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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Really not holding much hope for here for this event. NAM came in SE of 12z...thinking maybe an inch later tonight as this decaying band pivots through. NBD here. Congrats SW CT. Maybe someone can get 8"+

Yeah, I'm starting to think 1-2'' will be lucky here.

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Still manages to kiss us with the .5" line.

Bob long as they all stay close at 18z...we can only be happy. I hate the old saying it'll come down to nowcasting but if it played out like this forecast map it would.

Let's hope the 18z OP GFS rolls west, that the ENS stay the same, RGEM maybe stays right in the ballpark too. Let's get a full data sampling tonight and take it from there.

Lately it seems models do much better once energy is into the base of the "troughs" and that will mostly be the case at 0z.

The NAM made a subtle shift with the strength of the initial energy. If OSU is onto something that may just be an error. Either way kind of amazing we are seeing so much jumping around. I am almost certain we won't see two micro lows, we will see a more impressive low out there up until the 500 overruns it.

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Nothing like 35dbz echoes with these sick ratios.

FWIW the euro ensembles go just se of the BM for Sat Night, but lots of spread to the east and west of the low center it seems.

Thanks Scott.

Do you get QPF from the EC ENS?

I'm guessing you're seeing the same east/west split of which low will dominate. If it's the west low great we'll have fun, east this could be a crushing last minute three pointer by the warministas.

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Bob long as they all stay close at 18z...we can only be happy. I hate the old saying it'll come down to nowcasting but if it played out like this forecast map it would.

Let's hope the 18z OP GFS rolls west, that the ENS stay the same, RGEM maybe stays right in the ballpark too. Let's get a full data sampling tonight and take it from there.

Lately it seems models do much better once energy is into the base of the "troughs" and that will mostly be the case at 0z.

The NAM made a subtle shift with the strength of the initial energy. If OSU is onto something that may just be an error. Either way kind of amazing we are seeing so much jumping around. I am almost certain we won't see two micro lows, we will see a more impressive low out there up until the 500 overruns it.

00z tonight is the endgame for me. After that it will be a nowcast watching the radar.

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Thanks Scott.

Do you get QPF from the EC ENS?

I'm guessing you're seeing the same east/west split of which low will dominate. If it's the west low great we'll have fun, east this could be a crushing last minute three pointer by the warministas.

I can only look at qpf probs, which are not in yet.

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Nothing like 35dbz echoes with these sick ratios.

FWIW the euro ensembles go just se of the BM for Sat Night, but lots of spread to the east and west of the low center it seems.

Well west i hope - lol.

I'm out. Going pond skating out back. I'm going go to enjoy these flurries in a better setting than my keyboard.

:snowman:

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