KTAN right at the moment

Models can't seem to figure out where to place the low, way out by the convection forming, or back maybe where it better fit?

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Could somebody with more wx knowledge than I explain the dynamics behind the sizable dry slot that starts about 10mi south of Rt 2 but keeps filling in before it gets here. (Whatever the cause I'm quite grateful)

Thanks!

chris whatever it is/ was radar really has the look of something trying to fill in ....esp ova w. ma

enjoy your snow tonite !

and if it starts really coming down take some pics.

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Upton AFD 5:06 :thumbsup:

INTERESTING SCENARIO STILL ONGOING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE

BETWEEN APPROACHING FRONT/MID LEVEL VORT AND OFFSHORE LOW...PLUS

CONVECTIVE FEEDER BAND FROM THE SE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE ALL

CONVERGED ON SW CT AND BROUGHT OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO PARTS OF

FAIRFIELD COUNTY. EXPECT MUCH THE SAME OVER MUCH OF NEW HAVEN COUNTY

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE

EAST AS BANDING WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS

CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...ISOLATED LOW TOPPED TSTMS...SOME WITH LOW

LEVEL ROTATION...DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE JUST S OF THE

OFFICE...QUITE RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID

SUMMER!

Awesome. And as said earlier, didn't hear anything but that huge gust of wind early this afternoon had to be a thunderstorm. The air has been perfectly still otherwise. The band pulled north fast but that sure was fun. Upton deserves recognition once again for a job well done. We needed those watches yesterday, and they mentioned moderate to high confidence of advisory snows a couple days ago. Beating that was very unpredictable and required a lot to work out perfectly right, so no warnings is fine. I sincerely hope those to the north/east get at least some of these bands holding up.

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chris whatever it is/ was radar really has the look of something trying to fill in ....esp ova w. ma

enjoy your snow tonite !

and if it starts really coming down take some pics.

Thanks. Will do a few night photos if we start to rip otherwise some nice sunrise shots.

Although I believe it was a different set up I saw the same thing happen Feb 27/28 of last year when this narrow corridor over the Western RT 2 corridor just kept filling in all night.

:snowman:

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