Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Time for a new thread. Here's a link to the old. 1/7 00z models came around to the idea of coastal redevelopment off the Carolina with a track right around the BM. RGEM and GGEM wnet nuclear on SNE and dropped like 1-2 feet. GFS/Ukie dropped a solid advisory/ low end warning criteria and Euro was a solid advisory event as well. 03z SREF's came in more bullish than the 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 06z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO HELP ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE SIGNALED THAT YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP W AND NW OF THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY INTO RHODE ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 06Z NAM like NE MA up into Coastal ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO HELP ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE SIGNALED THAT YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP W AND NW OF THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY INTO RHODE ISLAND. Works for me, whatever you call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO HELP ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE SIGNALED THAT YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP W AND NW OF THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND POSSIBLY INTO RHODE ISLAND. That's just like the 18z gfs from the other day. Bob I'm not loving the fact that the gfs kind of bailed at 6z. Did the euro have much of a low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's just like the 18z gfs from the other day. Bob I'm not loving the fact that the gfs kind of bailed at 6z. Did the euro have much of a low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 That's just like the 18z gfs from the other day. Bob I'm not loving the fact that the gfs kind of bailed at 6z. Did the euro have much of a low? It was modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 00z Euro Ensm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Time for a new thread. Here's a link to the old. http://www.americanw...-disco-jan-7-9/ 1/7 00z models came around to the idea of coastal redevelopment off the Carolina with a track right around the BM. RGEM and GGEM wnet nuclear on SNE and dropped like 1-2 feet. GFS/Ukie dropped a solid advisory/ low end warning criteria and Euro was a solid advisory event as well. 03z SREF's came in more bullish than the 21z. I think you should clarify--they went nuclear on Eastern SNE, correct? Don't want to inflame the weenies of GC on this (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 06Z NAM like NE MA up into Coastal ME thats what i was saying to brian last night...this new trough might be a signal that NE MA/SE NH/SW ME are the spots to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 thats what i was saying to brian last night...this new trough might be a signal that NE MA/SE NH/SW ME are the spots to be. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Typically, These end up further north then modeled, But we shall see, Just have to watch radar to see where it actually sets up......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Typically, These end up further north then modeled, But we shall see, Just have to watch radar to see where it actually sets up......... Radar love. Hopefully. If anything hits us, it's going to be a complete surprise to the third shifters at GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok thanks Osu and Bob. If we get a definitive low pressure great. I don't like the 6z gfs but I'm on the cell so it's moot to me anyway. Need a reasonable low which can respond to the dynamics coming in. Euro would get it done for an advisory event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Absolute porn, animate http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Finally off cell. NAM at 6z actually should have been much better. Offshore s/w running interference it seems but it dropped the PV south again. At 48 the 7h low is south of the 54 0z position. All very positive if it continues. The GFS I'm not even going to look at it, doesn't matter it's 20 minutes from kickoff. But was on the cliff next to Kevin when I saw the 6z gfs/nam....nam isn't bad at all, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats GC WSWarning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On radar the snow really dwindled over CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats GC WSWarning Thanks, Steve. Fun to see, but I'd hold the congratulations until there's a verification Flurries, 18.4/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats GC WSWarning Outside of coastal events that only gift Cape Cod that has got to be the narrowest area WSW I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats GC WSWarning Typhoon tips rotators are finally moving NW http://radar.weather...id=okx&loop=yes -- First tease is just missing outside of ACK. Well modeled. -- RUC/UA/WV confirm a very potent s/w coming down. One trend that is too early to be sure on with the RUC is that it's keeping it more consolidated which I'd think would be a good thing. I haven't seen a s/w this strong in that location digging under a PV since Macho Grande and I've never gotten over Macho Grande. EDIT: At the same time it should be noted the GFS at 6z tended to hold more back in the packet of energy and it stunk. Red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 On radar the snow really dwindled over CT. it may take some time for it to transit the area. remember what folks have been saying - these norlun troughs can set-up shop in one area and really pound that location and not move much. eventually, the forcing shifts and likely weakens and it will get on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Typhoon tips rotators are finally moving NW http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes -- First tease is just missing outside of ACK. Well modeled. -- RUC/UA/WV confirm a very potent s/w coming down. One trend that is too early to be sure on with the RUC is that it's keeping it more consolidated which I'd think would be a good thing. I haven't seen a s/w this strong in that location digging under a PV since Macho Grande and I've never gotten over Macho Grande. RUC says it does not snow here for twelve hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RUC says it does not snow here for twelve hours RUC blows with QPF and I never use it for it, BUT: The 12z UA/RUC/WV would seem to indicate models blew the placement of this first vorticity max...it's further NW west of Buffalo. If that's right it's probably going to change some things at 12z as some of the forcing is further NW. Ruc would move snow into western CT over the next several hours, particularly after 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM should start in a momento. Surprised but not shocked to see shifting in the 12z UA vs modeled. I'm sure that will have consequences good or bad. Can't wait for the days again of one s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM confirms RUC handling....snow doesn't do much until lunchtime into western CT, by mid afternoon it's spreading slowly east. Band is narrower than the 0z so far. Probably will have consequences for storm 3 in how it handles later energy. Comma head/whatever from storm 2 clips the cape with virga/flurries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like SREFs like inside of 495 for the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like SREFs like inside of 495 for the last storm. Up through ctrl NH and srn ME too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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