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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

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Unbelievable! Got an e-mail from my school district at noon that they are releasing the kids at 1:00. For what? Radar looks nice to our SW but it will take a few hours to get here.

I suspect Ryan or whoever said it was right. Lawsuits.

Once a few schools cancel if it did snow and a nearby school district had an accident some lawyer would say they didn't exercise due diligence and use surrounding districts against them.

Scott what type of QPF down by the canal?

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Do people not know what an inverted trough is? Its a bowing back of the isobars from a low center...and usually there is a focus of heavier precip along it. It doesn't have to be a norlun....those are a specific type of inverted trough.

You can get comma-head type precip on an inverted trough...the main difference though between these types of storms and a traditional CCB is that you are lacking huge inflow from the atlantic....you are relying a lot more on PVA and upper level divergence vs isentropic lift and ml frontogenesis.

I was not clear... I understand why you answered it this way, but I appreciate it.

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I suspect Ryan or whoever said it was right. Lawsuits.

Once a few schools cancel if it did snow and a nearby school district had an accident some lawyer would say they didn't exercise due diligence and use surrounding districts against them.

Scott what type of QPF down by the canal?

About 0.15 to 0.2 by 00z tomorrow. Storm total around 0.4". 0.5" just to your south.

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About 0.15 to 0.2 by 00z tomorrow. Storm total around 0.4". 0.5" just to your south.

Sounds good. Seems to have the same general theme as the MM5 and probably even the RGEM/NAM. It's just a matter of miles and tiny timing differences. The moisture coming up from the carolinas can only get so far north before the m/l center overtakes it and even though it's wrapping up it's still on the move.

Interesting uptick in QPF for the trough around EMA for this first part. Most models seem to target a band of snow in SE CT that pivots up through RI towards Cape Ann. Be interested to see how that plays out but it may be forming now over central/eastern LI.

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Sounds good. Seems to have the same general theme as the MM5 and probably even the RGEM/NAM. It's just a matter of miles and tiny timing differences. The moisture coming up from the carolinas can only get so far north before the m/l center overtakes it and even though it's wrapping up it's still on the move.

Interesting uptick in QPF for the trough around EMA for this first part. Most models seem to target a band of snow in SE CT that pivots up through RI towards Cape Ann. Be interested to see how that plays out but it may be forming now over central/eastern LI.

that's my interest. i'm thinking i'll get .05-.1 tonite. just don't think much will be left if i'm waiting for the band by danbury to pivot thru...but if it's something new and a seperate band then maybe i could squeak out .15-.20

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Scott, do you think this is one of those cases where the EURO is underestimating the precip, or is it adequate for this setup?

Well given that we don't have a real good CCB, it could be accurate. It's not like it seems "funny" to me when I look at the qpf. It's one of those things where 20-30 miles north will make a big difference.

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Near the North End of Boston....across the street...nothing in the air yet but the smell of calzones. All models suggest there is HUGE bust potential in that someone can end up with 8-9 inches of fluff but 15 miles away could end up with an inch.

Stop by Dino's and grab me a Prosciutto with Mozzarella and Basil please.

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