sankaty Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just under and inch of quality snow in Middletown, CT. Moderate to sometimes heavy with great dendrites. Not a breath of wind. Hoping for 4", but having a hard time getting a sense of how long we'll be in the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's out, pretty big cutback. I think BOX has the right idea. 1-3 canal region building to 2-4 mid cape, perhaps 3-6 out by Phil. Final call later, I think it makes a sharp move towards death or back towards good snows in SE. Don't see it sticking with this solution...going to be all or nothing. The western edge of this could be a lot of light snows too. 850-500 RH/VV shows this potential to the CT valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The ensembles are a decent distance east of the BM, but I don't know if they are useful at this point. Scott I never follow them in this close but what's the thought process behind that? They're run on a coarse grid right? Do you find they lose usefulness inside of a certain period? I want to get excited about Saturday night but I just can't yet. Such a fine interaction I'm not confident anything happens but am very hopeful. Feast or famine situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's out, pretty big cutback. I think BOX has the right idea. 1-3 canal region building to 2-4 mid cape, perhaps 3-6 out by Phil. Final call later, I think it makes a sharp move towards death or back towards good snows in SE. Don't see it sticking with this solution...going to be all or nothing. BOX has 1-3 back to HFD dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Absolutely crazy snow going to commence in the next 10 minutes. The band is only strengthening, wooo. SN+ now anyways. Yes, complete whiteout here, closing in on 6", may end up near 8"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 should be 4-5" incoming here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Scott I never follow them in this close but what's the thought process behind that? They're run on a coarse grid right? Do you find they lose usefulness inside of a certain period? I want to get excited about Saturday night but I just can't yet. Such a fine interaction I'm not confident anything happens but am very hopeful. Feast or famine situation. Well I think under 48hrs is becoming OP time, but that's just me. Maybe in some situations they are useful. Set your expectations low for Saturday Night. If you get 6"...awesome, but this setup could disappoint too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just throwing this out, think they're doing a very good job at BOX, this is all you can do at this point. Just like today if it comes together someone could easily get 10", if it shifts a little more bleck "OUR PRELIMINARY THINKING IS FOR 3-6" FOR SE MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS E OF PYM-EWB LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW. HOWEVER...THIS IS TRACK DEPENDENT AND ANY DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL AFFECT THE SNOW ACCUM. WE HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE AN ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SE MA AND RI. LOW PROB FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. BECOMING WINDY ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING POSSIBLE.-- End Changed Discussion -- " My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, complete whiteout here, closing in on 6", may end up near 8"??? Some good solid winter punishment for you, young man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Scott, what do you think it will be like for the Outer Cape of Cape Cod, MA, like from Harwich, MA to Orleans or thereabouts? Will this be like a dangerous comma head where the precip rotates in from the SE to NW into the region with a great sizable band, or will this just be a light to moderate snow event with nothing greater than 1"/hr snowfall rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes, complete whiteout here, closing in on 6", may end up near 8"??? Yeah, it's freakin' SN++, your elevation FTW but still mighty impressive here. I'll measure when it's done which hopefully could take until 7. We're not even in the heaviest yet. It's also getting up to east of Danbury. Can someone up there take a run at 12? I don't see why not if they already have 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL at what is coming when we're already in whiteout, look at LIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Scott, what do you think it will be like for the Outer Cape of Cape Cod, MA, like from Harwich, MA to Orleans or thereabouts? Will this be like a dangerous comma head where the precip rotates in from the SE to NW into the region with a great sizable band, or will this just be a light to moderate snow event with nothing greater than 1"/hr snowfall rates? I don't know. It's very early to determine that. It's possible there could be a strong band in that, but it's way too early to figure that out...especially with models ticking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL at what is coming when we're already in whiteout, look at LIS! Whiteout! Fun running around with kids and dog under floods. End up around 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks Scott, just asking, it would have been really awesome to see the H5 low actually strengthening instead of status quo or weakening a tad as it moved to my south and southeast. I think this is the one problem we have with this system from getting a full blown blizzard. It is unfortunate that I won't be getting a blizzard before I go to Hot San Antonio, TX lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Scott (Mess), I thought the 18z RGEM looks ok at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Insane rates here since just before 4:00. 5" in two hours and still ripping - 28/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Stripe of 10-12" in here...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Brother told me rain at beach in Milford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Absolutely crazy snow going to commence in the next 10 minutes. The band is only strengthening, wooo. SN+ now anyways. Just about done here on the western edge of it--about 5 inches on the ground here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just eyeballing it I'll say 9" in Trumbull. Really amazing. Kudos to the NAM for focusing on SW CT for 3 days now. I do believe in Norluns, I do, I do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well I think under 48hrs is becoming OP time, but that's just me. Maybe in some situations they are useful. Set your expectations low for Saturday Night. If you get 6"...awesome, but this setup could disappoint too. I'm expecting about 1" here as of right now, more if I can get those pseudo OES bands going. I have zero faith in all models at this point. I want to see the 0z but if the GFS map is close to right blah. I get the feeling this is going to be like being in Hartford today. Snowing hard 40-50 miles away. Thing is there's still some small apparent errors as the 18z rolls towards 6h but it's hard to believe a 30 mile difference in placement of energy or a few units of strength is going to make a big difference at this point. What is odd is the handling at 500mb beyond 18 hours. It looks a little bit like feedback but that's kind of hard to swallow with most every model doing it. IE, it shouldn't be so far east. It's interesting to me that the NAM and RGEM handle it differently at 24 hours. They're both tucking it into NJ verus escaping offshore. Still a critical difference. Comical that even with the 500mb presentation very similar the RGEM and NAM have substantially different surface evolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Stripe of 10-12" in here...??? For sure for the hills/inland...I thought it might have to be up east of Danbury, but this is unbelievable and we're mere moments from the 45 dBZ stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Moderate snow for about ten minutes has the ground coated. Would love to get a few hours of this but I doubt it. As we all know, snow doesn't accumulate down here. But, I did miss the sunset tonight. I heard it was special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Excellent, this band has just parked over us for the past hour. Everything covered. Gorgeous dendrites. .5" of pixie dust. SN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 For sure for the hills/inland...I thought it might have to be up east of Danbury, but this is unbelievable and we're mere moments from the 45 dBZ stuff. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 in shelon now around 6". but dad just said 9" home in seymour and heaviest snow just starting! wow might challenge the blizzard snow totals if this band could move slow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Snow is minutes away. a snowy weekend for all is coming.. Will SE areas mix with rain tomorrow nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A few towns down there will come in with 12-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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