Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 My goal wasn't to get into a flame war....it just derails threads. I think for people to understand at what I was saying about the inverted trough....take a look at the NAM....it has a 980s low centered just south of Block Island....yet the precip barely gets W of an ORH//IJD line....normally you would have precip well west of there on a low centered jst S of block island. Its the lack of mid-level inflow that is confining the precip to a smaller area in E and SE SNE focused on the inverted trough or the isobar weakness. There is definitely some larger scale synoptic lift going on there, but its focused in a narrower area than usual. At closer look at 36 the differences between the NAM and OP GFS is very simple. The NAM rolls the s'w energy up the front of the 500mb low. The GFS and other easties dont wrap it into but break it NE. It's the exact reversal of earlier handling. The resulting mid level centers jump to it just a little east of the NAM position. It's really as simple as spinning a tennis ball on a rope in circles....the GFS and the rest let it go a little earlier. I dont know which is right, and theres absoultely no clear trend. The OP GFS does grab it, but around 30 it lets it escape so it is just a little further east before it comes north and redevelops. As far as the flame war understood, it starts with comments about work and posting frequency. But it didn't stop there and eventually it spills over. Anyone can see that. My bad for responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 God this incessant b**ch session about an inverted trough quasi ccb is painful. Just ****ing drop it already. Man up. It's going to snow, and potentially snow a lot in SE MA/ CC come Saturday night/ Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro seems like it wants to make things a little more interesting through hr 36. PV a little further south and now sn back into NYC at hr 30. WOW NYC??? BOO ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Euro gives CC advisory snow from the 2nd low it looks like....lighter snows for the rest of the area.You could include over to S RI as part of the advisory snows. Its looking like the trend from last nite/ early moring stopped in it's tracks......i guess w/0 further track changes (lol) there is enough wiggle room to get more precip to break out than modeled thou esp S of the pike ....E of RI/CT Border on this one......are the winds out of the NE as the moisture runs over S/SE SNE>>>..could this enhance precip more than modeled QPF (i.e likely ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what time do you think it reaches you? it slow bleeding type movement makes it a tuff call. i would say 5-7pm. i think besides our inverted trough swinging thru SNE today.....that the N shore of ma SE NH and SW Maine could have a Norlun get going this afternoon/ evening. i wouldn't bet big on this but i am intrigued MM5 and nam don't have it....so the radar may probably just die down or not. 4:00-5:00 ish..looks great down to the SW..should rip tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It does try to stick an inv trough out further west than what 00z had. It actually gets the big vv's into eastern LI and south coast of RI/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 i remember that! great surprise! yes it was. although I did look back...doesn't even remotely resemble the current setup. but still, goes to show we should keep an eye on Sat night/Sun. I think we'll know by the 0z runs if there's any legit threat to eastern CT. Gut still says it's only a threat to SE MA and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It does try to stick an inv trough out further west than what 00z had. It actually gets the big vv's into eastern LI and south coast of RI/MA. Gangbusters big? How would you rate it vs 0z? It's not much of a change it sounds like but just a smidge better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 snow back to NYC for sat night? any appreciable QPF? does it skirt S CT at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Gangbusters big? How would you rate it vs 0z? It's not much of a change it sounds like but just a smidge better? Well yes gangbusters over ern LI especially. I think this is more from strong low level convergence in that neck of the woods. I like how it brought higher qpf west, but it didn't really spread the wealth further nw. The 00z run actually had more qpf for my area over to ORH. In fact, wait until you see hr 48. The upper level forcing is so strong, that it rips back the low sw, in an inv trough type fashion. This actually prevents any good qpf from moving further north. I see both characteristics of this system. QPF clustered near the center and bowing back of surface isobars would indicate inv trough characteristics. However it does develop mid level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I wonder if it just snows continuously from tonight thru Sunday morning..That would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 snow back to NYC for sat night? any appreciable QPF? does it skirt S CT at all? any mets have the QPF for NYC/ PVD/ Newport/ Tan/CC i.e is the QPF LINE run pretty much due W-E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Light snow now perhaps .2 down or just shy of that. very wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well yes gangbusters over ern LI especially. I think this is more from strong low level convergence in that neck of the woods. I like how it brought higher qpf west, but it didn't really spread the wealth further nw. The 00z run actually had more qpf for my area over to ORH. In fact, wait until you see hr 48. The upper level forcing is so strong, that it rips back the low sw, in an inv trough type fashion. This actually prevents any good qpf from moving further north. I see both characteristics of this system. QPF clustered near the center and bowing back of surface isobars would indicate inv trough characteristics. However it does develop mid level lows. I thought Will said it had snow over all of SNE Sat nite/Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Big step towards the NAM esp with the inverted trough for Sat nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I thought Will said it had snow over all of SNE Sat nite/Sunday? It does but its only an inch or so. Maybe two inside of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 looks like the higher elevations around danbury are about to get slammed for the next several hours. i.e pine mountain /bethel / newtown and N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 To make this simple...would someone with access to the EURO fill out this... Part 1 QPF Boston Worcester Bedford Plymouth Hyannis Part 2 QPF Boston Worcester Bedford Plymouth Hyannis Then total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I thought Will said it had snow over all of SNE Sat nite/Sunday? It does, just a little less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 To make this simple...would someone with access to the EURO fill out this... Part 1 QPF Boston Worcester Bedford Plymouth Hyannis Part 2 QPF Boston Worcester Bedford Plymouth Hyannis Then total... There's more to SNE than eastern areas. It's not an ENE fourm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There's more to SNE than eastern areas. It's not an ENE fourm Sorry...was going to add central and western areas too, but the list was getting too long And I thought most was confined to SE SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 There's more to SNE than eastern areas. It's not an ENE fourm I thought nobody lived past 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry...was going to add central and western areas too, but the list was getting too long And I thought most was confined to SE SNE. Just spread the wealth.There is nothing worse than a SE New England focus when 97% of us don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I thought nobody lived past 495. Yeah.. I can't believe noreaster would send such a blatant insult to everybody out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just spread the wealth.There is nothing worse than a SE New England focus when 7% of us don't live there fixed....P%C HAS the heavy snow icon for danbury this afternoon calling for 3-7. just intense stuff S and SE Of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just spread the wealth.There is nothing worse than a SE New England focus when 97% of us don't live there Amen. Surprising little gust of wind just now. Let's not start that up, please. Light to occasionally moderate snow. Sticking OK, could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well yes gangbusters over ern LI especially. I think this is more from strong low level convergence in that neck of the woods. I like how it brought higher qpf west, but it didn't really spread the wealth further nw. The 00z run actually had more qpf for my area over to ORH. In fact, wait until you see hr 48. The upper level forcing is so strong, that it rips back the low sw, in an inv trough type fashion. This actually prevents any good qpf from moving further north. I see both characteristics of this system. QPF clustered near the center and bowing back of surface isobars would indicate inv trough characteristics. However it does develop mid level lows. Sounds similar to the MM5 which holds precip in a very tight band. It has a nice low that elongates as the entire upper low slides/jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Being invaded here Parachutes ripping down, massive flakes, just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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