Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM holding back some of the energy this time - started right at 0h and that's well supported by the WV/RUC etc. What we see is a little less vorticity at the coast a few hours earlier 18h than prior runs with more behind it. Kicker or does that buy us time to get it up the coast more? It looks to me like it's not going to sneak the energy around as fast... Still looks good at 24h imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAM may come in pretty nice...but it is still suffering from the phase shift issue that Baroclinicity instability posted about earlier. If you compare 500mb on the 18z NAM at 24 hours vs. the 12z NAM at 30 hours...nearly the entire height field is shifted east by maybe 50-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol they've been getting hit a lot harder than the DXR ASOS site. Looks like some kind of convergence there. steal a news truck and get on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The great metropolis of Harwinton, pop ~5000 lol what's your elevation. seems the town has a spread from 450 to 1100. ya echos appear to be dying as they move n toward your area....not a good sign for kev either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 steal a news truck and get on it... I'm in sweats on the couch.... ain't moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAM may come in pretty nice...but it is still suffering from the phase shift issue that Baroclinicity instability posted about earlier. If you compare 500mb on the 18z NAM at 24 hours vs. the 12z NAM at 30 hours...nearly the entire height field is shifted east by maybe 50-100 miles. Can you post that link again OSU and I don't think anyone would mind if you explained it here - if you don't mind? it's speeding things up a bit now will it allow it into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'm in sweats on the couch.... it ain't moving. Take a blue pill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just an Observation from Trumbull, CT it started snowing about 11 lightly picking up in intensity around 12/1pm snowing moderately-heavy. We have about 3" of snow out there. (eyeballing it off the cars/walls out of the office window) someone measured about 40min ago at 2.5 so it might be a bit more as we had a heavy band on us that is just lightening up. RTE 111 is a mess with traffic moving about 5mph both up and down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is there going to be any accumulating snow E of I-91 in Ma. from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam cuts 1'st inv. trough precip down ....especially from an area of about worcester up thru S vt over to say....lowell (traingle) on panel 24 nothing like watchin a storm 5 days then gettin your ballz squeezed in a vice with 12-18 hours to go. and i would def. put more stock into this then the ARW OR NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Someone east of DXR is gonna have over 6" easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah...I'd like to be in southbury, ct right now. Me too..my friend lives there he said it's ripping, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam cuts 1'st inv. trough precip down ....especially from an area of about worcester up thru S vt over to say....lowell (traingle) on panel 24 nothing like watchin a storm 5 days then gettin your ballz squeezed in a vice with 12-18 hours to go. And on the other side we have NJ which was forecast to have clear skies for Saturday getting MORE snow. Ugh.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what's your elevation. seems the town has a spread from 450 to 1100. ya echos appear to be dying as they move n toward your area....not a good sign for kev either? 978' this is NOT looking good, reminds me of the storm last year where the echoes just DIED as they tried to move north. Must have something to do with the banding south of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Someone east of DXR is gonna have over 6" easily. Yup... Southbury is the town in far NW New Haven Co and they're getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Someone east of DXR is gonna have over 6" easily. perhaps by 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM loves the micro lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 perhaps by 4 pm. It's gotta be absolutely pouring dendrites there, with these ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6" in Danbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can you post that link again OSU and I don't think anyone would mind if you explained it here - if you don't mind? it's speeding things up a bit now will it allow it into SNE? NAM phase shift If anyone would like to make these images into an animation...you could probably see it clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6" in Danbury Really? Wow my 3-6" call just barely worked out or maybe I'm going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.ct.gov/dot/cwp/view.asp?a=2354&q=401164 Southbury cam right near the Newtown line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 2.1 so far and SN. Congrats Upton. Guessing we'll end up around 3. Not too shabby. Beautiful to see the snow sitting on everything as there is no wind. We had one strong gust right at the onset. I'm guessing that was possibly a storm nearby? Didn't hear or see anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nam cuts 1'st inv. trough precip down ....especially from an area of about worcester up thru S vt over to say....lowell (traingle) on panel 24 nothing like watchin a storm 5 days then gettin your ballz squeezed in a vice with 12-18 hours to go. and i would def. put more stock into this then the ARW OR NMM Yeah, since this morning NWS has cut totals here from 3-7" potential to 2-4" potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Is there going to be any accumulating snow E of I-91 in Ma. from this? i think if i was a betting man i would be betting heavily on the UNDER. and i know all along the precip shield is moving on time....i just think it will fall apart....and not really get up. and sat nite looks maybe 50/50 for SE mass....so i'm saying T-2 lollies E OF 91 And within 15 miles of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 6" in Danbury LOL, maybe someone gets 8-9" then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monroe Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Had nice heavy dump going here - picked up ~3. Still coming down moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Really? Wow my 3-6" call just barely worked out or maybe I'm going to bust. Yeah the heaviest banding has been relatively isolated along I-84 from DXR east. Most areas probably get 3 or 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM loves the micro lows. LOL what scares me is without the western one this is some flurries. It's really struggling on which one to focus. Bob's right maybe a last minute deal. the global models seem to just split the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL, maybe someone gets 8-9" then. There getting crushed, finished with 5-6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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